Trump campaign vs. Trump administration: on War & Peace


Donald Trump: Disallow North Korea from developing nuclear delivery system

President-elect Donald Trump tweeted that North Korea won't reach the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon that will be able to hit the United States: "North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the U.S. It won't happen!" the president-elect wrote.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said during his annual New Year's address that preparations for launching an intercontinental ballistic missile have "reached the final stage." The development came after the country claims it tested its first hydrogen bomb last year.

North Korea, which has been at odds with the United States since the start of the Korean War in 1950, first tested a nuclear weapon in 2006. A nuclear test was conducted last year on Jan. 6.

Source: Politico.com analysis of 2017 Trump transition Twitter post Jan 2, 2017

Donald Trump: If Venezuela unravels, why can't we invade?

At a meeting last August to discuss sanctions on Venezuela, President Donald Trump turned to his top aides and asked an unsettling question: With a fast unraveling Venezuela threatening regional security, why can't the U.S. just simply invade the troubled country?

The suggestion stunned those present at the meeting, who took turns explaining to Trump how military action could backfire and risk losing hard-won support among Latin American governments.

But Trump pushed back. Although he gave no indication he was about to order up military plans, he pointed to what he considered past cases of successful gunboat diplomacy in the region, like the invasions of Panama and Grenada in the 1980s.

The idea, despite his aides' best attempts to shoot it down, would nonetheless persist in the president's head. Shortly afterward, he raised the issue with Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos. Two high-ranking Colombian officials confirmed the report.

Source: AP News on 2018 Trump Administration Jul 5, 2018

Donald Trump: Consider all options to restore Venezuela's democracy

In Sept. 2017, Trump discussed invading Venezuela in a private dinner with leaders from four Latin American allies. Trump was specifically briefed not to raise the issue, but the first thing the president said at the dinner was, "My staff told me not to say this." Trump then went around asking each leader if they were sure they didn't want a military solution; each leader told Trump in clear terms they were sure.

A National Security Council spokesman reiterated that the US will consider all options at its disposal to help restore Venezuela's democracy and bring stability. Under Trump's leadership, the US, EU, and Canada have levied sanctions on dozens of top Venezuelan officials, including Venezuelan leader Maduro, over allegations of corruption and human rights abuses.

Maduro has long claimed that the U.S. has military designs on Venezuela and its vast oil reserves. Even some of the staunchest U.S. allies were begrudgingly forced to side with Maduro in condemning Trump's saber rattling.

Source: AP News on 2018 Trump Administration Jul 5, 2018

Donald Trump: 2016: secret plan to defeat ISIS; 2018: caliphate gone

Donald Trump made this pledge in April 2016: "We're gonna beat ISIS very, very quickly, folks. I have a great plan. They ask, 'What is it?' Well, I'd rather not say."

At the time, it seemed unlikely he would ever have to make good on the promise. However, Trump's surprise victory gave him the chance to back up his claim. Many were openly skeptical he could do it.

But one year into the Trump administration, the facts on the ground--in Syria and Iraq--have changed dramatically. The 'Caliphate' announced with such fanfare in the summer of 2014 was in tatters. "We have made, alongside our coalition partners, more progress against these evil terrorists in the past several months than in the past several years," Trump proclaimed last fall. So is ISIS now defeated?

President Trump deserves credit for hastening the downfall of their Caliphate. However, ISIS 2018 will launch an insurgency in its former territory. ISIS has access to electronic spaces where it can continue recruitment efforts.

Source: Heritage Commentary on 2018 Trump Administration Jan 29, 2018

Heritage Foundation: Stop ISIS from presenting itself as a credible government

The ISIS threat has mutated and will continue to mutate. While the loss of the "Caliphate" damages the ISIS brand, it maintains sufficient cachet to inspire attacks abroad. ISIS also has options for alternative safe havens that could allow it to recover.

Therefore, the Trump administration should accept that a huge amount of work lies ahead in the next three (or seven) years. The military, law enforcement and intelligence agencies will be at the forefront of the response. Yet stopping ISIS from presenting itself as a credible government in areas where it still retains a presence is also an important task. In those areas, the United States must help promote responsive and representative governance.

The administration must also frame the problem correctly. The Islamist threat will transcend any one presidency. Victory is not just around the corner. Nevertheless, the Trump administration could lay the groundwork for a strategy that will one day deliver it.

Source: Heritage Commentary on 2018 Trump Administration Jan 29, 2018

James Mattis: Pentagon was aware that 2003 Iraq invasion was a mistake

President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for secretary of defense called the 2003 invasion of Iraq a "mistake," according to a recording obtained by The Intercept. "Ladies and gentlemen," Mattis said, "we will probably look back on the invasion of Iraq as a mistake--as a strategic mistake."

Mattis was one of the Iraq campaign's most important ground commanders. He led the 1st Marine Division during the invasion and later oversaw the bloody retaking of Fallujah from insurgents in 2004.

As for the Pentagon's view on the Iraq invasion at the time, Mattis said this: "I think people were pretty much aware that the U.S. military didn't think it was a very wise idea. But we give a cheery 'Aye aye, sir.' Because when you elect someone commander in chief--we give our advice. We generally give it in private." Mattis's comments came during a question-and-answer session after a keynote delivered last year at ASIS International, a conference for global security professionals.

Source: The Intercept coverage of 2016 Trump transition Dec 5, 2016

James Mattis: Supports the Iran nuclear agreement

Highlights from Mattis' confirmation hearings:

Mattis said he supported the Iran nuclear agreement, which Trump has repeatedly criticized.

Source: N.Y. Times on 2017 Trump transition Confirmation Hearings Jan 12, 2017

James Mattis: Iran is single most enduring threat to stability and peace

Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) asked Mattis about his views on the Iran nuclear deal. Mattis, in April 2016, called Iran "the single most enduring threat to stability and peace in the Middle East." In response to Reed's question, he said, "I think it is an imperfect arms control agreement--it's not a friendship treaty. But when America gives her word, we have to live up to it and work with our allies." In March 2016, Trump said, "My number one priority is to dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran."
Source: Ballotpedia.org: 2017 Trump transition confirmation hearings Jan 13, 2017

James Mattis: North Korea must be stopped, but by diplomatic means

Mattis was reminded by a reporter that as commander of US forces in the Mideast several years ago, he considered Iran to be the biggest threat to U.S. interests. Asked how he would deal with Iran as secretary of defense, Mattis called Tehran a problem but quickly pivoted to condemning North Korea and described the isolated, communist country as the more immediate threat.

"This is a threat of both rhetoric and growing capability," Mattis said, alluding to the North's recent progress in building nuclear bombs and developing an intercontinental ballistic missile to deliver such weapons to U.S. soil. The Trump administration has been conducting a broad policy review of North Korea that includes military options, but Mattis stressed other approaches. "We are working diplomatically, including with those that we might be able to enlist in this effort to get North Korea under control," he said. "But right now it appears to be going in a very reckless manner. That's got to be stopped."

Source: Associated Press on 2017 Trump Administration Mar 31, 2017

James Mattis: Keep U.S. troops in Syria indefinitely to defeat ISIS

[In light of two UN and DOD reports about the resurgence of ISIS], the Trump Administration has reversed course; it is now keeping US troops in Syria indefinitely.

The US has three missions to complete before it can withdraw. "One, we have to destroy ISIS. The President's been very clear that ISIS is to be taken out," Secretary of Defense James Mattis said on August 28th. "We also have to have trained local troops who can take over."

The Trump Administration also does not want to withdraw U.S. troops, Mattis said, until a peace process is under way to end the war in Syria and map the country's political future. "We need the Geneva process--the UN-recognized process--to start making traction towards solving this war," Mattis said. "Now, if the locals are able to keep the security, obviously during this time we might be reducing our troops commensurate with their ability to deny ISIS a return, but it really comes down to finding a way to solve this problem of Assad's making."

Source: The New Yorker on 2018 Trump Administration Aug 30, 2018

James Mattis: Shift from war of attrition against ISIS to annihilation

The US was already at war with ISIS prior to Trump's election. Progress was undeniably slow and, days after being inaugurated, President Trump signed an Executive Order requesting a Pentagon-led review be provided on how ISIS could be defeated.

Secretary of Defense James Mattis outlined that President Trump "delegated authority to the right level to aggressively and in a timely manner move against enemy vulnerabilities." This meant that when those on the ground requested airstrikes, fewer layers of sign-off were required; the approval process was decentralized and, subsequently, faster.

Mattis has also said that another change was a "shift from shoving ISIS out of safe locations in an attrition fight to surrounding the enemy in their strongholds so we can annihilate ISIS." The purpose behind this, Mattis outlined, was to dry up the flow of foreign fighters leaving the region.

Source: Heritage Commentary on 2018 Trump Administration Jan 29, 2018

John Bolton: To stop Iran's bomb, bomb Iran

To stop Iran's bomb, bomb Iran. Extensive progress in uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing reveal Iran's ambitions.

The Obama administration's increasingly frantic efforts to reach agreement with Iran have spurred demands for ever-greater concessions from Washington. The president's policy is empowering Iran, effectively handing a permit to Iran's nuclear weapons establishment.

The inescapable conclusion is that Iran will not negotiate away its nuclear program. Nor will sanctions block its building a broad and deep weapons infrastructure. The inconvenient truth is that only military action can accomplish what is required. Time is terribly short, but a strike can still succeed.

Rendering inoperable the Natanz and Fordow uranium-enrichment installations and the Arak heavy-water production facility and reactor would be priorities. Such action should be combined with vigorous American support for Iran's opposition, aimed at regime change in Tehran.

Source: NYTimes on 2018 Trump Administration, "Iran's bomb" Mar 26, 2015

John Bolton: Advocated violent regime change in Tehran and Pyongyang

Bolton, despite his avuncular mustachioed appearance, is an unrepentant champion of foreign intervention who has advocated violent regime change in Tehran and Pyongyang. The Trump-Kim summit almost didn't happen following Bolton's ill-advised remark about North Korea adhering to the "Libya model"--a reference that North Korean officials took as a threat. (Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi was famously run out of power and executed in the streets after agreeing to dismantle his weapons program--a fate that Kim is particularly sensitive to avoid.) North Korean officials responded angrily, characterizing the comparison as "absurd" and "awfully sinister," and Bolton was seemingly benched. Though he ultimately attended the summit in Singapore, Bolton's absence from an Oval Office meeting between Trump and a top North Korean official, Kim Yong Chol, days before the meeting on June 12, was particularly noteworthy.
Source: Vanity Fair on 2018 Trump Administration Jun 18, 2018

Mike Pompeo: I opposed Iran deal; I'll gather clear-eyed info about it

Pompeo discussed how his transition would relate to specific policies areas such as the Iran nuclear deal and Russia. He said, "While as a Member of Congress I opposed the Iran deal, if confirmed, my role will change. It will be to drive the Agency to aggressively pursue collection operations and ensure analysts have the time, political space, and resources to make objective and methodologically sound judgments. If confirmed, I will present their judgments to policymakers. The same goes for Russia. It is a policy decision as to what to do with Russia, but I understand it will be essential that the Agency provide policymakers with accurate intelligence and clear-eyed analysis of Russian activities."
Source: Ballotpedia.org: 2017 Trump transition confirmation hearings Jan 13, 2017

Mike Pompeo: OpEd: Supported Iraq war then & supports Iran war now

Rand Paul is vowing to do everything he can to stop Mike Pompeo from becoming secretary of state. The libertarian-leaning GOP senator said that Pompeo's earlier support for the Iraq war and defense of enhanced interrogation techniques--or "torture" in the view of Paul and many other senators--is disqualifying.

Paul serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, where the GOP enjoys just a one-seat advantage. With Paul opposed, Pompeo could receive an unfavorable committee verdict, which would be a serious black mark on Pompeo's nomination.

Pompeo's previous pushes for regime change in Iran and his hawkish world view are also at odds with Trump and therefore he should not be given the job, Paul argued. "I'm perplexed by the nomination of people who love the Iraq War so much that they would advocate for a war with Iran next," Paul said. "it goes against most of the things Pres. Trump campaigned on, that the unintended consequences of regime change in Iraq led to instability in the Middle East."

Source: Politico.com on 2018 Trump Administration Mar 14, 2018

Mike Pompeo: Caution with history of deceit by North Korea

Pompeo asserted that the US could compel North Korea to do what most experts believe North Korea never will: fully give up its nuclear weapons. Pompeo has noted North Korea's record of negotiating in bad faith.

He points to "the history of deceit" of the Kim regime, which overt the last 25 years has repeatedly reneged on commitments to curb its nuclear activities. At the CIA, where he established a center devoted to addressing North Korea, Pompeo has also been intimately acquainted with just how formidable the North Korean nuclear program has become. While he's characterized the Trump administration's ultimate goal as ridding North Korea of nuclear weapons, he's suggested that the administration's near-term objectives are more modest: keeping North Korea from progressing further than where it is, which is on the verge of perfecting the technology to place a nuclear warhead on an intercontinental ballistic missile that can reach the United States.

Source: The Atlantic magazine on 2018 Trump Administration Mar 14, 2018

Mike Pompeo: Cease US joint military exercises with South Korea

Pompeo sees diplomacy as bloodsport. When he first met with Kim Jong Un in North Korea, the North Korean dictator immediately challenged Pompeo, who previously suggested North Koreans "would love to see Kim go." Pompeo didn't flinch. The CIA director joked that he was still trying to kill him, this former staffer said, and both men laughed.

Trump's meeting with Kim was long and productive, at least from the North Korean perspective. After the summit concluded, Trump announced that Pyongyang had "re-affirmed" its commitment to a denuclearized Korean peninsula and that the U.S. would cease its joint military exercises with South Korea, which he characterized as expensive and "very provocative."

The summit appeared to be a major win for North Korea based off the joint statement signed by the two leaders. One expert opined, "The president continues to say that Kim is giving up his nuclear weapons. Kim continues to refuse to promise that. I don't know how long they can keep fudging this."

Source: Vanity Fair on 2018 Trump Administration Jun 18, 2018

Rex Tillerson: Opposed US sanctions against Russia over Crimea annexation

Tillerson's confirmation hearing comes at a time of rising tensions with Russia over its role in the U.S. presidential election and an assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies that Russia was behind the hacks of political figures in an effort to help Trump win the Nov. 8 election. Moscow has denied the allegations.

Tillerson opposed U.S. sanctions against Russia in 2014 over its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine because he thought they would be ineffective.

In 2012, Tillerson received the "Order of Friendship" award from Putin. The same year, Exxon deepened its cooperation with Russian oil company Rosneft to expand an oil drilling project in the Arctic after U.S. sanctions over Ukraine were imposed.

Source: Fortune mag. on 2017 Trump transition Confirmation Hearings Jan 11, 2017

Rex Tillerson: Destroy the Islamic State; be wary of China's behavior

Tillerson emphasized the need to destroy Islamic State, and criticized China's behavior in the South China Sea and call on Beijing to pressure North Korea.
Source: Fortune mag. on 2017 Trump transition Confirmation Hearings Jan 11, 2017

Rex Tillerson: Create right conditions for negotiations with North Korea

Mike Pompeo will lead America's outreach to North Korea when he replaces Rex Tillerson at the State Department. Pompeo will become the nation's chief diplomat just as the Trump administration is preparing to negotiate directly with the North Koreans for the first time.

At the State Department and CIA, respectively, Tillerson and Pompeo have both prioritized the North Korean nuclear threat and focused on pressuring North Korea economically and diplomatically. But whereas Tillerson has expressed eagerness to create the right conditions for negotiations with North Korea, Pompeo has voiced profound skepticism about what such talks can accomplish.

Whereas Tillerson has been associated with a faction in the administration resistant to military options to deal with the North's nuclear program, Pompeo has taken a more aggressive position. Tillerson declared that the US wasn't seeking regime change in North Korea; Pompeo suggested ways to "separate" Kim Jong Un from his nuclear weapons.

Source: The Atlantic magazine on 2018 Trump Administration Mar 14, 2018

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