Florida Senator George LeMieux sworn in: Sept. 10, 2009

Minutes after he was sworn in Thursday, new Florida Sen. George LeMieux got an earful of advice from Vice President Joe Biden, cast his first vote -- against an Obama administration appointee -- and threatened to block passage of an energy bill that would put oil drilling rigs near the Florida shore.

The Republican also sought to tamp down speculation that he would consider taking on Florida's senior senator, Democrat Bill Nelson, in 2012. ``I'm not focused on running for any political position in 2010 or 2012,'' he told reporters after his first press conference, fielding questions on immigration, oil drilling, President Barack Obama's healthcare speech and committee posts he might seek.

Appointed by Gov. Charlie Crist to fill the remainder of retired Sen. Mel Martinez's term, LeMieux scarcely mentioned the man considered his political twin, illustrating the delicate balance he is likely to seek as he promises to be his ``own man'' in Washington. ``There are tremendous issues facing this nation, and although my time in Washington will be brief, I intend to work hard every day to address these critical challenges and serve the people of this unique, diverse and wonderful state,'' said LeMieux, who has described himself as a ``Charlie Crist Republican.''

Crist, who is running for the Senate seat in 2010, didn't attend the swearing-in. LeMieux, who orchestrated Crist's 2006 gubernatorial win, was flanked by Nelson and former Sen. Connie Mack at the ceremony. ``I've got a lot of work to do here in Florida,'' Crist said in St. Petersburg. ``I certainly wish Sen. LeMieux all the best. I'm sure he'll do great for the people of Florida.'' LeMieux's first order of the day after a staff briefing and tour of his office: a speedy oath of office administered by Biden, who, as vice president, is president of the Senate.

Ted Kennedy succession: Aug. 31, 2009

Amid fevered speculation about possible contenders for Senator Edward M. Kennedy’s seat, Gov. Deval Patrick scheduled a special election for Jan. 19 and said he would keep pushing the state legislature to change the law so he could name an interim successor.

Shortly before his death last week, Mr. Kennedy wrote legislative leaders asking them to revise the law so his seat would not stay vacant for months. The legislature indicated Monday that it would decide quickly whether to grant his request, scheduling a public hearing on the proposal for Sept. 9. Many lawmakers criticized the proposal in the days before Mr. Kennedy’s death, but legislative leaders, at least, have since hinted they would support it.

Massachusetts has not had an open Senate seat since 1984, and excitement is running high about two possible candidates in particular: Victoria Reggie Kennedy, Mr. Kennedy’s widow, and Joseph P. Kennedy II, his nephew. Ms. Kennedy reiterated on Monday that she was not interested in the seat, people close to the family said.

Joseph Kennedy, 56, a former congressman from Massachusetts, has $2 million in leftover campaign money. At a memorial service for his uncle last week, he spoke of the importance of public service and of chasing “the same goals and ideals that Senator Ted Kennedy lived his life for.” Friends say he is still considering whether to run.

Other possible contenders include Attorney General Martha Coakley, Representatives Michael E. Capuano, Stephen F. Lynch and Edward J. Markey; and former Representative Martin T. Meehan, who retired in 2007 to become chancellor of the University of Massachusetts, Lowell.

Mr. Patrick ruled himself out as a candidate on Monday, saying he was focused on winning re-election next year.

Although the seat will almost certainly go to a Democrat, several Republicans are also said to be interested in running, including Kerry Healey, who was lieutenant governor under Gov. Mitt Romney, and Michael J. Sullivan, until recently the United States attorney in Massachusetts.

RUNNING (as of Sept. 13)	NOT RUNNING
Scott Brown (GOP State Senator, Wrentham) Mike Capuano (Democratic US Rep.; Somerville) Martha Coakley (Democratic Attorney General) Stephen Lynch (Democratic US Rep.; South Boston)	Andrew Card (Former Bush White House Chief of Staff) Joe Kennedy (Former US Rep. & nephew of Ted Kennedy) Edward Markey (Democratic US Rep., Malden) Marty Meehan (Former US Rep.; U.Mass Chancellor) Christy Mihos (GOP candidate for Governor) Deval Patrick (Democratic Governor) Ed O`Reilly (Democratic Senate challenger, 2006) John Tierney (Democratic US Rep.; North Shore)

Ted Kennedy succession: Aug. 20, 2009

Senator Edward M. Kennedy, in a poignant acknowledgment of his mortality at a critical time in the national health care debate, has privately asked the governor and legislative leaders to change the succession law to guarantee that Massachusetts will not lack a Senate vote when his seat becomes vacant.

In a personal, sometimes wistful letter sent Tuesday to Governor Deval Patrick [and legislative leaders], Kennedy asks that Patrick be given authority to appoint someone to the seat temporarily before voters choose a new senator in a special election.

Although Kennedy, who is battling brain cancer, does not specifically mention his illness or the health care debate raging in Washington, the implication of his letter is clear: He is trying to make sure that the leading cause in his life, better health coverage for all, advances in the event of his death.

In his letter, which was obtained by the Globe, Kennedy said that he backs the current succession law, enacted in 2004, which gives voters the power to fill a US Senate vacancy. But he said the state and country need two Massachusetts senators.

“I strongly support that law and the principle that the people should elect their senator,’’ Kennedy wrote. “I also believe it is vital for this Commonwealth to have two voices speaking for the needs of its citizens and two votes in the Senate during the approximately five months between a vacancy and an election.’’

Under the 2004 law, if Kennedy were to die or step down, voters would select his successor in a special election to be held within five months of the vacancy. But the law makes no provisions for Massachusetts to be represented in the Senate in the interim. In the meantime, President Obama’s plan to overhaul the nation’s health care system, the fate of which may hinge on one or two votes, could come before Congress.

“I am now writing to you about an issue that concerns me deeply, the continuity of representation for Massachusetts, should a vacancy occur,’’ Kennedy wrote.

To ensure that the special election is fair, the senator also urged that the governor obtain an “explicit personal commitment’’ from his appointee not to seek the office on a permanent basis.

{Note: Sen. Kennedy passed away five days after the letter was made public.]

Gubernatorial debate coverage begins: Aug. 12, 2009

New Jersey and Virginia are the only states with gubernatorial races in 2009. OnTheIssues coverage of their debates have begun:

• Virginia debates:
  Bob McDonnell (R) vs. Creigh Deeds (D)
• New Jersey debates:
  Jon Corzine (D, incumbent) vs.
  Chris Christie (R) vs. Chris Daggett (I)

• AK: Sean Parnell replaces Sarah Palin (resigned July 2009 to go on book tour)
• AZ: Jan Brewer replaces Janet Napolitano (appointed to Obama's Cabinet)
• DE: Jack Markell (elected Nov. 2008)
• IL: Pat Quinn replaces Rod Blagojevich (resigned in scandal)
• KS: Mark Parkinson replaces Kathleen Sebelius (appointed to Obama's Cabinet)
• MO: Jay Nixon (elected Nov. 2008)
• NC: Bev Perdue (elected Nov. 2008)
• UT: Gary Herbert replaces Jon Huntsman (appointed as U.S. ambassador to China)

Sen. Mel Martinez (R, FL) resigns: Aug. 7, 2009

Sen. Mel Martinez told friends and supporters Friday in an e-mail that he'll step down from the Senate as soon as a replacement is appointed to fill out his term. ``My priorities have always been my faith, my family and my country and at this stage in my life, and after nearly 12 years of public service in Florida and Washington, it's time I return to Florida and my family,'' said Martinez, who had already ruled out a run for reelection in 2010.

In an extraordinary turn of events, Gov. Charlie Crist, the leading Republican to replace Martinez in the U.S. Senate, will have the power to appoint someone to fill the remainder of Martinez's term.

Crist has denied that he'd appoint himself. He's expected to make an announcement on a fill-in before the end of the August recess when the Senate returns to Washington. Some names already surfacing: former Sen. Connie Mack, former Gov. Bob Martinez and former Secretary of State Jim Smith. Some speculate that Crist might step down as governor, thereby elevating Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp, who could then appoint Crist to the Senate.

Sonia Sotomayor confirmed: Aug. 6, 2009

Judge Sonia Sotomayor, who rose from the housing projects of the Bronx to the top of the legal profession, made history Thursday when the Senate confirmed her to become the nation's first Hispanic Supreme Court justice.

Sotomayor was easily confirmed in a 68-31 vote. Nine Republicans joined a unanimous Democratic caucus in supporting her nomination. Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Massachusetts, supported Sotomayor but was not present for the vote because of illness.

Sotomayor, a 55-year-old federal appeals court judge, will be the 111th person to sit on the high court and the third female justice. She will be sworn in at the Supreme Court by Chief Justice John Roberts on Saturday.

Sotomayor was confirmed after senators spent a final day of debate rehashing arguments for and against her. Democrats continued to praised Sotomayor as a fair and impartial jurist with an extraordinary life story. Many Republicans portrayed her as a judicial activist intent on reinterpreting the law to conform with her own liberal political beliefs.

Among other things, Republican opponents emphasized concerns over her statements and rulings on hot-button issues such as gun control, affirmative action and property rights. They also raised questions about some of her most controversial speeches and statements, including her hope that a "wise Latina woman, with the richness of her experiences" would reach a better conclusion than a white man "who hasn't lived that life."

Sarah Palin (R, AK) resigns: July 26, 2009

As thousands of cheering supporters vowed to keep her feisty, down-home political legacy alive, Sarah Palin stepped down as Alaska governor Sunday, pledging to continue fighting for independence from Washington and for Americans' personal freedoms "as that grizzly guards her cubs."

The hand-over to Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell at a family-style picnic marked an unexpected end to a brief but remarkable governorship in which the 45-year-old hockey mom turned the Republican Party on its head and propelled Alaska's frontier-style, moose-meat-picnic politics into the national dialogue.

"Let's not start believing that government is the answer," she told the largely affectionate crowd of about 5,000 at Pioneer Park. "It can't help make you healthy or wealthy or wise. What can? It is the wisdom of the people. . . . It is God's grace, helping those who help themselves."

Betraying no sadness or second thoughts, she chastised those who question why she stepped down 18 months before the end of her term. "It should be so obvious to you," she said. "It is because I love Alaska this much, sir, that I feel that it is my duty to avoid the unproductive, typical politics-as-usual lame-duck session in one's last year in office. . . . I will be able to fight even harder for you, for what is right. And I have never felt that you need a title to do that."

Palin has declined to say what she plans to do next -- other than write a book and make public appearances, beginning Aug. 8 at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library near Simi Valley. She has not ruled out a bid for the presidency in 2012. At Sunday's picnic, few supporters appeared to believe that she would stay out of the limelight for long.

Al Franken finally to be seated: July 1, 2009

He will be the "un-Al." He will be Minnesota's myth-busting senator. As much as he'll tilt toward the left, he might sway toward Minnesota-style boredom, at least at the start.

As the pivotal Sixtieth Democrat, Al will be on the very fault line of American politics. He will have to show the same remarkable discipline and control that he mustered in defeating Republican Sen. Norm Coleman … In an ironic twist, a man who got famous for his out-of-bounds, deliberately over-the-top humor must once again be a model of decorum and close-to-the-vest style as he enters the Senate.

Franken threw his hat into the Minnesota Senate race on Valentine's Day, 2007. He was thin-skinned then. He could be a bit surly. He was still often in a radio-talk-show mode, seemingly searching for Ann Coulter or Bill O'Reilly in every corner as they were for him.

Then he donned his dress suit and entered the marathon of getting the DFL nomination, running against Norm Coleman and surviving the recount.

During the campaign, Franken spoke of an "Apollo Project" for renewable energy (focused on job creation), easing the middle class squeeze (with a series of tax credits and a new retirement plan) and getting to an American model of universal health care.

During his victory speech Tuesday, he echoed those priorities, saying he wants to make quality health care accessible and affordable to all Minnesotans, to educate the state's children to prepare them for a "21st century economy," to make Minnesota "the epicenter of a new renewable energy economy," to restore "our standing in the world and put people to work here at home."

Thus we heard the Franken priorities and a map to chart over the next five-and-half years.

When Coleman was asked Tuesday what kind of senator he thought Franken would be, he said, "I hope he'll be a senator in the Minnesota tradition. We've had great senators."

Coleman said he wanted to be careful about offering advice, but added: "So often, we think of the job of the U.S. senator as standing on the floor debating the great issues of the day … A lot of what I thought was important was the customer service aspect, the citizen service aspect … There are great debates to be had, but helping that mom get a kid in Haiti . . . is a pretty big deal. My hope would be that he understands, as I understood in my public career, that the public service part is really fundamental."

Franken's local office is already revved up to begin such constituent services and has been planning for that "customer service" mode throughout the election contest.

Rep. John McHugh (R, NY-23) appointed to Obama adminstration: June 11, 2009

The gradual but unmistakable Democratic trend in New York’s 23rd District has Republicans worried about their ability to keep it in GOP hands when Rep. John McHugh (R-N.Y.) officially steps down later this year to become secretary of the Army.

Since first winning the seat in 1992, McHugh has never seriously been threatened in the historically Republican seat. But over the past four years, there’s been a pronounced shift to the left in the North Country-area seat.

The GOP registration edge in the district has dwindled from about 63,000 to less than 47,000. In 2006, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Eliot Spitzer and then-Sen. Hillary Clinton won lopsided victories in the district. Then, in 2008, Barack Obama won the district over John McCain, 52 percent to 47 percent — a notable turnaround in a district that George W. Bush carried twice.

Now, Democrats are eyeing McHugh’s district, which, if lost, would leave Republicans with just two of New York’s 29 House seats.

Under New York election rules, the 10 other Democratic county chairmen in the district — like their Republican counterparts — will select a party nominee for the special election, which will take place after McHugh resigns, possibly later this summer.

The most widely mentioned potential Democratic candidate is state Sen. Darrel Aubertine, who won a historically Republican seat last year. On the GOP side, the most frequently mentioned names are New York state Reps. Will Barclay and Dede Scozzafava.

[On June 11], one candidate officially entered the race for the 23rd Congressional District in New York. Republican Legislator Paul Maroun of Tupper Lake will run for the seat being vacated by Congressman John McHugh.

Democratic gubernatorial primary in Virginia: June 9, 2009

State Sen. R. Creigh Deeds won the three-way Democratic primary for governor of Virginia, an impressive showing for the candidate who was the least-well funded in the race. And while the momentum was clearly heading in his direction, his capturing of nearly 50 percent of the vote was the big headline of the night. Trailing well behind were former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe and former state Delegate Brian Moran.

Results with nearly all precincts reporting:
• Deeds 159,284 49.73%
• McAuliffe 84,588 26.41
• Moran 76,376 23.84

Republican gubernatorial primary in New Jersey: June 2, 2009

Chris Christie won the Republican primary this evening, defeating challenger Steve Lonegan and earning a chance to unseat Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in this fall's election.

Turnout was light across the state, despite the hotly contested battle between front-runner Christie, a former U.S. prosecutor, and challenger Lonegan, the former mayor of Bogota.

The Associated Press declared Christie the winner around 10 p.m., about two hours after the polls closed.

GOP Assemblyman Rick Merkt was also in the race, though he ran a distant third.

Corzine, who was expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, kicked off his campaign with a rally at the Codey Arena in West Orange. Vice President Joe Biden headlined the event.

Sonia Sotomayor nominated for Supreme Court: May 26, 2009

Sonia Sotomayor - who rose from the broken-glass streets of a city housing project to become the Supreme Court's first Latina nominee - says she's just a "kid from the Bronx."

"It is a daunting feeling to be here," Sotomayor, 54, said minutes after President Obama nominated her to replace Associate Justice David Souter.

The daughter of the Bronx recalled getting a tour of the White House after she was named an appeals court judge 11 years ago.

"It was an overwhelming experience for a kid from the South Bronx. Yet never in my wildest childhood imaginings did I ever envision that moment, let alone ... this moment," she said.

"I hope that as the Senate and American people learn more about me, they will see that I am an ordinary person who has been blessed with extraordinary opportunities and experiences."

If confirmed by the Senate, she will be the first Hispanic justice on the nation's highest court.

Rep. Ellen Tauscher appointed to sub-Cabinet: May 5, 2009

President Barack Obama on Tuesday formally nominated Ellen Tauscher, a seven-term member of Congress who is considered an expert on defense, as his top arms control official.

Tauscher, who represents a California district, has a record of introducing arms control and counter proliferation legislation and has campaigned for greater oversight of the US Missile Defense Agency.

She said in a statement that she decided to take the job of under secretary of state for arms control and international security after a period of "soul searching."

"Keeping nuclear weapons out of the hands of terrorists, making sure other countries do not obtain them and, one day, I hope, ridding the world of these terrible weapons, has become my passion and, I hope, my life's work," she said.

* * *

Special elections for 111th Congress:
• CA-10: Ellen Tauscher appointed to sub-Cabinet; special election TBA.
• CA-32: Hilda Solis appointed to Cabinet; special election July 14.
• IL-5: Rahm Emanuel appointed to Chief of Staff; Michael Quigley (D) elected April 21, 2009.
• MN-Sen.: Norm Coleman vs. Al Franken Nov. 2008 election still disputed.
• NY-20: Kirsten Gillibrand appointed to Senate; Scott Murphy (D) elected April 29, 2009.

David Souter announces resignation: May 2, 2009

With one judge aged 89, another aged 76 and receiving chemotherapy and three others in their seventies, the odds were that a Supreme Court vacancy would come up during Barack Obama's four-year term. The surprise is that it was David Souter, a relative spring chicken at 69, who decided to leave the nine-member court

This seems to have been a rare occasion where someone had genuine "personal reasons" for leaving a high profile job. It was well known that Mr Souter, only the sixth bachelor to sit on the illustrious bench, has long yearned for a life outside Washington. He once told acquaintances that he had "the world's best job in the world's worst city".

He maintained a sparsely furnished apartment in the capital and led a decidedly low-tech lifestyle, with no mobile phone, email, television or even answering machine. When the court finished its work every summer, he quickly departed for his beloved New Hampshire - always driving himself the 500 miles home - where he climbed and walked. Friends said on Friday that he wanted to enjoy the outdoors in his waning years, rather than spending October to July in the nation's capital.

Mr Souter has been on the court since 1990, when President George Bush plucked him the federal appeals court circuit. He was heavily touted by John Sununu, the Bush White House aide and former conservative governor of New Hampshire, who hailed his choice as a "home run".

Early in his time in Washington, Mr Souter was called a moderate conservative. But he soon joined in a ruling reaffirming a woman's right to an abortion, a decision from 1992 that remains perhaps his most noted work on the court. He gradually became a mostly reliable liberal vote on the court and was one of the four dissenters in the 2000 decision in Bush v. Gore that sealed the presidential election for George W. Bush.

Arlen Specter (R, PA) switches party: April 29, 2009

Arlen Specter, who has represented Pennsylvania in the upper chamber since 1980, said he was "anxious" to stay in the Senate -- and he did not want to face a Republican primary in order to keep his seat next year. "I was unwilling to subject my 29-year record in the U.S. Senate to the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate," he said. "But I am pleased to run in the primary on the Democratic ticket and am ready, willing and anxious to take on all comers in the general election."

Polls suggested Specter would face a stiff primary challenge from Rep. Pat Toomey, who falls to his right on the political spectrum. Toomey nearly defeated Specter in the Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary in 2004. Specter's move puts the Democrats one shy of a rare filibuster-proof Senate majority of 60 seats. Senate Democrats can now reach the 60-seat mark if Al Franken holds his current lead in the disputed Minnesota Senate race.

"As the Republican Party has moved farther and farther to the right, I have found myself increasingly at odds with the Republican philosophy and more in line with the philosophy of the Democratic Party," Specter said in announcing his decision Tuesday. He said he made the final decision to switch parties and end a 44-year affiliation with the GOP after consulting with his campaign advisers and family over the weekend.

Democrat Scott Murphy wins special election: April 27, 2009

Murphy's opponent, Republican Jim Tedisco, conceded after what had been an extremely close race. Weeks after the special election on March 31, ballots were opened, counted, and contested.. On Friday, with Murphy ahead by almost 400 votes, Tedisco conceded.

Scott Murphy will replace Kirsten Gillibrand in the 20th congressional district (who was appointed to fill Hillary Clinton's Senate seat).

Murphy talked about the strong voter turnout and he spoke of working with people of different parties for economic development. "For the last 15 years I've been starting small businesses. I've been working with companies all across upstate New York to create over 1,000 jobs," said Congressman-Elect Murphy in his address to the crowd. "That's what I've done in the private sector. People said it couldn't be done there. Well we did it. People said we couldn't win this election. Well we did. People don't believe we can get the economy moving here in the 20th district and I tell you, we can!"

Murphy expects to be sworn in as member of Congress on Wednesday in Washington.

Governor Perry discusses Texas Secession: April 22, 2009

Governor Rick Perry didn't actually endorse secession when he spoke at an antitax tea party at Austin city hall. But you could forgive people for misunderstanding, since he's been railing against an overreaching Federal Government, rejected stimulus spending and quoted Sam Houston's declaration that "Texas has yet to learn submission to any oppression." Perry, who faces a tight re-election campaign against that notorious Washington insider "Kay Bailout Hutchison," observed that he thought the U.S. was still a "great union," but "if Washington continues to thumb their nose at the American people, you know, who knows what might come out of that?" (See pictures of tea-party tax protests across the country.)

A Zogby poll last summer found that 1 in 5 Americans thinks states and regions should have the right to leave, which means that the revolutionary DNA of 234 years ago still persists in our bloodstream. Maybe every couple of hundred years, the country should have the debate, just to keep our muscles warm.

The secessionist movements alive today in Vermont, Hawaii and California are not really battles between left and right: they include libertarian Marxists and tribal-rights activists and anarchists and greens and every other ideology, all stirred up by their opposition to big national government.

While we work all this out, I have an idea for Governor Perry. The 1845 Joint Resolution for Annexing Texas omits the right to secede but affirms Texas' right to divide itself into five states if it chooses.

"Tea Party" protests held on Tax Day across the nation: April 15, 2009

Whipped up by conservative commentators and bloggers, tens of thousands of protesters staged "tea parties" around the country yesterday to tap into the collective angst stirred up by a bad economy, government spending, and bailouts.

The rallies were directed at President Obama's administration on a symbolic day: the deadline to file income taxes. Protesters even threw what appeared to be a box of tea bags toward the White House, causing a brief lockdown at the compound.

Shouts rang out from Kentucky, which just passed tax increases on cigarettes and alcohol, to Salt Lake City, where many in the crowd booed Governor Jon Huntsman, a Republican, for accepting about $1.5 billion in stimulus money. Even in Alaska, where there is no statewide income tax or sales tax, hundreds of people held signs and chanted "No more spending."

In Boston, a few hundred protesters gathered on the Common - a short distance from the original Tea Party protest in 1773 - some dressed in Revolutionary garb and carrying signs that said "Barney Frank, Bernie Madoff: And the Difference Is?" and "D.C.: District of Communism."

The tea parties were promoted by FreedomWorks, a conservative nonprofit advocacy group based in Washington and led by Dick Armey of Texas, a former Republican House Majority Leader who is now a lobbyist.

While FreedomWorks insisted the rallies were nonpartisan, they have been seized on by many prominent Republicans who view them as a promising way for the party to reclaim its momentum.

Upstate New York special election still pending: April 11, 2009

[In the race to replace Kirstin Gillibrand, who was appointed to fill Hillary Clinton's Senate seat], in New York's 20th Congressional District special election, all counties have now completed the canvassing, or recanvassing, of machine votes. The final vote tally excluding the absentee and military ballots was 76,992 for Democrat Scott Murphy (D-NY) to 77,060 for Republican James "Jim" Tedisco (R-NY). Including a partial count of absentee ballots, Murphy leads Tedisco by 77,804 to 77,769.

It is likely that the vote from Saratoga County, which represents almost one-third of the voting population, will determine the outcome of the race. Tedisco received 4607 more votes cast on election day in Saratoga County. If the absentee ballots from the district reflected the voting population on election day, Tedisco will likely emerge as the winner.

Some have begun discussing the possibility that no one will be declared the winner. The situation, known under state election law as a "failure to elect," would recreate the vacancy which already exists for the position. Governor David A. Paterson (D-NY) could then call for another special election, or leave the position vacant until November when county elections are scheduled.

Mike Quigley wins special election: April 7, 2009

Democrat Mike Quigley's presumptive status as congressman became official Tuesday as he won 69 percent of the vote in a record-low turnout general election.

The tax-fighting Cook County commissioner and part-time amateur hockey player says he is ready to hit the ground voting when he is sworn in April 24.

Only one in 10 voters came out in this generally Democratic district that stretches from Lincoln Park to the DuPage County line. Republican Rosanna Pulido won 24 percent of the vote and Green Party candidate Matt Reichel took 7 percent.

Rahm Emanuel left this seat to become President Obama's chief of staff. In Iraq with the president Tuesday, Emanuel was asked by a Marine if he voted absentee for Quigley. [He said he did not.]

Former Sen. Norm Coleman promises continuation of legal challenges: April 5, 2009

Five months after Minnesota voters thought they elected a U.S. senator, perhaps they will soon get one. And perhaps not.

A legal ruling last week strongly suggests that Democrat Franken, the comedian-turned-politician, will eke out a narrow victory over Republican Coleman, the incumbent. A state appeals court panel will meet Tuesday to oversee the counting of up to 400 absentee ballots, a potentially pivotal sliver of the 2.9 million votes cast last fall, and eventually rule on the disputed election that has Franken up by 225 votes.

The outcome hinges, though, on when the court battles end. The painstaking re-examination of the November election has tried the patience of Minnesota voters, who have watched as lawyers, judges and out-of-town politicians and bloggers weigh in on the Senate race that doesn't seem to want to end.

Franken has been ahead, based on a recount completed in early January, but continued legal challenges have prevented the election from being certified by Minnesota's secretary of state, Democrat Mark Ritchie, and Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty. Until they certify the election result, Franken cannot take a seat in the Senate, meaning Democrats effectively have 58 seats instead of 59 and Minnesota has only one senator.

Coleman promised last week that he would appeal the upcoming appeals court ruling to the Minnesota Supreme Court, which would almost certainly delay any resolution into May.

Another possible scenario is going to the U.S. Supreme Court, which would drag things out further, or filing a lawsuit challenging the legitimacy of the November election.

Despite all the resources spent in the fight—nearly $40 million in the election alone—neither candidate is wildly popular with voters. Each collected 42 percent of the vote, with thinly financed Independent candidate Dean Barkley getting 15 percent. The winner—now it looks like Franken—will not go to Washington with the warm wishes of the majority.

Rep. Ellen Tauscher appointed to State Dept.: Mar. 19, 2009

Democratic Rep. Ellen O. Tauscher confirmed just Wednesday that she has been offered a high-level State Department post in the Obama administration — and prospective candidates already are stepping in or taking themselves out of contention to succeed her in California’s 10th District seat.

Two well-known regional Democratic officeholders, state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier and state Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, have expressed interest in the seat. Many state lawmakers are likely to consider running, given the term limits placed on them by state election law.

Any candidate activity is just positioning for now, as the seat will not become vacant unless and until Tauscher — elected last November to a seventh House term — is confirmed by the Senate to be undersecretary of State for arms control and international security.

Should Tauscher vacate her House seat, Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger would call a special election in which candidates of all parties would run on a single ballot. If one candidate receives a majority in the primary, he or she would be declared the outright winner. In the absence of a majority winner in the primary, the top vote-getter in each party would advance to a special general election.

Republicans don’t have a deep bench of elected officials in this district. One whose name has been floated as a possible House candidate is San Ramon Mayor H. Abram Wilson, who lost a bid for state Assembly last fall.

Rep. Hilda Solis appointed to Labor Dept.: Mar. 10, 2009

SPECIAL ELECTION PROCLAMATION BY THE GOVERNOR OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA

"I, ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER, Governor of the State of California, do hereby proclaim and order that a special election shall be held on the 14th day of July, 2009 within the 32nd Congressional District of the State to fill the vacancy in the office of the Member of Congress from said district resulting from the resignation of Hilda Solis."

Candidates of all parties run on a single ballot. If one candidate receives a majority in the primary, he or she would be declared the outright winner. In the absence of a majority winner in the primary, the top vote-getter in each party would advance to a special general election. Likely contenders include:

• Businesswoman Teresa Hernandez (R)
• St. Sen. Gil Cedillo (D)
• Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu (D)
• Businessman Rafael Nadal (D)
• Former Congressional aide Emanuel Pleitez (D)

Obama address joint session of Congress: Feb. 24, 2009

Barack Obama continues to enjoy the support of most Americans, and his speech on Tuesday evening to both houses of Congress – a State of the Union address in all but name – did nothing to erode it. The president spoke to the country, not even pretending to address the audience before him. In a relaxed performance, Mr Obama sounded winning themes familiar from his election campaign and by popular demand mixed a bit more optimism and a bit less gloom than of late into the blend. This is the United States, he said: we are not quitters. No indeed.

Fine, although one wonders how much longer Mr Obama will be able to give this speech. He said nothing new. He offered no real information to explain what will become of the banks, or how the budget deficit will eventually be brought back under control, or how his expensive and increasingly confident promises to reform education and healthcare will be paid for. In every case, it was “details to follow”.

Gov. Gary Locke nominated for Commerce Secretary: Feb. 23, 2009

Former Gov. Gary Locke is President Barack Obama's likely pick for commerce secretary, a senior administration official said Monday.

Obama's expected choice of Locke arose less than two weeks after his most recent pick, Republican Sen. Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, backed out, citing "irresolvable conflicts" with the policies of the Democratic president.

Obama originally gave the post, which requires Senate confirmation, to New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a Democrat and a former 2008 presidential candidate. Richardson withdrew in January, before Obama took office, after the disclosure that a grand jury is investigating allegations of wrongdoing in the awarding of contracts in his state.

Locke, a Democrat, was the nation's first Chinese-American governor. He served two terms, ending in 2005.

The Commerce Department post is typically not one of the more high-profile jobs in an administration. The head of the department oversees agencies responsible for the once-a-decade census, for oceans policy and for many aspects of international trade, among other things.

Judd Gregg withdraws from Commerce Secretary nomination: Feb. 13, 2009

A day after U.S. Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., announced that he was withdrawing his nomination as commerce secretary, political observers said the gap between Republicans and Democrats is as wide as ever.

"It would have been difficult for me, after having presented my opinions and having said my two cents worth, and then had it go a different way," Gregg said. "Then, it would have been difficult for me to be out 100 percent behind the president, where I should be."

On Capitol Hill, Republicans called Gregg's move a principled decision.

Gregg said he believes Obama wanted him to be commerce secretary because of his ideas.

"I think the president wanted me in his Cabinet because he thought I'd bring a different voice and be a constructive person at the table," Gregg said.

Few would argue the senator's qualifications for the job, having served on the Budget Committee for years and being a major force behind the TARP stimulus plan.

Collection of State of the State speeches: Feb. 1, 2009

This week and next week, all governors will report on the State of the State to their respective legislatures. We cover as many as possible -- check out our coverage as it grows for this year, and check out previous years:

• 2009 speeches
• 2008 speeches
• 2007 speeches
• 2004 speeches
• 2001 speeches

Kirsten Gillibrand appointed to Senate: Jan. 23, 2009

"The next junior Senator from New York will have big shoes to fill. This seat has been held by icons of New York State: Robert Francis Kennedy, Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Hillary Rodham Clinton. Hillary Clinton’s confirmation as Secretary of State was a bittersweet moment for all New Yorkers. On one hand, we were thrilled that someone of her caliber would be representing America to the world. But on the other hand, at a time of grave economic and fiscal challenges, we were losing one of our strongest voices and most powerful advocates.

"I am proud to say that we have found an extraordinary New Yorker to follow in the mold of Hillary Clinton.

"Kirsten Gillibrand is not only a rising star; she also possesses a deep understanding and a strong record of accomplishment on the issues that matter most today."

Roland Burris sworn into Senate: Jan. 16, 2009

A week ago, he was left standing in the cold rain outside the Capitol. Thursday, all was different and all was forgiven. And Roland Burris was a member of the United States Senate.

His wild political ride came to an end after he was sworn in as Illinois' junior senator, surrounded and glad-handed by the very Democrats who earlier vowed to keep him from office, saying then that his appointment by Gov. Rod Blagojevich was tainted by scandal.

One of the figures instrumental in attempting to keep Burris from his seat, Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), escorted him to the front of the Senate chamber shortly after 2 p.m. local time. Burris, carrying a large Bible, was given the oath of office by Vice President Dick Cheney.

A few hours later, he cast his first vote, against a resolution that would block hundreds of billions of dollars in funds the incoming Obama administration wants to use for propping up the financial markets. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid walked Burris to the center of the chamber and showed him how to record his vote.

Norm Coleman's election lawsuit upheld by governor: Jan. 12, 2009

The Al Franken campaign today asked Gov. Tim Pawlenty to step into the U.S. Senate recount-cum-election challenge. Indeed, Franken’s side said it is Pawlenty’s “duty” to do so as early as today.

According to the Canvassing Board, Franken won the 2008 U.S. Senate race by 225 votes. Norm Coleman filed last week an election challenge petition [requiring a court decision].

Pawlenty issued a statement saying he won't sign the certificate of election: "I have a duty to follow state law, and our statutes are clear on this issue. I am prohibited from issuing a certificate of election until the election contest in the courts has been resolved."

Indeed, Sen. John Cornyn, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, wrote an opinion piece in Roll Call, the Washington publication, saying Franken shouldn’t be seated until the courts decide in Minnesota.

New US Senate sworn in: Jan. 6, 2009

While most attention is on the two US Senate seats that remain vacant, it's a big day for the 98 senators who are there.

Nine new senators are taking the oath of office today:

Meet Your New Cabinet's books: Dec. 26th, 2008

OnTheIssues.org excerpts and reviews political books; following is a collection from the incoming Obama administration.
• Between Worlds, by Gov. Bill Richardson, Secretary of Commerce-designee
• Critical: What We Can Do About the Health Care Crisis, by Sen. Tom Daschle, Secretary of Health & Human Services-designee
• Dreams from My Father:, by Sen. Barack Obama, President-elect
• It Takes A Village, by Sen. Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State-designee
• Leading by Example, by Gov. Bill Richardson, Secretary of Commerce-designee
• Like No Other Time: The Two Years That Changed America, by Sen. Tom Daschle, Secretary of Health & Human Services-designee
• Living History, by Sen. Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State-designee
• Profiles In Courage For Our Time, by Caroline Kennedy, including chapter on Rep. Hilda Solis, Secretary of Labor-designee
• Promises to Keep, by Sen. Joe Biden, Vice President-elect
• The Audacity of Hope, by Sen. Barack Obama, President-elect
• The Thumpin': How Rahm Emanuel and the Democrats Learned to Be Ruthless, by Naftali Bendavid; profiling Rep. Emanuel, White House Chief of Staff-designee

Governor of Illinois arrested: Dec. 10th, 2008

President-Elect Obama resigned his Senate seat in November. The Governor of Illinois has sole authority to appoint a replacement, which could include appointing himself. Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D, IL) was arrested and indicted for corruption, charged with offering the Senate appointment to the highest bidder, among numerous other charges. It seems likely that Gov. Blagojevich will resign or be impeached, although he is still legally entitled to make the Senate appointment up until the day he leaves office. The growing list of appointments and special elections due to the incoming Obama administration are....

2009 appointments and special elections: AZ: Gov. Janet Napolitano designated as Attorney General. If Napolitano is confirmed in early 2009, Secy. of State Jan Brewer (R) will become Governor. CA-31: Rep. Hilda Solis designated as Secretary of Labor. If Solis is confirmed in early 2009, a special election will be held later in 2009. CO: Sen. Ken Salazar designated as Secretary of Interior. If Salazar is confirmed in early 2009, Gov. Bill Ritter (D) will appoint his successor for a 2-year term, until a special election which will be held in Nov. 2010. DE: Vice.Pres.-Elect Biden will resign his Senate seat; and Gov. Ruth Ann Minner has designated his successor: Ted Kaufman will be Biden's successor, until a special election which will be held in Nov. 2010. IL: Pres.-Elect Obama has resigned his Senate seat, and Gov. Rod Blagojevich will appoint his successor. If Blagojevich leaves office, Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) will become governor and will appoint Obama's successor. The Illinois legislature could change the state's Senate successor law from gubernatorial appointment to special election, but that would require the governor's signature or a veto override. IL-5:Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D), designated as White House Chief of Staff. A special election will be held in 2009, after Rep. Emanuel resigns. NM: Gov. Bill Richardson designated as Secretary of Commerce. If Richardson is confirmed in early 2009, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) will become Governor. NY: Sen. Hillary Clinton designated as Secretary of State. If Clinton is confirmed in early 2009, Gov. David Paterson (D) will appoint her successor. Paterson became governor in March 2008 when his predecessor, Eliot Spitzer, resigned amid a sex scandal.

Meet Your New Governors: Dec. 5th, 2008

Three gubernatorial races elected new governors; two special elections are pending, and two general elections in 2009:

2008 elections: D,NC: Governor-Elect Bev Perdue D,DE: Governor-Elect Jack Markell D,MO: Governor-Elect Jay Nixon Pending elections: D,AZ: Gov. Janet Napolitano designated as Attorney General (requires Senate confirmation, Jan. 2009) R,AZ: Secy. of State Jan Brewer will become Governor if Napolitano is confirmed. D,NM: Gov. Bill Richardson designated as Secretary of Commerce (requires Senate confirmation, Jan. 2009) D,NM: Lt. Gov. Diane Denish will become Governor if Richardson is confirmed. 2009 elections: D,NJ: Jon Corzine likely to not run for re-election D,VA: Tim Kaine term-limited in 2009

Meet Your New Congress: Nov. 25th, 2008

Three House elections are still undecided; and one House special election is pending:
Pending elections: IL-5:Emanuel (Appointed White House Chief of Staff) CA-31:Solis(D) (Announced as Secretary of Labor) CA-4:Brown(D) vs.McClintock(R) UPDATE: McClintock won recount on Dec. 3rd. LA-2:Jefferson(D) vs.Cao(R) UPDATE: Cao won runoff on Dec. 6th. LA-4:Fleming(R) vs.Carmouche(D) UPDATE: Fleming won runoff on Dec. 6th. OH-15:Kilroy(D) vs.Stivers(R) UPDATE: Kilroy won recount on Dec. 7th. VA-5:Goode(R) vs.Perriello(D) UPDATE: Perriello won recount on Dec. 17th. GOP Freshmen in 111th Congress: R,OH-7:Austria R,OH-16:Boccieri R,LA-6:Cassidy R,UT-3:Chaffetz R,CA-6:Coffman R,KY-2:Guthrie R,MS-3:Harper R,CA-52:Hunter R,KS-2:Jenkins R,NJ-7:Lance R,NY-26:Lee R,MO-9:Luetkemeyer R,WY-AL:Lummis R,TX-22:Olson R,MN-3:Paulsen R,FL-15:Posey R,TN-1:Roe R,FL-16:Rooney R,IL-18:Schock R,PA-5:Thompson		Dem. Freshmen in 111th Congress: D,NJ-3:Adler D,AL-2:Bright D,VA-11:Connolly D,PA-3:Dahlkemper D,OH-1:Driehaus D,OH-11:Fudge D,FL-8:Grayson D,AL-5:Griffith D,IL-11:Halvorson D,NM-1:Heinrich D,CT-4:Himes D,AZ-1:Kirkpatrick D,NC-8:Kissell D,FL-24:Kosmas D,MD-1:Kratovil D,NM-3:Lujan D,NY-25:Maffei D,CO-4:Markey D,NY-29:Massa D,NY-13:McMahon D,ID-1:Minnick D,MI-9:Peters D,ME-1:Pingree D,CO-2:Polis D,MI-7:Schauer D,OR-5:Schrader D,NM-2:Teague D,NV-3:Titus D,NY-21:Tonko

Summary (excluding three undecided races):
29 new House Democrats
20 new House Republicans
Click for details of each House race.

Meet Your New Senate: Nov. 18th, 2008

The freshman class of the U.S. Senate

Three Senate elections are still undecided, two weeks after the election; and two Senate appointments are pending:
• AK, being recounted (Sen. Stevens may be expelled from Senate for his felony conviction): Mayor Mark Begich (D) vs. Ted Stevens (R, incumbent)
  UPDATE: Sen. Stevens conceded, Nov. 22, ending both the recount and the Senate expulsion process.
• DE, Vice.Pres.-Elect Biden will resign his Senate seat, and Gov. Ruth Ann Minner will appoint his successor.
  UPDATE: Gov. Minner on Nov. 24 named Ted Kaufman as Biden's successor, until a special election which will be held in Nov. 2010.
• GA, runoff scheduled for Dec. 2nd: Saxby Chambliss (R, incumbent) vs. Jim Martin (D)
  UPDATE: Sen. Chambliss won by a large margin on Dec. 2nd.
• IL, Pres.-Elect Obama has resigned his Senate seat, and Gov. Rod Blagojevich will appoint his successor.
• MN, being recounted; scheduled completion Dec. 13th (still in court as of Dec. 16): Al Franken (DFL) vs. Norm Coleman (R, incumbent)

For all other Senate races, the new freshman class of the U.S. Senate is:
• CO: Rep. Mark Udall (D)
  UPDATE: Sen. Ken Salazar designated as Secretary of Interior. Gov. Bill Ritter (D) will appoint his successor for a 2-year term, until a special election which will be held in Nov. 2010.
• ID: Governor Jim Risch (R)
• NE: Gov. Mike Johanns (R)
• NH: Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
• NM: Rep. Tom Udall (D)
• SD: St. Sen. Kay Hagan (D)
• OR: St. Rep. Jeff Merkley (D)
• VA: Gov. Mark Warner (D)
  
• Summary (excluding the two undecided races):
  7 new Senate Democrats
  2 new Senate Republicans

Click for details of each Senate race.

Meet Your New Cabinet: Nov. 11th, 2008

Pres.Elect Obama appoints Chief of Staff: Rep. Rahm Emanuel

Pres.-Elect Obama has selected Rahm Emanuel as his White House Chief of Staff. Emanuel will assist in selecting the president's Cabinet.

Subsequent Cabinet picks (will be filled in over time):
• U.S. Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D, IL-5) - Chief of Staff (announced Nov. 11)
• Eric Holder - Attorney General (announced Nov. 18)
• Former U.S. Sen. Tom Daschle (D, SD) - Secretary of Health & Human Services (announced Nov. 19)
• Gov. Janet Napolitano (D, AZ) - Secretary of Homeland Security (announced Nov. 20)
• Sen. Hillary Clinton (D, NY) - Secretary of State (leaked Nov. 21)
• Timothy Geithner - Treasury secretary (leaked Nov. 21)
• Gov. Bill Richardson (D, NM) - Secretary of Commerce (leaked Nov. 22)
• Secy. Bob Gates (R, DOD) - will stay on as Secretary of Defense (leaked Nov. 25)
• Gen. Eric Shinseki - Secretary of Veterans Affairs (announced Dec. 7)
• Steven Chu - Secretary of Energy (leaked Dec. 11)
• Lisa Jackson - Director of EPA (leaked Dec. 14)
• Sen. Ken Salazar (D, CO) Secretary of Interior (leaked Dec. 16)
• Arne Duncan - Secretary of Education (announced Dec. 17)
• Rep. Hilda Solis (D, CA-31) Secretary of Labor (announced Dec. 19)
• Former Rep. Ray LaHood (D, IL-18) Secretary of Transporation (announced Dec. 19)

Click for details of Bush Cabinet.

OnTheIssues Election Results: Nov. 4th, 2008 (updated figures as of Nov. 19)

Obama over McCain, 365 to 173

Our presidential prediction was correct in 42 states and incorrect in 8 states. Map below; click for larger version. We are most proud of our accurate prediction of a Nebraska electoral vote split, which most media organizations are still reporting incorrectly as of Nov. 19.

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Popoular vote results:
Candidate	Party	Votes	Percent
Barack Obama	Democratic	67,981,686	52.77%
John McCain	Republican	59,082,002	45.86%
Ralph Nader	Independent	720,227	0.56%
Bob Barr	Libertarian	529,767	0.41%
Chuck Baldwin	Constitution	189,888	0.15%
Cynthia McKinney	Green	157,585	0.12%

Click for John McCain's and Barack Obama's issue stances & voting record.

OnTheIssues Senate election prediction: Oct. 31st, 2008

We predict a net gain of 6 Senate seats for the Democrats

We have a scary prediction for Halloween: Democrats will control the US House, the US Senate, and the US Presidency. We at OnTheIssues believe that hurts the "balance of powers", one of the core principles of the Constitution. But we believe this outcome will come about because the Republican Party did not learn the lesson of their 2006 election loss: the GOP continued pushing the same economic policy, and the same Iraq war policy, as before 2006, with the same predictable results in 2008. We believe that will be seen as an historical mistake; we only hope that the Republican Party will learn the lesson this time around, so that they can undo the gross imbalance of power in 2010.

Our predictions for Senate races in which the incumbent will lose, and an indication of the party of the incumbent seat: (see our full Senate page for details):
• AK, R: Mayor Mark Begich (D)
• CO, R: Rep. Mark Udall (D)
• ID, R: Governor Jim Risch (R)
• LA, D: John Neely Kennedy (R)
• ME, R: Rep. Tom Allen (D)
• MN, R: Al Franken (DFL)
• MS, R: Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D)
• NE, R: Gov. Mike Johanns (R)
• NH, R: Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
• NM, R: Rep. Tom Udall (D)
• SD, D: Joel Dykstra (R)
• VA, R: Gov. Mark Warner (D)
  
• Summary:
  8 Senate seats change from Republican to Democrat
  2 Senate seats change from Democrat to Republican

Click for details of each Senate race.

OnTheIssues Election Prediction: Oct. 29th, 2008

We predict Obama over McCain, 351 to 187

Before you read this, you should know that OnTheIssues has predicted wrong in every presidential election since we were founded in 1999. With that in mind, we predict a small landslide for Barack Obama next Tuesday. Our detailed state-by-state prediction appears below (click for larger image).

We predict that Obama will gain "blue states" over Kerry's 2004 results in the following categories:

1. BIDEN STATES: Joe Biden is most popular in OH and PA, and will gain those for Obama. He MAY gain FL for Obama, but McCain will focus there in the final week and take it, we predict.
2. BLACK STATES: Heavy African-American turnout in VA, NC, GA, and AR will turn those formerly red states blue.
3. MOUNTAIN STATES: Demographic changes in will turn MT, CO, and NM blue -- but these changes are "permanent", because they represent changes in the entire electorate, compared to category #2's changes, which only apply to Obama.
4. ELECTION SURPRISES: We predict that one electoral vote from Nebraska will go to Obama (they split their electoral votes by district; we predict the Omaha district will go for Obama while the rest of the state goes for McCain). We also predict that NH will go for McCain. NH is too libertarian to vote for Obama and too idiosyncratic to predict accurately. New Hampshirites have loved McCain since 1999.

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Click for John McCain's and Barack Obama's issue stances & voting record.

OnTheIssues House election prediction: Oct. 21st, 2008

We predict a net gain of 15 to 27 House seats for the Democrats

2008 appears destined to be as bad a year for the Republican Party in the US House as 1994 was for the Democratic Party. In 1994, Newt Gingrich oversaw a massive turnover of House seats based on the Contract With America. In 2008, the paired woes of the economy and the Iraq War will oust dozens of Republican House members, we predict. In 1994, the Republicans enjoyed a net gain of 54 House seats, capturing the majority by a 26-seat margin. In 2008, the Democrats may enjoy nearly as large a victory, expanding upon their existing 235-199 majority, a 36-seat margin.

The lists below indicate the vulnerable House seats for each party. (All challengers are detailed on our main House page). In summary, Republican incumbents have 58 vulnerable seats, while the Democrats have only 25 vulnerable seats. We categorize them as follows:

• Retirements: (incumbents: 29 GOP; 8 Dems)
  Predicted outcome: 17-22 GOP; 15-20 Dems (net loss to GOP: 7 to 22 seats).
  GOP House members are more likely to retire than their Democratic colleagues because they know they will return to a minority position (i.e., less power than when they were in the majority). In some cases, incumbents choose to retire rther than face a serious electoral challenge -- Republican members in mixed districts are more likely to retire for that reason too. We predict a higher-than-average party turnover on retirements because of the general public dissatisfaction with Congress. (Congress suffers from an approval rating even lower than Pres. Bush's record low!)
• Forced Retirements: (incumbents: 3 GOP; 1 Dem)
  Predicted outcome: 3 GOP; 1 Dem (net loss to GOP: 0 seats).
  Four incumbents lost their seats in contested primaries to fellow party members. We predict no party turnover here because all four are "safe seats" for the party in question -- the representative will change, but not the party. The one Democrat who lost his primary resigned (see "crybaby" category) and hence is in the Special Election category.
• Special Elections: (incumbents: 9 GOP; 6 Dems)
  Predicted outcome: 7-8 GOP; 7-8 Dems (net loss to GOP: 1 to 2 seats).
  15 members resigned or passed away during the 110th Congress. Some resigned to run for higher office; some resigned to capitalize as a "revolving door" lobbyist or corporate position; and some resigned as "crybabies" when they lost to a primary challenger. We denounce the lobbyists and crybabies by labelling them as such -- these are Members of Congress who did not fulfill their duty to serve their constituents. In fact, they cost their constituents a lot of money, because their resignations forced special elections, which the taxpayers must pay for. Since all of these replacement Members are already elected (some as late as June 2008), they face as low a likelihood of turnover as normal incumbents.
• Hotly Contested Elections: (incumbents: 16 GOP; 10 Dems)
  Predicted outcome: 5-10 GOP; 16-21 Dems (net loss to GOP: 6 to 11 seats).
  We review Congressional contests from the perspective of which organizations push for the election of challengers. Serious organizational support -- either in terms of volunteers or in terms of donations -- gives challengers a chance to oust incumbents. The supporting organizations include each party's Congressional committee; then range from the NRA and Club For Growth (on the right), to MoveOn.org and EMILY's list (on the left). We predict a higher-than-average party turnover in all contested races, because of voter dissatisfaction with the direction of the country. That dissatisfaction especially applies to Republican incumbents, because of voter dissatisfaction of Pres. Bush and his perceived responsibility for the negative direction of the country.
• Overall prediction: (incumbents: 57 GOP; 25 Dems)
  Surprises not counted above: 0 GOP; 1-2 Dems (net loss to GOP: 1 to 2 seats).
  Predicted outcome: 32-43 GOP; 39-50 Dems (net loss to GOP: 15 to 27 seats). We list below all the House races where we think it's possible for the challenger to win -- but we expect a couple of surprises too, most likely an unexpected Democratic victory in 1 or 2 districts. Stay tuned next week for our Senate and Presidential predictions!

Click for details of each House race.

Gen. Colin Powell endorses Barack Obama: Oct. 19, 2008

See full coverage of Colin Powell's issue stances

Colin Powell, the latest big figure to back Mr Obama, might have had a few kind words for his old friend and party colleague - but he's still voting for the Democrat. It is a decision which will come as a particular blow to John McCain. Mr Powell is, after all, a Republican, a lion of the party and a former general with impeccable national security credentials.

Powell served as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff during the first Gulf War in 1991 and was then Secretary of State during George W Bush's first term in office. He is a big player in Washington and a contemporary of Mr McCain. His view that America needs the generational change which Mr Obama is in a position to offer will undermine his old friend's credibility.

The endorsement was offered during a thoughtful TV interview rather than on stage at an Obama rally. It is particularly damaging for the Republicans that Mr Powell suggested Sarah Palin's inclusion on the ticket and the negative tone of the campaign were major factors in his decision. The implication is clear - that his own party could have won his support, but failed to do so.

Mr Powell's views probably carry quite a bit of weight with the type of military veterans who are natural McCain voters and who distrust Obama - in part at least - because of his lack of international experience.

Source: Library of Congress
Click for complete records of Gen. Colin Powell's and Barack Obama's issue stances & voting record.

Third & final presidential debate: Oct. 15th, 2008

McCain vs. Obama at Hofstra University

Last of three debates, in Hempstead, New York.

Abortion    Barack Obama: No litmus test; nominate to Court based on their fairness.    John McCain: I've never imposed a litmus test on Supreme Court nominees.    Barack Obama: Opposed born-alive treatment law because it was already law.    John McCain: Obama voted no on partial-birth ban & born-alive treatment.

Budget & Economy    Barack Obama: Fundamentals were weak BEFORE crisis; focus on middle class.    John McCain: Americans are innocent victims of Wall Street greed.    John McCain: $300B to buy up home mortgages; put a floor under it.

Civil Rights    John McCain: Equal pay for equal work case was a trial lawyer's dream.

Corporations    Barack Obama: We both cut taxes; but McCain offers $200B to corporations.

Energy & Oil    Barack Obama: Let's build a fuel-efficient car in America, not abroad.    John McCain: Energy independence will create millions of jobs.

Free Trade    Barack Obama: We export only 4,000 cars to Korea; that's not free trade!.    John McCain: Free trade with Colombia is something that's a no-brainer.

Health Care    John McCain: Mandated heath insurance is Big Government at its best.    Barack Obama: Zero fines & no mandate for small business.    John McCain: Get healthcare records online to reduce costs.

Jobs    Barack Obama: Solution to financial crisis is more job creation.

Principles & Values    Barack Obama: Bill Ayers is not & will not be involved with my campaign.    John McCain: I am not President Bush; so don't run against him!.    John McCain: Obama broke his word on public campaign financing.

War & Peace    John McCain: Biden's plan to partition Iraq was a cockamamie idea.

Click for Excerpts from the third debate.