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2024 Election Coverage:


2024 Senatorial debates:
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2023-2024 Gubernatorial debates:
  -   DE - IN - KY - LA - MO - MS - MT - NC - ND - NH - UT - VT - WA - WV -

   
   

Incoming 2025 Cabinet: Nov. 13th-23rd, 2024

Nominees for Cabinet, Sub-cabinet, and Ambassadors

President-Elect Trump's appointment announcements, and our issue coverage (for those with links)

Source: See additional Cabinet coverage.


Presidential Prediction: October 27th, 2024

We predict Kamala Harris will win the Electoral Vote 275-263, but Trump may win the "Judicial Vote"

We predict a victory for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in both the popular vote and the electoral vote. But we make no prediction about the actual outcome of the presidential election, because that will be up to the "judicial vote," which has been the most relevant factor in the presidential election since "Bush v. Gore" in 2000. We base this prediction on the actions of the Harris/Walz campaign (which has focused on winning the electoral vote) compared to the actions of the Trump/Vance campaign (which has focused on minimizing their popular vote loss, and on winning the judicial vote)....
    The Harris/Walz campaign has focused on winning the electoral vote by reaching out beyond voters who are already likely to vote Democratic on Nov. 5:
  • Kamala has appeared on numerous podcasts that reach young voters, and other groups who have traditionally low voter turnout rates. The Democrats are counting on young voters preferring Democrats, or at least preferring the candidate who has reached out to them.
  • The Harris/Walz campaign has reached out to minority voters, through proxies such as Barack Obama. Minority voters -- especially immigrants -- have been targeted by Republican "voter suppression" efforts, and the Democratic campaign strategy is to overwhelm those with voter volume.
  • Kamala has reached out to Republican "Never-Trumpers" extensively -- by emphasizing moderate stances on issues such as Israel and fracking -- and by making joint media appearances with Liz Cheney (R-WY) and others. This group includes millions of what were called "Double-Haters" in the Trump-Biden race -- the Democrats' goal is that they say "Kamala is acceptable because she'll support democracy even though I disagree with her on most other issues."
  • Each of the above strategies seems likely to gain millions of votes, and we predict that will make a decisive difference in several swing states, where both Harris and Walz have focused their attention.
The Trump/Vance campaign has focused on turnout from their core supporters; maximizing their popular vote; and preparing for the "judicial vote" after November 5:
  • Trump and Vance have emphasized pro-isolationist and anti-immigrant policies in all campaign appearances -- those are popular stances among MAGA groups, and generally have majority support in all but the most liberal "blue" states. This contrasts the Harris/Walz strategy of emphasizing moderate stances. Keeping MAGA supporters involved doesn't add to votes (because they would have voted Republican anyway) but does prepare for thousands of supporters to show up for post-election events such as the January 6, 2025 certification count.
  • Trump has made numerous campaign appearances in New York and California and other "blue states." Why Trump follows this counter-intuitive strategy is obvious from his statements following the 2020 election: Trump noted repeatedly that he got more popular votes (74 million) than any other sitting president -- and challenged many of Biden's 81 million votes. Trump's strategy in 2024 is to reduce the popular vote loss from the 2020 difference of 7 million -- so that he can claim he did better than in 2020, and therefore his supporters should push for a "judicial vote" in his favor.
  • The Trump/Vance campaign has invested heavily in preparatory lawsuits on every aspect of voting in every swing state -- and more lawsuits can be expected after November 5. The goal is to apply "lessons learned" from 2021, and question enough swing state certifications so that the Electoral College certification on Jan. 6 2025 goes to a House vote. Trump/Vance will certainly win a House vote because each state gets an equal number of votes, and the majority of states are Republican.
  • Even if our electoral vote prediction is accurate, Trump could be elected President by successfully questioning the Electoral certification in enough states to overcome Trump's electoral vote deficit. All of the above strategies focus on Trump/Vance winning the "judicial vote" and the outcome of dozens of lawsuits is so dependent on judges' whims that the outcome cannot be predicted.

Source: Graphic created on 270ToWin.com.


Vice Presidential debate: October 1st, 2024

Governor Tim Walz (MN, Democratic nominee) vs. Senator J.D. Vance (OH, Republican nominee).

Debate hosted by CBS News in New York City

Source: See additional V.P. debate coverage.


Presidential Debate: September 10th, 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris, Democratic nominee, vs. Former President Donald Trump, Republican nominee

Debate hosted by ABC News in Philadelphia

Source: See additional Presidential debate coverage.


Democratic National Convention: Aug. 19-22, 2024

Sen. Kamala Harris nominated for President; Gov. Tim Walz nominated for Vice President

Source: See additional DNC coverage.


Vice Presidential Books and Events: July 15th, 2024

Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) nominated as Trump's V.P.

<
Books and events with J.D. Vance:Books and events with Kamala Harris:
Source: See additional coverage of Vice Presidential nominee J.D. Vance.


Biden and Trump Books and Events: July 4th, 2024

Book excerpts, book reviews, and event excerpts

Books by and about Biden:Books by and about Trump:

Source: Project 2025 policy excerpts


Governor primaries: March 5 - Sept. 10, 2024

Coverage of each governor's race in 11 states

Gubernatorial primary date indicated for each state. Click on the state abbreviations for excerpts from gubernatorial primary debates, or click on a candidate name for all excerpts for that candidate:

We'll update with the results of each primary by indicating "nominee" for the winners.

Source: VoteMatch Quiz for all Gubernatorial primaries


Senate primaries: March 5 - Sept. 10, 2024

Coverage of 35 Senate primaries in 33 states

Senate primary date indicated for each state. Click on the state abbreviations for excerpts from Senate primary debates, or click on a candidate name for all excerpts for that candidate:

We'll update with the results of each primary by indicating "nominee" for the winners.

Source: VoteMatch Quiz for all Senatorial primaries


State of the States: Jan. 3 - April 10, 2024

Coverage of each governor's State of the State Address

Democratic GovernorsRepublican Governors

Source: State of the State speeches for all governors


State of the Union: March 7, 2024

Annual Presidential message to a Joint Session of Congress

Source: See additional 2024 SOTU coverage.


Super Tuesday: March 5, 2024

Trump and Biden challengers all withdraw

    We list below the delegate counts before and after Super Tuesday voting.
  • After Super Tuesday, Nikki Haley withdrew, but will have 85 bound delegates at the Republican National Convention.
  • Trump comes out Super Tuesday with 905 bound delegates out of 1,215 needed for the nomination.
  • Pres. Biden will have no challengers in the remaining primaries, but a surprise candidate gained some delegates in the American Samoa primary.
  • Biden comes out Super Tuesday with 1,573 bound delegates out of 1,968 needed for the nomination.
Primary or caucusDonald TrumpNikki HaleyUncommittedJoe BidenJason PalmerUncommitted
Before Super Tuesday:20745122410100
AK-caucus290
AL5005207
AR3913105
CA1690424070
CO221172015
IA4006
MA40092024
ME2002408
MN271260033
NC5810116017
OK4303605
TN5806307
TX104057220053
VA39699020
AS-caucus008335
After Super Tuesday:90585771,5733375

    Source: The Green Papers for delegate counts


    Michigan & more early Primaries: Feb. 8-March 3, 2024

    Trump and Biden down to one challenger each

      We list below the delegate counts for the early primaries and caucuses -- because the delegate counts are all that matter!
    • Marianne Williamson withdrew after the Michigan primary, leaving Joe Biden with only Rep. Dean Phillips as a challenger. [But she "unsuspended" her campaign for Super Tuesday!]
    • Vivek Ramaswamy and Gov. Ron DeSantis withdrew and endorsed Donald Trump, leaving only Gov. Nikki Haley as a challenger.
    DatePrimary or caucusDonald TrumpNikki HaleyUncommittedJoe BidenDean PhillipsUncommitted
    Before Feb. 8IA/NH/SC/NV32191291013
    Feb. 8NV-caucus26036013
    Feb. 8VI40
    Feb. 24SC473
    Feb. 27MI-primary124114024
    March 2MI-caucus540
    March 2DC019
    March 3ID-caucus32050
    TotalBound Delegate Count:2074512241100
    • "Uncommitted" means "delegates who will attend the national convention but are not bound to one candidate"
    • Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis gained some bound delegates before withdrawing, but we count those as "uncommitted".
    • Democratic uncommitted candidates: "superdelegates" or "PLEOs" (party leadership and elected officials)
    • Republican uncommitted delegates are fewer than Dems', and their convention is smaller too:
    • The Republican number of delegates to clinch the nomination = 1,215
    • The Democratic number of delegates to clinch the nomination = 1,968

    Source: The Green Papers for delegate counts


    South Carolina & Nevada Democratic Primaries: Feb. 3-6, 2024

    South Carolina Republican Primary coming on Feb. 28; Nevada Republican caucus coming on Feb. 8

      President Biden won his first REAL primary -- because the N.H. primary awarded no delegates, but the South Carolina and Nevada primaries do. The reason for Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson to continue their campaigns is to gain some delegates so they have a voice at the summer convention. That didn't happen in the SC or NV primary (but it DID happen for Nikki Haley in New Hampshire, and she'll keep gaining delegates as long as she stays in the race).
      CANDIDATE S.C. VOTES S.C. PERCENT S.C. DELEGATES Nev. VOTES Nev. PERCENT Nev. DELEGATES
      Pres.Joe Biden 126,321 votes 96.2% 55 delegates 98,358 votes 89.3% 36 delegates
      Rep. Dean Phillips 2,726 votes 2.1% 0 delegates 3,173 votes 2.9% 0 delegates
      Marianne Williamson 2,239 votes 1.7% 0 delegates (not on ballot) 0 delegates

      The Republicans DID hold a primary in Nevada but it was a "beauty contest" where no delegates were awarded; the delegates will be awarded at a caucus on Feb. 8.

    Source: See additional Marianne Williamson issue stances.


    2024 N.H. primary: Jan. 23rd, 2024

    Trump and Biden win New Hampshire Primary

    The results are in for the NH Primaries (and the Iowa caucuses). First we report the delegate counts -- the only number that REALLY matters:

    Bound Delegates IA NH Total
    Donald Trump 20 12 32
    Nikki Haley 8 9 17
    Ron DeSantis 9 0 9
    Vivek Ramaswamy 3 0 3
    Total needed for nomination: 1,215
    Donald Trump won both IA and NH, but these are both small contests in terms of delegates, and the runners-up do get delegates awarded too. When Nikki Haley says she'll "stay in the race," she means she'll seek more delegates in her home state of South Carolina (Feb. 24) and on "Super Tuesday" (multiple states on March 5).

    By staying in the race, Haley will gain hundreds of delegates, who are "bound" to vote for her in the first nominating round at the Republican Convention on July 15. Trump's delegates are bound for Trump too -- but delegates are not bound on the second round of voting. By July, Trump may face felony convictions, and some delegates may seek a second round. The pundits ask, "What is Haley's path to the nomination?" -- that is ONE path, however unlikely!

    What about the actual vote counts?

    Candidate IA NH
    Pres.Donald Trump 56,260 163,700
    Gov.Nikki Haley 21,085 129,646
    Gov.Ron DeSantis 23,420 2,046
    CEO Vivek Ramaswamy 8,449 709
    Gov.Chris Christie 35 1,310
    Gov.Asa Hutchinson 191 15
    V.P.Mike Pence -- 357
    Sen.Tim Scott --166
    Total 103,037 297,949
    While the pundits ooze breathlessly about the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire, keep in mind that they represent only a tiny fraction of the voting population. Both are small states, and much less racially diverse than the rest of the country -- and even within their small, mostly-white populations, few people actually turn out to vote. In Iowa, only about 15% of registered Republicans voted in the caucuses (just over 100,000 people out of a population of 3.2 million). In New Hampshire, about 300,000 voted out of a population of 1.4 million (which might make 40% of registered voters). That means about 400,000 people have voted in Republican primaries -- compared to 36 million in 2020 -- there's a long way to go!

    What about the Democrats?

    N.H.CANDIDATE VOTES PERCENT
    Pres.Joe Biden write-in 79,455 63.9%
    Rep. Dean Phillips 24,335 19.6%
    Marianne Williamson 5,006 4.0%
    Derek Nadeau 1,612 1.3%
    The New Hampshire Democrats did hold a primary, but did not elect any delegates (because they broke the Democratic Party rules about voting too early). Also, Joe Biden's name was not printed on the ballot (because he wanted to respect the Democratic Party rules) and all of his votes were "write-in" votes. But Biden won the popular vote handily anyway (with lower turnout than the Republican primary). The Iowa Democrats' "presidential preference" caucus will be finalized on March 5.

      Sources:
    • CBS News, "How many delegates does New Hampshire have for the 2024 primary and how are they awarded?", by Kathryn Watson, (Link)
    • New York Post, "New Hampshire primary live updates: Trump celebrates third NH primary win, mocks 'imposter' Haley for loss," by Diana Glebova , Ryan King , Steven Nelson , Samuel Chamberlain and Kaydi Pelletier, (Link)
    • CBS News, "Iowa caucus turnout for 2024 and how it compares to previous years," by Kaia Hubbard, January 16, 2024, (Link)
    • New York Times, "New Hampshire's G.O.P. Primary Sets a State Turnout Record," by Nick Corasaniti, (Link)
    • Ballotpedia vote counts for Iowa and New Hampshire, all of the above downloaded 1/24/24 unless otherwise dated.

    Source: See additional excerpts from the pre-Iowa caucuses (the pre-NH primary debates got cancelled!).


    Fifth GOP Presidential debate: Jan. 10th, 2024

    2 contenders in Iowa

      CNN established these qualifications for the 5th debate:
    1. Participants must have 10% of the vote in multiple polls (an increase from 6% in the 4th debate)
    2. Trump did qualify for this criterion, but Trump counter-programmed directly against this debate (which we excerpt).
    3. We also excerpt two Town Halls for the two main candidates, eaerlier in the week.
    4. The Iowa caucus takes place on Jan. 15th.
    Source: See additional excerpts from the pre-Iowa caucuses.


    2024 Presidential shake-out: December 21, 2023

    25 days until Iowa caucus

    The field of candidates is now set for the start of the primary season. Who's in as the vote-counting starts, and who's out?

    For the upcoming Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, there are 5 candidates remainging running in the Republican primary, and 3 candidates running in the Democratic primary.

    Source: Try our VoteMatch quiz today - now including Dr. Jill Stein and Rep. Dean Phillips.


    Fourth GOP Presidential debate: Dec. 6, 2023

    4 contenders in Tuscaloosa

      The Republican National Committee established these qualifications for the 4th debate:
    1. Participants must have 6% of the vote in multiple polls (an increase from 4% in the 3rd debate)
    2. Participants must have 80,000 unique donors (an increase from 70,000 donors in the 3rd debate)
    3. Participants must sign a pledge to support the party's eventual 2024 nominee (Trump does not qualify for this criteria, but Trump was invited anyway. Trump did not counter-program against this debate).
    • NewsNation Republican Primary Debate in Tuscaloosa (University of Alabama)
    • Moderated by Megyn Kelly of SiriusXM; Elizabeth Vargas of NewsNation; and Eliana Johnson of Washington Free Beacon
    • The fourth and final Republican Presidential Primary Debate of 2023, from the University of Alabama; broadcast on News Nation and the CW.
    Source: See additional excerpts from the NewsNation GOP debate.


    2024 Gubernatorial primaries: Nov. 26th, 2023

    Candidates for Governor in 13 states

    The 2023 Governor races are all decided now, so we begin our coverage of the 2024 Governor races in thirteen states. Click on the state name below to see our coverage of the primary races, or click on each candidate's name to see their VoteMatch responses.

    Source: Try our VoteMatch quiz today - where all of the gathered excerpts match YOUR issue stances.


    Third GOP Presidential debate: Nov. 8, 2023

    5 contenders in Miami

      The Republican National Committee established these qualifications for the 3rd debate:
    1. Participants must have 4% of the vote in multiple polls (an increase from 3% in the 2nd debate)
    2. Participants must have 70,000 unique donors (an increase from 50,000 donors in the 2nd debate)
    3. Participants must sign a pledge to support the party's eventual 2024 nominee.

    • Senator Tim Scott participated in this debate but withdrew from the presidential race shortly afterwards.
    • Former Vice President Mike Pence withdrew from the presidential race shortly before this debate.
    • Former President Donald Trump counter-programmed against this debate, as in the first two debates.
    Source: See additional excerpts from the NBC News GOP debate.


2023 Gubernatorial elections: Nov. 7th, 2023

Governors elected in Lousiana and Mississippi

Two Gubernatorial races -- MS and KY -- were decided on November 7. Our VoteMatch quiz covers all three 2023 governor's races (pick KY, LA, or MS under "2022 Gubernatorial races").

Kentucky Gubernatorial Race Mississippi Gubernatorial Race

Source: Try our VoteMatch quiz today - where all of the gathered excerpts match YOUR issue stances.


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