Kamala Harris in The Economist


On Budget & Economy: Lower cost plan: housing; groceries; medical; and taxes

It is easy enough to understand what is motivating Kamala Harris's economic strategy: Poll after poll demonstrates that many Americans consider the cost of living to be their main concern heading into the election in November, during a time when inflation soared to a four-decade high. Rather than gloss over this ugly reality, she is trying to confront it. "Lower costs for American families" is the centrepiece of her economic agenda.

But just because her strategy is understandable does not make it sensible. Her prescriptions risk taking America further down the road of self-defeating economic policies. Ms Harris's cost-of-living plan may open a new phase in the worrying odyssey. She takes aim at four categories of costs: housing; groceries; medical; and taxes. Although some of her ideas are good and helpful, many more would end up weighing on growth and driving up prices--the exact opposite of their intended effect.

Source: The Economist on 2024 Presidential hopefuls Aug 21, 2024

On Budget & Economy: FactCheck: no evidence for pandemic price-gouging

Ms Harris wants to pass the first-ever federal ban on price gouging on food and groceries. This may not herald a return to the price controls witnessed under President Richard Nixon in the 1970s, but the intellectual underpinning for such a policy is nonetheless half-baked. A common charge of the left-wing is that companies fuelled inflation during the covid-19 pandemic by taking advantage of shortages to jack up prices--but there was no evidence of higher mark-ups at the aggregate level.

Although Ms Harris's promise to crack down on unfair mergers and acquisitions in the food industry that lead to less competition and higher prices is unobjectionable, in reality it is little more than a restatement of America's existing anti-monopoly policy. The Federal Trade Commission is, for instance, currently embroiled in a legal battle to block the biggest supermarket merger in American history.

Source: The Economist on 2024 Presidential hopefuls Aug 21, 2024

On Corporations: Raise corporate tax rates to 28%, from 21%

Ms Harris's economic strategy involves targeted tax cuts [for child tax credits and the earned income tax credit]. These tax cuts would not come in isolation, however. America's budget deficit is running at about 7% of GDP. Neither of the candidates has offered any serious proposals about how to clean up the country's fiscal picture, and would in all likelihood make it worse.

Ms Harris has said that she will follow President Joe Biden's previously outlined plans to raise corporate tax rates to 28%, from 21%, but to only increase income taxes on individuals earning more than $400,000 annually. Together, these changes would not generate enough revenue to cover the full cost of her agenda. The shortfall would add about $1.4trn to America's deficit over the next decade, according to Piper Sandler, an investment bank. That is a lot, even if less than the cost of Mr Trump's tax-cutting plan, which is estimated to be about $4.5trn over the next decade.

Source: The Economist on 2024 Presidential hopefuls Aug 21, 2024

On Families & Children: $6,000 child tax credit, expanded from $2,000 per child

Ms Harris's economic strategy involves targeted tax cuts: For low- and middle-income families, she would increase the child tax credit, including $6,000 during a baby's first year of life, up from $2,000 now. And she would expand the reach of the earned income tax credit--an important subsidy for poorer Americans--to those without children. Judged on their own merits, Ms Harris can make a strong case for both of these changes. When the child tax credit was greatly expanded during the pandemic, it led to a nearly 50% reduction in child poverty rates. As Ms Harris puts it, that is an investment in America's future.

These tax cuts would not come in isolation, however. America's budget deficit is running at about 7% of GDP, a level previously associated with wars or recessions, while the national debt is continuing to climb higher. Neither of the candidates has offered any serious proposals about how to clean up the country's fiscal picture, and would in all likelihood make it worse.

Source: The Economist on 2024 Presidential hopefuls Aug 21, 2024

On Health Care: Cancel medical debt and cap drug costs

Some of the medical elements of Ms Harris's plan are, in theory, more welcome [than her plans on price-gouging & housing ]. She is right to want to bring down America's outrageously high medical costs. But as with any price controls, caps on the cost of insulin (at $35 a month) and out-of-pocket expenses for prescription drugs (at $2,000 a year) risk generating unwanted outcomes. Similar steps by the Biden administration to cap drug costs for seniors are now threatening to cause hefty increases in their insurance premiums.

Ms Harris has also said that she would work with states to cancel medical debts. Again, her aim is laudable: it is scandalous that so many Americans are saddled with medical debt. Yet just cancelling debt would only reset the clock for them, with debts once again piling up whenever they need medical attention. "Why are health care costs so high in the first place? That's a legitimate question but it does not lend itself to quick fixes," says [a Columbia University analyst].

Source: The Economist on 2024 Presidential hopefuls Aug 21, 2024

On Welfare & Poverty: Build 3m new homes; $25,000 downpayment credits

Ms Harris's central focus is housing. She has called for the construction of 3m new homes over the next four years, and wants to provide federal funding and permitting reform to make this happen.

Her plan is light on details: the construction funding (she targets $40bn) would go to local governments, who would need to find their own solutions. Meanwhile, other elements would cut against her ambitious supply targets. She vows to go after Wall Street investors, whom she decries as "buying up and marking up homes in bulk". They actually own less than 1% of America's single-family homes, and have been building, rather than just buying, homes. Another pledge--one that received loud applause when she unveiled it in a speech in North Carolina on August 16th--is to give first-time homebuyers $25,000 towards downpayments on mortgages. With demand for homes still outstripping supply, extra cash of this kind may just translate into higher prices.

Source: The Economist on 2024 Presidential hopefuls Aug 21, 2024

The above quotations are from Columns and news articles in The Economist magazine.
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Page last updated: Sep 29, 2024