Speculation about the 2008 Presidential race

The 2008 election seems to be coming soon, if one reads the news reports. We report some of the speculation here, for potential candidates who are likely to throw their hats into the ring.

STATUS REPORTS: We report below the legal status of presidential campaigns.

NEWS CLIPS: The latest announcements from the potential candidates.

BOOK EXCERPTS: Quotations from each presidential contender's books.

OnTheIssues.org excerpts:  (click on issues for details)

Budget & Economy     Mark Warner: Popularity based on credit for saving state’s finances.

Civil Rights     Rudy Giuliani: Pro gay rights.     Hillary Clinton: Pushing for privacy bill of rights.     Hillary Clinton: Op-ed: Sponsored flag-burning bill for centrist credential.     Mitt Romney: Opposed gay marriage but played fair and upheld law.

Energy & Oil     Al Gore: An Inconvenient Truth: Gore’s movie about global warming.     Al Gore: Global warming captured Gore’s interest as student.

Health Care     Mitt Romney: State universal coverage plan is national test case.

Immigration     Bill Frist: Crafted bipartisan compromise immigration bill.

Principles & Values     Tom Vilsack: Launches presidential bid; files FEC paperwork.     Barack Obama: On cover of Time magazine, about his book & presidency.     John Kerry: Last nominee to get 2nd chance was Adlai Stevenson in 1956.     Rudy Giuliani: Favored for presidential nomination in CNN poll of GOP.     Rudy Giuliani: Socially liberal stances: weak in primary; strong in general.     Evan Bayh: Bayh sends staffers to early primary states & “Camp Bayh”.     John Edwards: Maintains PAC, One America Committee.     Mark Warner: Term-limited as governor in 2008.     Mark Warner: We can’t win presidency in only 16 blue states.     Russell Feingold: Launched presidential PAC, the Progressive Patriots Fund.     Hillary Clinton: Poll: support among women 13% higher than among men.     Hillary Clinton: Hillary’s paradox: she’s not as liberal as people think.     Howard Dean: DNC pursuing a 50-state strategy to take back the House.     Al Gore: On 2008: “Been there, done that; not pursuing it”.     Al Gore: On 2008: can bide his time & raise Internet money later.     Jeb Bush: Poll: Jeb would lose to Hillary because of “Bush fatigue”.     John McCain: Poll: Hillary vs. McCain in 2008 would be “nailbiter”.     Russell Feingold: Declines congressional pay raise.     Jeb Bush: Pres. Bush plugs Jeb for President; Jeb declines comment.     George Allen: Conservative alternative to McCain in presidential jockeying.     Al Gore: Parallels to Nixon’s comeback from 1960 vs. 1968.     Mitt Romney: Faces questions on Mormonism like Kennedy did on Catholicism.     Mitt Romney: Not seeking re-election as governor; speaking around US.     Al Gore: Documentary reintroduces more likable Gore to public.     Hillary Clinton: Early frontrunner based on name recognition and money.     Joe Biden: Plans to seek presidential nomination in 2008.

War & Peace     John Kerry: Regrets nothing more that his 2002 vote for Iraq War.     Mark Warner: On Hezbollah soldier abductions: “Stands with Israel”.     John Kerry: Kerry now fully engaged in fighting Swift Boat Veterans.     John Kerry: Kerry releases Navy records to prove his version of Vietnam.     John Kerry: Caught off-guard in 2004 by unexpected attacks on war record.     John Edwards: On voting for Iraq War: “I was wrong”.

Click for quotations from other sources by: Al Gore Barack Obama Bill Frist Evan Bayh George Allen Hillary Clinton Howard Dean Jeb Bush Joe Biden John Edwards John Kerry John McCain Mark Warner Mitt Romney Rudy Giuliani Russell Feingold Tom Vilsack

STATUS REPORT:

REPUBLICANS

George Allen (Former Virginia Senator) Never entered race.

Michael Bloomberg (NYC Mayor).

Sam Brownback (Kansas Senator) Withdrew Nov. 2007.

Jeb Bush (Governor of Florida): Never entered race.

John Cox (Chair of Cook County GOP, Chicago IL).

Bill Frist (Tennessee Senator): Withdrew Nov. 2006.

Newt Gingrich (former Speaker of the House): Opted out of race, Sept. 2007.

James Gilmore (former Governor of Virginia): Withdrew July 2007.

Rudy Giuliani (former NYC Mayor). Withdrew Jan. 30, 2008, after Florida primary

Chuck Hagel (Nebraska Senator): Never entered race.

Mike Huckabee (Governor of Arkansas).

Duncan Hunter (California Representative). Withdrew after Nevada caucuses, Jan. 2008

Alan Keyes (Maryland talk-show host): Drafted, Sept. 2007.

John McCain (Arizona Senator).

George Pataki (New York Governor): Never entered race.

Ron Paul (Texas Representative).

Mitt Romney (Massachusetts Governor).

Tom Tancredo (Colorado Representative): Withdrew, Dec. 2007.

Fred Thompson (former TN Senator). Withdrew Jan. 2008 after SC primary

Tommy Thompson (former Wisconsin Governor and Secretary of HHS): Withdrew Aug. 2007.

Mark Sanford (South Carolina Governor): Never entered race.

DEMOCRATS

Evan Bayh (IN Senator): Withdrew Dec. 2006.

Joe Biden (DE Senator): Withdrew after Iowa Cuacus, Jan 2008.

Wes Clark (former NATO commander): Never entered race.

Hillary Clinton (NY Senator).

Tom Daschle (Former SD Senator): Never entered race.

Christopher Dodd (CT Senator): Withdrew after Iowa Cuacus, Jan 2008.

John Edwards (former NC Senator). Withdrew Jan. 30, 2008, after Florida primary.

Russ Feingold (WI Senator): Withdrew Nov. 2006.

Al Gore (former V.P.): Never entered race.

Mike Gravel (former AK Senator).

John Kerry (MA Senator): Withdrew Jan. 2007.

Dennis Kucinich (OH Representative); withdrew Jan. 2008 to defend House seat.

Barack Obama (IL Senator).

Bill Richardson (NM Governor); withdrew after NH primary, Jan. 2008.

Al Sharpton (Reverend): Never entered race.

Tom Vilsack (IA Governor): Withdrew Feb. 2007.

Mark Warner (VA Governor): Withdrew Oct. 2006.

THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES

Independent: Michael Bloomberg (NYC Mayor)

PLS: Gloria La Riva (Liberation & Socialism)

Green Party: Cynthia McKinney (Former GA Representative).

Socialist Party: Brian Moore

What does the legal status of presidential candidates mean?
• For all candidates above, we assume they are running for president in 2008. There is no legal obligation at any time during 2007 to actually file papers nor make any form of announcement. Hence candidates do so primarily for publicity purposes.

• EXPLORATORY COMMITTEE: Candidates use the term "exploratory committee" to indicate they are still at a tentative stage of preparation. An "exploratory committee" is a kind of campaign committee which allows donations while "testing the waters", without the full disclosure rules of a campaign committee. They are legally the same thing -- organizations formed to allow collecting donations for a campaign.

• DRAFT COMMITTEE: A draft committee is a political campaign committee formed without the authorization of the candidate, for the purpose of building a campaign network prior to any candidacy announcement, or to persuade the candidate to announce. They are grassroots organizations, usually, formed to publicize a potential candidacy.

• POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES: Many candidates form PACs for the purpose of collecting donations to redistribute to other candidates (and to publicize the candidate doing the redistribution). PACs legally differ from campaign committees because they are (in theory) not focused on a campaign. Nevertheless, they are sometimes a good indication that a candidate plans to run.

• CANDIDACY PAPERS: Candidates must file legal paperwork with the FEC for either of the above types of committees. This paperwork is public, so the press reports when a new campaign committee is formed.

• CANDIDACY ANNOUNCEMENT: There is no legal meaning to "announcing" a candidacy, and typically candidates "announce" as often as possible. The press reports heavily on the first announcement, although candidates recognize that and try to get more than one "first" announcement. This election cycle includes numerous pre-announcements such as announcing formation of an exploratory committee; announcing a timeline for creating an exploratory committee; and announcing the candidacy itself.

• PRE-CANDIDACY BOOK: A good indication of planning a presidential run is writing a book. Books by politicians are ostensibly about one's views on an issue or on politics in geenral, but in reality serve to introduce the public to the candidate and to get one's issue stances on the record. We list many such books below, and we will excerpt them in advance of the 2008 campaign.

NOTE: We stopped updating the news reports once the campaign season got "officially" underway. For more recent news, click on our Recent News Page. And for more recent excerpts from each candidate, click on their individual links above.

NEWS REPORTS: Where the candidates stand regarding announcement status, and committee status:
• June 19: Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I, NYC) re-registers as independent (instead of Republican). Bloomberg switched from Democratic registration in 2001 to run for Mayor.
• May 30: Sen. Fred Thompson (R, TN) hints at announcing.
• May 13: Sen. Chuck Hagel (R, NE) suggests he'd run as an independent with NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
• Apr. 26: Gov. James Gilmore (R, VA) formally announces campaign.

• Apr. 25: Sen. John McCain (R, AZ) formally announces campaign.

• Apr. 2: Rep. Tom Tancredo (R, CO) formally announces his candidacy.
• Apr. 1: Gov. Tommy Thompson (R, WI) formally announces his candidacy.
• Mar. 30: Sen. Fred Thompson (R, TN) speculation goes public.
• Mar. 1: Sen. John McCain (R, AZ) informally announces his candidacy.
• Feb. 23: Gov. Tom Vilsack (D, IA) withdraws his candidacy.
• Feb. 13: Gov. Mitt Romney (R, MA) announces his candidacy.
• Feb. 10: Sen. Barack Obama (D, IL) announces his candidacy.
• Feb. 5: Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R, NYC) files FEC papers for candidacy.
• Jan. 31: Sen. Joe Biden (D, DE) announces his candidacy.
• Jan. 29: Gov. Mike Huckabee (R, AR) announces he will file FEC papers for an exploratory committee.
• Jan. 25: Rep. Duncan Hunter (R, CA) announces his candidacy and that he has filed FEC papers for an exploratory committee.
• Jan. 24: Sen. John Kerry (D, MA) bows out of Presidential race.
• Jan. 20: Sen. Sam Brownback (R, KS): forms Exploratory Committee.
• Jan. 20: Sen. Hillary Clinton (D, NY): forms Exploratory Committee.
• Jan. 19: Gov. Bill Richardson (D, NM): forms Exploratory Committee.
• Jan. 16: Rep. Tom Tancredo (R, CO) announces he will file FEC papers for an exploratory committee.

• Jan. 16: Sen. Barack Obama (D, IL) announces he will file FEC papers for an exploratory committee.

• Jan. 12: Rep. Ron Paul (R, TX) announces formation of exploratory committee.

• Jan. 11: Sen. Christopher Dodd (D, CT) announces he will file FEC papers for the presidency.

• Jan. 10: Rev. Al Sharpton states publicly he's considering another presidential run.

• Jan. 9: Gov. James Gilmore (R, VA) announces plan to form Exploratory Committee.

• Jan. 8: Sen. Joe Biden announces plan to file candidacy by end of January.

• Jan. 2: Mayor Rudy Giuliani has $100M campaign strategy leaked.

• Dec. 27: Sen. John Edwards (D, NC) announces candidacy for president in New Orleans.

• Dec. 20: Gov. Mark Sanford (R, SC) arouses speculation.

• Dec. 18: Sen. John Edwards (D, NC) plans announcement of candidacy for president.

• Dec. 17: Sen. Evan Bayh (D, IN) withdraws candidacy for president.

• Dec. 11: Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D, OH) announces candidacy for president.

• Dec. 10: Sen. Barack Obama (D, IL) visits Democrtic party events in New Hampshire, the first primary state.

• Dec. 4: Sen. Sam Brownback (R, KS) forms exploratory committee and starts 10-state tour.

• Dec. 2: Sen. Hillary Clinton (D, NY) began meeting with Democratic members of Congress to "actively consider" her exploratory committee.

• Dec. 1: Sen. Evan Bayh (D, IN) announces Exploratory Committee

• Nov. 30: Gov. Tom Vilsack (D, IA) announces candidacy for President

• Nov. 29: Sen. Gov. Bill Frist (R, TN) withdraws from Presidential race, stating he will go on Sabbatical from public life. He had raised $7.5 million for his PAC during 2006.

• Nov. 20: CNN poll of possible choices for 2008 Democratic nominee (with links added by OnTheissues.org):
  • 33% Hillary Clinton (NY Senator): Hill PAC (PAC); Living History (book); Condi vs. Hillary (analysis by Dick Morris)
  • 15% Barack Obama (IL Senator): Hope Fund America (PAC); The Audacity of Hope (book); Senate campaign website
  • 14% John Edwards (former NC Senator): One America Committee (PAC); Home: The Blueprints of Our Lives (book)
  • 14% Al Gore (former V.P.): Draft Al Gore (draft committee); An Inconvenient Truth (book)
  • 7% John Kerry (MA Senator): Keeping America's Promise (PAC); The New War (book)
  • 4% Wes Clark (former NATO commander): Securing America (PAC); Waging Modern War (book)
  • 3% Joe Biden (DE Senator): Unite Our States (PAC); Collected Public Papers (CD-ROM)
  • 3% Bill Richardson (NM Governor): America For Richardson (draft committee); Between Worlds (book); 2006 campaign website
  • 2% Evan Bayh (IN Senator): All America PAC (PAC); From Father to Son (book)
  • 1% Tom Vilsack (IA Governor): Heartland PAC (state PAC); Collected Public Papers (CD-ROM)
  • Tom Daschle (Former SD Senator): New Leadership for America (PAC); Like No Other Time (book)
  • Christopher Dodd (CT Senator): Friends of Chris Dodd (campaign committee)
  • Dennis Kucinich (OH Rep.): Kucinich.US (Campaign website); A Prayer for America (book)
  • Al Sharpton (Rev.): The Al Sharpton Show (Talkshow website); Al On America (2003 book); Al Sharpton: Community Activist (2007 book)

• Nov. 17: John McCain & Rudy Giuliani form Exploratory Committees. Mitt Romney raises $9M for his PAC, but still has no campaign committee. Potential GOP nominees and their committee status:
  • Sam Brownback (Kansas Senator) -- Restore America (PAC); Building a Healthy Culture (book chapter)
  • Jeb Bush (Governor of Florida): FL Gov. (gubernatorial website); Profiles in Character (book)
  • Bill Frist (Tennessee Senator): VOL PAC (Senate Leadership committee); When Every Moment Counts (2002 book); A Senator Speaks Out (2006 book)
  • Newt Gingrich (former Speaker of the House): Winning the Future (Consultancy); Saving Lives & Saving Money (2003 book); Winning the Future (2005 book); Rediscovering God in America (2006 book)
  • Jim Gilmore (former VA Governor): USA Secure (Consultancy); Draft Gilmore (Draft Committee)
  • Rudy Giuliani (former NYC Mayor): Solutions America (PAC); Leadership (book); The Quotable Giuliani (biography)
  • Chuck Hagel (Senator) SandHills PAC (Senate Leadership committee); Moving Forward (book)
  • Mike Huckabee (Governor of Arkansas): Hope For America (PAC); From Hope to Higher Ground (2007 book); Living Beyond Your Lifetime (2000 book); Kids Who Kill (1998 book); Character Is the Issue (1997 book)
  • Duncan Hunter (California Representative): Peace Through Strength (PAC)
  • John McCain (Arizona Senator): Straight Talk America (PAC); Explore McCain (exploratory committee); Character Is Destiny (2005 book); Why Courage Matters (2004 book); Faith of My Fathers (1999 book)
  • George Pataki (New York Governor): 21st Century Freedom (PAC); Where I Come From (book)
  • Mitt Romney (Massachusetts Governor): Commonwealth PAC (PAC); A Mormon in the White House? (2007 book); Turnaround (2004 book)
  • Tommy Thompson (former Wisconsin Governor and Secretary of HHS): Forward America (PAC)
  • Tom Tancredo (Colorado Representative): Team America PAC; ; In Mortal Danger (2006 book)
  • Mark Sanford (South Carolina Governor): Gubernatorial campaign website

• Nov. 16: Gov. Tommy Thompson (R, WI) announces he will form an exploratory committee in January.
• Nov. 13: Sen. Russ Feingold had formed a presidential PAC, but called it off for 2008, leaving open a possible run in 2012.
• Nov. 8: Gov. Tom Vilsack (D, IA) files FEC papers the day after the 2006 election.
• Oct. 12: Gov. Mark Warner (D, VA) ruled out running for President in 2008. Pundits speculate he may run against Sen. John Warner for Senate in 2008, or for Governor of Virginia in 2009.

BOOK EXCERPTS: OnTheIssues' clips from candidate books:

Leadership, by Rudy Giuliani	Al On America, by Rev. Al Sharpton	The Audacity of Hope, by Sen. Barack Obama (D, IL)
A Call To Service, by Sen. John Kerry (D, MA)	Four Trials, by Sen. John Edwards	A Prayer for America, by Rep. Dennis Kucinich
Hillary's Choice by Gail Sheehy	Inventing Al Gore by Bill Turque	Winning the Future, by Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich
Tour of Duty, by Douglas Brinkley	Our Plan for America, , Kerry-Edwards campaign book	Dreams From My Father, by Barack Obama
Kerry's Biography,by Boston Globe Reporters	Why Courage Matters, by Sen. John McCain	Winning Modern Wars, by Gen. Wesley Clark
John McCain Faith of My Fathers	Al Gore Common Sense Government	Al Gore Earth in the Balance