A viewer asked this question on 3/8/2000:
What in your view is the greatest challenge facing the United States over the next twenty years?
What, in your view, is the most important role of the US Intelligence Community in the post-Cold War world?
JesseGordon gave this response on 3/8/2000:
The greatest challenge today, I'd say, is how to define the US's role in leading the world. The post-Cold War world is uncharted territory - do we define a new enemy to replace the Soviet Union? (presumably China). Or do we move to a new international regime which is no longer "bipolar" like the Cold War?
I think challenge today is how to define America's role in the future, when we are no longer the pre-eminent super-power (i.e., when Japan, China, Europe, and maybe Russia are more equal to us than they are now). I could see many politicians saying "We don't need to plan for other countries as equals -- that would mean America is falling from power!". I don't mean that at all -- I mean that the SUCCESS of America in bringing the rest of the world with us will translate into a need for dealing with others as equals.
I think the means by which we should do this is to use our current pre-eminence to set the stage for the time, 20 years hence, when we are no longer pre-eminent. In other words, we should spend the next 20 years creating a world that's good for Americans, looking forward to the time when we can no longer unilaterally change the world.
For example, we can further promote English as the de-facto international language and promote the dollar as the de-facto international currency - and we can create institutions that establish those and lock those in for the indefinite future. We can promote the Internet (a US-based system) throughout the rest of the world, which will permanently establish ourselves as a technological center. We can promote the commercialization of space and the deep oceans, which will further place us in the center after we're not the sole superpower.
If you'd like to read further about that idea, I wrote a lengthy study about it in 1995, entitled "America's Long Term Future. It's on-line at http://webmerchants.com/spectrum/altf_es.htm .
Where does the intelligence community fit into that scheme? Well, it doesn't. The CIA is a tool of the Cold War. Its mission was to keep us abreast of our enemies' activities and keep our secrets from getting into their hands. Those things don't matter nearly so much any more, since the nukes are no longer on a hair trigger. I think the CIA should be scaled back dramatically - limit their activities to keeping tabs on Saddam and other bad guys, but even that task can be done in great part by satellites.
sylvia1 rated this answer:
Excellent response. Thought provoking. Thanks for the web address.
sylvia1 asked this question on 3/8/2000:
What in your view is the greatest challenge facing the United States over the next twenty years?
What, in your view, is the most important role of the US Intelligence Community in the post-Cold War world?
budgetanalyst gave this response on 3/8/2000:
The greatest challenges for the United States in the next 20 years are, in my opinion:
(1) domestically, the integration of all people into the full benefits of citizenship (this means African-Americans and Latinos and Indians as well as the many new immigrants of many races who are arriving every day) without violence while reducing the levels of violent and anti-social behavior on the parts of both the citizens and governments, and
(2) internationally, the integration into the world of peaceful and progressive nations of China and Russia and the components of the former Soviet Union.
The most important role for the U.S. intelligence community is to provide the information necessary to address the issues presented by (2), above, to avoid intelligence "surprises" in the future (such as the failure to foresee the collapse of the Soviet Union) and to provide accurate information on what may come up as an issue for the United States in the rest of the world.
I hope that this answers your questions, and remember that experts like to be rated.
sylvia1 rated this answer:
Excellent response, thanks. let's discuss a bit more in details. Let's get into the weeds of things.
budgetanalyst asked for clarification on 3/9/2000:
I hope that the "weeds" are not too tall. There is plenty that cannot be foreseen in the world, including physical, technological, and cultural change, to keep discussions like this going forever, as well as the need for think tanks and intelligence agencies. (The Heritage Foundation was writing about the collapse of Soviet might years before it happened, and long before the official intelligence apparatus recognized the matter.)