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Background on Foreign Policy
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United Nations
- The UN was founded in 1945 with 51 member countries. Its membership has since grown to 189 member countries, with representation from about 90% of the world's countries.
- UN Members are sovereign countries. The UN is not a world government, and it does not make laws. It does, however, provide the means to help resolve international conflict and formulate policies on matters affecting every country.
Some of the UN's major organs are:
- The General Assembly: All UN Member States are represented in the General Assembly - a kind of parliament of nations which meets to consider the world's most pressing problems. Each Member State has one vote.
- The Security Council: The organ with primary responsibility for maintaining international peace and security. There are 15 Council members. Five of these - China, France, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States - are permanent members. The other 10 are elected by the General Assembly for two-year terms. Member States have discussed making changes in Council membership to reflect today's political and economic realities.
- UN peacekeeping operations are established by the Security Council. There's an ongoing UN presence in Kashmir since 1949; in Cyprus since 1964, and in Kosovo since 1999, for a few examples. The US commits troops to some of these peacekeeping efforts.
- The Economic and Social Council: Under the authority of the General Assembly, its organs include the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the UN Development Programme (UNDP), and the UN Children's Fund.
- The International Court of Justice: The "World Court" is the main judicial organ of the UN. Consisting of 15 judges elected by the General Assembly and the Security Council, the Court decides disputes between countries. Participation by States in a proceeding is voluntary, but if a State agrees to participate, it is obligated to comply with the Court's decision.
- The International Monetary Fund: The IMF, the World Bank, and other specialized agencies are linked to the UN through cooperative international agreements.
- The UN System: In addition to financial organizations, other specialized agencies include: the World Health Organization, the Universal Postal Union, the International Civil Aviation Organization, and other treaty-based organizations for international cooperation and commerce.
- The US failed to pay its UN dues, until the total reached almost $1 billion in 2000. In May 2001, the House voted 252-165 to withhold $244 million in back dues the US had agreed to pay, until the UN restored the US seat on the UN Human Rights Commission.
- Despite the failure to pay dues, the US contributed a total of more than $1.4 billion dollars to the UN system in other assessments, and spent an additional $8.7 billion from the US military budget to support various UN resolutions and peacekeeping operations around the world.
- The UN budget (1999) is about $1.3 billion per year for the UN itself and about $10 billion for the UN system (excluding the separate budgets for the IMF and World Bank).
‘One China’ Policy
The US, the ROC, and the PRC agreed in 1972 to the ‘One China’ policy, under which all parties abide by the fiction that China is one country currently under two governments but awaiting eventual reunification.
China is formally known as ‘The People’s Republic of China’, or ‘PRC.’ The PRC is home to nearly a billion and a half people, over 20% of the world’s population. The PRC has been ruled by the Chinese Communist Party since 1949.
Taiwan is known as ‘The Republic of China’ or ‘ROC.’ Taiwan is an island off the coast of the PRC, and has a democratically elected government.
Taiwan is home to 21 million people, but its economy is comparable in size to the PRC.
Taiwan split from the PRC during the Communist Revolution, when the former government was driven off the mainland by the Communists.
The US has promised to defend Taiwan against an invasion from China. China has promised to invade if Taiwan declares independence, most recently in July 1999 when Taiwan's President declared the ‘One China’ policy a fiction.
The current US policy is called ‘strategic ambiguity’: we are intentionally unclear on what would provoke US intervention, so that neither China nor Taiwan will act rashly.
President Bush removed some of the ambiguity in April 2001, by declarnig that the US would unambiguously defend Taiwan with military force in the case of a Chinese invasion.
The Cox Report
A House of Representatives Committee chaired by Rep. Christopher Cox released a National Security report in May 1999 known as the ‘Cox Report.’
The report detailed how the Chinese government spied on US nuclear facilities over the last two decades and as a result was able to improve their nuclear capabilities.
A secret version of the report was released to President Clinton in January 1999.
The candidates’ views on the Cox Report focus on what should be done to prevent further Chinese spying, and on what the government should do about past Chinese spying.
MFN
‘MFN’ means that China is treated in our trade relations in the same manner as we treat our ‘Most Favored Nations’ as trading partners.
Granting China MFN status means that we have open trade with them.
Congress reviews MFN status annually to decide if China should be granted MFN status for the next year.
Granting MFN status in recent years has been tied to the improvement of China’s human rights record. Talks are held between the US and the PRC to decide which human rights violations will be addressed, and then MFN status is granted.
The term ‘MFN’ has been replaced this year by ‘Normal Trading Relations’, abbreviated ‘NTR’, which means the same thing.
The US House of Representatives voted in May 2000 to grant China ‘Permanent NTR’ status, ending the annual debate.
WTO
The World Trade Organization is the international agency which defines the rules of global trade between nations. Its purpose is to ensure free trade.
Its 135 member nations, including the US and most other large economies, agree to keep import tariffs below specified levels when applied to other WTO members.
China is seeking membership in the WTO because that would ensure China of free trade with other WTO members. If granted WTO membership, China would no longer be subject to its annual MFN review.
But China would also have to abide by the WTO trade rules themselves, which would mean lowering their import tariffs against US goods.
The Senate overwhelmingly (83-15) voted for PNTR for China in September 2000 and President Clinton signed it into law. This law included the US's agreement for China's entry into the WTO.
China Buzzwords
- ‘Defend Taiwan’ by increasing military aid, or by reducing US strategic ambiguity, or by disavowing the ‘One China’ policy, is a buzzword that implies an anti-China stance.
- Mentioning ‘Tibet’, ‘Xinjiang’, ‘Tiananmen’, when discussing China implies that one would restrict trade with China on human rights grounds.
- ‘Tibet’ is the Buddhist province (bordering Nepal and India), home of the exiled Dalai Lama, where the Chinese invaded in 1959, and have been putting down Buddhist uprisings since.
- ‘Xinjiang’ is the Islamic province in the west of China (bordering Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Islamic former Soviet republics), known to Muslims as Uighurstan or East Turkestan, where the Chinese have been putting down uprisings even more severley and secretively than in Tibet.
- ‘Tiananmen’ refers to the massacre in Tiananmen Square (central Beijing) on June 4, 1989, where thousands of protestors demanding democracy and an open society were killed by the Chinese army.
- ‘Being tough’ on China implies a desire to limit trade with China. ‘Being tough’ on China takes different forms each year: in 1999, one would say ‘Heed the Cox Report’; in 2000, ‘Crack down on Chinese spies’; in 2001, ‘Demand our spy plane back.’
- Often, trade with Vietnam is a proxy for one's views on trade with China. One usually supports or opposes open trade with Vietnam on the same grounds that one does so with China, except without the geopolitical underpinning.
Russia
- Russia continues to suffer from 50% annual inflation and a recession exacerbated by the Asian economic crisis. The IMF is planning to shore up Russia with a $4.5 billion loan.
- US-Russian relations were strained by the Kosovo conflict (Russia has historically supported the Serbs); the expansion of NATO (we added 3 former Soviet satellites over Russian objections in 1997); the war in Chechnya (a Russian province suffering from a Muslim uprising and independence movement); and uncertainty over President Yeltsin's political stability.
- Vladimir Putin won election as President of Russia in early 2000. President George W. Bush met with Putin shortly after Bush's inauguration in January 2001.
- While Chechnya still is a thorn in the side of US-Russian relations, Russia's assistance in the US war in Afghanistan seems likely to foster good relations and additional US economic aid.
Israel & Palestine
- The hard-line Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu lost the election to Ehud Barak in May 1999. Barak had re-opened peace talks with Syria and Lebanon as of July 1999, promising a negotiated peace with both by next year.
- A land-for-peace deal was negotiated with Palestine in the Wye River Accords of 1998, but the process was stalled under Netanyahu. The Palestinian Authority under Yassir Arafat currently controls 27% of the land area of West Bank and Gaza; the Wye River Accords would add 13%. The current land area includes 98% of the Palestinian population.
- Ariel Sharon, a conservative hard-liner and former military leader, won election as Prime Minister in 2001, in large part because of Israeli frustration at the continuing Intifadeh, or Palestinian uprising.
- Israel has occupied Syria's Golan Heights since 1967. Israel has controlled much of South Lebanon since the early 1980s, with Syria controlling much of the rest of Lebanon. Negotiations with Syria will focus on returning Golan to Syria and returning Lebanon to independence.
Iraq
- Since the Gulf War in 1991, the US has launched 4 major military strikes against Iraq, most recently Operation Desert Fox in December 1998.
- The US and UN continue to actively enforce a containment policy against Saddam Hussein; our primary tools are the 'no-fly zones' and an economic embargo.
- During the US War on Terror, Saddam has been regularly accused of state-sponsored terrorism and of building bioterrorism weapons, but has laid low during the prosecution of the war.
North Korea
- As many as 2 million have died from starvation since 1995. Drought and famine continue today, and South Korea is concerned that the North will attack if facing imminent political collapse.
- Naval clashes threatened open warfare in spring and summer 1999.
- In 2000, the regime placed emphasis on expanding foreign trade links, embracing modern technology, and attracting foreign investment, but in no way at the expense of relinquishing central control over key national assets or undergoing market-oriented reforms.
- North Korean President Kim made a trip to Moscow in 2000, his first trip ever out of the country, but spent 10 days traveling in each direction by train because he refused to fly.
Asian Economic Crisis
The economies of the Asia-Pacific region until 1997 seemed to be rushing towards prosperity on par with the US and Europe.
But in July 1997, the currencies of Thailand and Indonesia collapsed, followed by recessions throughout East Asia.
The 'Asian Miracle' countries were characterized by limited democracy (usually one-party) in open economies (albeit via political insiders).
The current situation is:
- Japan: In slump since 1990 and in recession since June 1998; Japan outlined an Emergency Economic Package in Nov. 1998.
- Indonesia: President Suharto resigned after 1998 riots in which 1,200 were killed; elections promised for 1999.
- East Timor: Indonesia invaded East Timor in 1975 shortly after Portugal granted it independence. This island of 800,000 people (to Indonesia's 200 million) voted 80% for independence in August 1999.
In September, Pres. Habibie invited in an Australian-led, UN-sponsored force of 7,000, including US support groups but no troops, to stop a massacre by the Indonesian army.
- China: Holding the line on devaluing its currency is credited with stopping total Asian economic collapse.
China's economy has been growing by 8-10% annually in recent years, by far the world's fastest growth. They maintain a partially open economy with a Communist government.
- Asian Tigers: Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan all suffered minor recessions and are currently recovering.
- ASEAN: Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, and Thailand were economically weaker than the more developed 'Tigers,' and suffered accordingly.
Nevertheless, ASEAN admitted 4 new members (Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos), which may open and democratize those countries.
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