OnTheIssues disendorsements for candidates who refuse to take issue stances
OnTheIssues condemns candidates with an "IFFY Award" for running an "Issue-Free campaign." These are "iffy" candidates because they refused to provide voters with information on what they believe and how they will legislate. They are likely to be "iffy legislators" too -- never providing their constituents with information, on the belief that the less voters know, the more likely the "iffy" candidates are to get re-elected.
An IFFY award is a non-partisan condemnation: OnTheIssues doesn't care WHAT candidates' issue stances are -- as long as they HAVE issue stances!
At OnTheIssues, we believe that candidates should make clear their issue stances, and if they don't do that, then they should not run for office at all, and if they get elected and still won't divulge their issue stances, that they should resign or be driven from office by outraged constituents. Following are our three "iffy" candidates for 2018:
NBC-10-TV reports that Fung avoided all primary debates:
"The two favorite contenders for the major party’s nominations are refusing to appear in any of the offered statewide forums.
'It’s not OK in a democracy,' NBC 10's political analyst said. 'Avoiding debates might rub voters the wrong way and they might just end up staying home in the general election.' "
During the general election debate, the Providence Journal reported that Fung's independent opponent Joe Trillo brought up the IFFY issue:
"Trillo saved his most colorful exchanges for Fung, whom he called 'wimpy' for not taking positions on issues."
OnTheIssues has been attempting to gather issue stances from Mayor Fung since 2014, when he also ran for Governor (and also provided few issue stances). Mayor Fung has declined to respond to our VoteMatch quiz repeatedly.
KGOU's Trevor Brown reported that the sole one-hour debate on Sept. 24 "waded into social issues,
including abortion, parental rights and gun control. Neither candidate, however, seemed to want to press these issues as campaign focal points."
Edmondson's opponent, however, has made public his stances on those three issues (and more), while Edmondson has not.
OnTheIssues has been attempting to gather issue stances from Edmondson all campaign season. Edmondson has declined to respond to our VoteMatch quiz repeatedly.
Project VoteSmart reprots, "Chele Farley has refused to provide voters with positions on key issues covered by the 2018 Political Courage Test, despite repeated requests from Vote Smart and voters like you."
The Auburn Citizen commented that "In her campaign launch video... Farley blamed Gillibrand, a Democrat, for the state not getting its fair share from the federal government.... There wasn't much revealed in the video about Farley's platform."
Farley has continued that lack of platform throughout the campaign, running on a platform of Gillibrand's failings.
OnTheIssues has been attempting to gather issue stances from Farley all campaign season. Farley has declined to respond to our VoteMatch quiz repeatedly.
Predictions in four House races: two GOP victories; two Democratic victories
OnTheIssues makes four predictions in House races for the four districts for which we have web pages for both nominees.
(for most House districts, we only cover the incumbent).
We predict races based on the relative number of viewers of the candidates' pages on our website.
This "polling" method indicates interest in the issue stances of the candidates, which serves as a proxy for voting for candidates.
Downsides of this prediction method include:
- We don't count whether the website viewer actually resides in the district or is registered to vote
- Interest in the issue stances of a candidate could mean negative interest as well as positive interest
- Reading about a candidate doesn't necessarily translate into voting for a candidate
Upsides of this prediction method include:
- This method would have predicted Trump in the 2016 presidential election when most polls predicted Hillary would win.
- Pundits have trouble predicting the 2018 election because hinges on "voter enthusiasm" -- but so does reading our website!
- Internet viewership correlates with youth, which in most elections vote poorly, but are predicted to vote highly in 2018.
Some details of our methodology:
We count only "unique pageviews", which means one "vote" per person for the entire duration of our "poll".
For our House predictions, we count the "viewership score" (number of unique people) from Oct. 1 through Oct. 24 (but if the outcome prediction changes in the next week, we'll report that!)
For our upcoming Gubernatorial and Senatorial predictions, we will count the "viewership score" from Oct. 1 through Oct. 31 (a full month).
House district and analysis:
Predicted winner and loser, and OnTheIssues viewership scores:
The Democratic nominee served in the U.S. House in this district from 2009-2011 and lost re-election in November 2010 to the current Republican incumbent.
In 2016, Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in this district, 65-33. Results were similarly lopsided in the previous four presidential elections.
We predict an overwhelming Republican victory in this district.
Democratic incumbent Ruben Kihuen retiring in 2018.
The Republican nominee served in the U.S. House in this district from 2015-2017 and lost re-election in November 2016 to the current Democratic incumbent.
The Democratic nominee served in the U.S. House in this district from 2013-2015 and lost re-election in November 2014 to the current Republican nominee.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in this district, 50-45. Results were similar in 2012, favoring Obama over Romney.
We predict a Republican victory in this district, despite its Democratic history.
Source: Google Analytics and OnTheIssues analysis.
Primary election results: Sept. 11-13, 2018
Nominees decided in NH, RI, and NY
State primary on Sept. 11th-13th:
Winners and losers and notes:
New York Gubernatorial primaries: Thursday, Sept. 13 (Democratic incumbent running for re-election)
The New York primary system allows candidates to run on multiple party lines;
Cynthia Nixon lost on the Democratic Party line but won on the Working Families Party line.
Maryland Senatorial primary: (Incumbent Democrat running for re-election but challenged in primary)
Note that this is the 6-year Senate seat; there is also a special election in Mississippi for a 2-year Senate seat
-- that will take place as a jungle primary on Nov. 6 with a runoff afterwards if needed.
Mississippi Senatorial Democratic runoff: (Two top vote-getters advanced from June 5 Democratic primary)
Note that this is the 6-year Senate seat; there is also a special election in Mississippi for a 2-year Senate seat
-- that will take place as a jungle primary on Nov. 6 with a runoff afterwards if needed.
New York Senatorial primary: Note: the New York gubernatorial primary will take place on Sept. 13
(most states hold the Sentorial and gubernatorial primaries simultaneously, but NY does not).
Mississippi Special Senatorial primary: Note: This is the 2-year Senate special election for seat vacated by Thad Cochran.
The three candidates listed will participate in a jungle primary on November 6th, with a runoff (if no candidate gets over 50%) on November 27th.
Conor Lamb (D) beats Rick Saccone (R) in 18th district
A special election was held in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional district:
Oct. 5, 2017: Incumbent Rep. Tim Murphy( R) announced his resignation over sexual misconduct charges.
Oct. 21, 2017: Governor Tom Wolf (D), upon Murphy's exit, set the date for a special election for March 13, 2018
Nov. 11, 2017: Republicans nominate State Rep. Rick Saccone (R), over State Senator Guy Reschenthaler and State Senator Kim Ward.
Nov. 19, 2017: Democrats nominate Conor Lamb (D), over Westmoreland County Commissioner Gina Cerilli and former Assistant Department of Veterans Affairs Secretary Pam Iovino.
March 13, 2018: Conor Lamb (D) wins the special election.
March 15, 2018: Due to redistricting ordered by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to undo gerrymandering, this district and neighboring districts all have their borders redrawn, including...
14th district: After losing a close race in the 18th district, Rick Saccone (R) will run in Pennsylvania's 14th district, against State Senator Guy Reschenthaler (R).
18th district: Neighboring district incumbent Michael Doyle (D, PA-14) will run in the 18th district against Janis Brooks (R).
Source: Numerous news sources and Ballotpedia info on PA-14, PA-17, and PA-18 districts.
State of the State speeches: Feb. 8, 2018
Excerpts from seven governors' speeches, Jan. 9th - Feb. 8th
Every governor makes a State of the State speech annually, including both outgoing and incoming governors.
These occur sometime in January and March; we work to excerpt all 50 states, starting with these:
Feb. 9, 2017: Gov. Robert J. Bentley (R-AL) appoints Luther Strange to fill Jeff Sessions' seat.
Nov. 18, 2016: Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) appointed as United States Attorney General.
Minnesota:
Jan. 3, 2018: Lt. Gov. Tina Smith (DFL-MN) sworn in as United States Senator
Dec. 18, 2017: Gov. Mark Dayton (DFL-MN) appoints Tina Smith as interim Senator.
Dec. 7, 2017: Senator Al Franken (DFL-MN) resigns under allegations of sexual misconduct.
Next elections:
Senator Jones will face re-election in 2020 (his term is three years, because he is filling the remaining term of Sen. Sessions)
Senator Smith will face re-election in 2018 (her term is "interim", because she is appointed, like Luther Strange was in Alabama.
The winner of the 2018 election will serve for two years, until what would have been the end of term for Sen. Franken).
We refer to Tina Smith's upcoming election in 2018 as "MN-2" for the Minnesota two-year Senate term,
in contrast to "MN-6", the normal Minnesota six-year Senate term, which will both occur in the same election.
In other words, Minnesota has TWO Senate elections at once in November 2018, which only occurs after resignations.
Alabama didn't end up with two elections at once because the other Alabama Senator's term happens to end in 2022.
Source: Numerous news sources; see Senate membership roster for other resignations and retirements.
Three Congressional resignations: Dec. 5-8, 2017
One Senator and two Congressmen resign over sexual harassment accusations
Three members of Congress resigned this week; following is the status of how they will get replaced.
Dec. 8:
Congressman Trent Franks (R-AZ-8) resigned, effective immediately.
Governor Doug Ducey (R-AZ) will set the date for a special election.
(AZ law requires a special election because Rep. Franks resigned more than 6 months before the next scheduled election in Nov. 2018)
Dec. 7:
Senator Al Franken (D-MN) resigned, effective "in the coming weeks".
Governor Mark Dayton (D-MN) will appoint an interim Senator until a special election is held in Nov. 2018.
(Federal law requires that the governor appoint to fill Senate vacancies; then a special election in Nov. 2018 will fill the vacant seat from 2018 until the regularly-scheduled election in Nov. 2020)
Dec. 5:
Congressman John Conyers (D-MI-13) resigned, effective immediately.
Governor Rick Snyder (R-MI) opted to keep the House seat vacant for 11 months, until Nov. 2018.
(MI law allows for a special election anytime between now and the next election; Snyder chose the special election date to coincide with the general election date in Nov. 2018)
Murphy resigns over sexual misconduct; Tiberi resigns for a better job
Two members of Congress resigned this week; following is the status of how they will get replaced.
Oct. 5:
Congressman Tim Murphy (R-PA-18) resigned, effective Oct. 21.
Governor Tom Wolf (D-PA) set the date for the special election for March 13, 2018.
(Republicans nominated State Rep. Rick Saccone on Nov. 11; Democrats nominated Conor Lamb Nov. 19)
Oct. 19:
Congressman Pat Tiberi (R-OH-12) resigned, effective Jan. 31, 2018, to take a job with the Ohio Business Roundtable, leaving his constituents unrepresented, and then requiring taxpayers to foot the bill for a special election to replace him.
Governor John Kasich (R-OH) will set the special election date after Tiberi's resignation takes effect.
(Contenders include Democratic Franklin County Sheriff Zach Scott and Republican State Sen. Troy Balderson)
OnTheIssues covers the major candidates in the Virginia gubernatorial race; the election will take place on Nov. 7, 2017 (only two states will elect governors in 2017: VA and NJ):
Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey seated after Governor resigns; calls for Special Senate Election
Feb. 8: Senator Jeff Sessions (R) appointed by Donald Trump as U.S. Attorney General.
Feb. 9: Alabama Attorney General Luther Strange (R) appointed by Gov. Bentley to the U.S. Senate to replace Jeff Sessions, while Strange was investigating Bentley for impeachment.
April 10: Gov. Robert Bentley (R) resigned instead of facing impeachment, and pleaded guilty to two misdemeanor charges.
April 18: Newly-seated Gov. Kay Ivey (R) calls for special Senate election to un-do Bentley's Senate appointment, as a "victory for the rule of law."
April 20: State Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (R) suspended from the Supreme Court, for the second time since 2003; Moore then announced his candidacy for the Senate (Moore defeated Strange in the runoff on Sept. 26; then Moore was accused of sexual misconduct).
Phil Murphy, banker
