President Trump likes to refer to Canada as "the 51st state." What would Canada joining the Union actually do to American politics? Answer: The Democrats would immediately take control of the House of Representatives, and would be guaranteed the House majority and Speakership until 2032, and probably afterwards too. How come? Well, it's all in the Constitution and U.S. legal history....
Canada's population is just over 40 million, about the same as California's, which entitles Canada to 52 Representatives, the same as California. The number of seats in the House, currently 435, would temporarily increase to 487. The increase would stick until the 2030 decennial census; the 2032 election would reapportion all House seats nationwide, to reduce Canada's seats, and California's seats, to about 46 each, while reducing the number of House seats in dozens of other states.
Seizing the House majority assumes that the majority of Canada's Representatives would join the Democratic caucus. That assumption comes from the makeup of Canada's current House of Commons, which has 126 conservative members and 212 liberal members. Splitting Canada's 52 U.S. House seats in that same ratio means 19 would caucus with the House Republicans, and 33 would caucus with the House Democrats.
The current partisan split in the 435-seat U.S. House is 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats . With the Canadian addition, the 487-seat U.S. House would have 239 Republicans and 248 Democrats. That flips a 5-seat Republican majority to a 9-seat Democratic majority. That sort of systemic majority would be hard to overcome in the elections of 2026, 2028, or 2030.
A Democratic majority in the House means the current Speaker, Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) would be replaced by Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), the current Minority Leader. And all Committee chairs -- currently all Republicans -- would be replaced by Democratic Committee chairs. Those chairs set the agenda in each Committee, and hence decide which bills get heard or not. President Trump's agenda needs the House to introduce and hear bills -- Democrats would then have a powerful blocking mechanism.
Why do we say "Democrats would IMMEDIATELY take control"? Because there would be 52 special elections, in each district of the new state of Canada. After special elections, the winner is seated immediately -- there's no delay until the next January. Each winner would be up for re-election in November 2026, but they would be full members of Congress in the intervening time. Canadians have a strong incentive to hold the 52 special elections as soon as possible after Canada is declared a state -- something like a one-month campaign -- certainly NOT a long delay until 2026.
You can look to history to see how this occurred the last time new states were admitted to the Union -- that's Alaska and Hawaii in 1959. Alaska was admitted to the Union on Jan. 3, 1959, and its first Representative, Ralph Rivers (D-AK), was elected that same day. Hawaii was admitted to the Union on Aug. 21, 1959, and its first Representative, Daniel Inouye (D-HI), was elected that same day. Those Representatives were both re-elected in the November 1960 general election, the only U.S. House election in history to elect 437 members. In 1962, reapportionment from the 1960 census took effect, and the number of Representatives was reduced back to 435, where it has held since.
Astute observers might look at the physical size of the Congressional office buildings, where each of the 535 members of the House and Senate have office space. A sudden increase to 589 members suggests that the campaign slogan of the new Canadian members of Congress might be, "Where would we all sit, eh?"
State of the State Speeches: January - February 2025
Excerpts from Governor's late State of the State addresses
Governors' State of the State addresses take place mostly in January through March.
Here, we highlight differences between the "left" and "right" stances on key issues -- with Democrat-vs-Republican indicated whether they're on the left or the right....
119th Congress sworn in: Republicans: Jan. 3rd, 2025
Issue coverage of all new Republican members of U.S. House
The Speaker of the House is the first vote after being sworn in; Mike Johnson (R-LA) was re-elected.
The Republicans won the Speakership vote because the Republicans hold a 220-215 majority in the House of Representatives (and almost all vote along party lines for Speaker).
There are 37 new Democratic members of Congress, and 35 new Republican members of Congress -- in other words, the Democrats gained a couple of seats compared to the 118th Congress.
The Republicans had a majority of Congressional seats larger than the Democratic gains, so the Republicans kept their House majority.
The Republicans also hold a narrow Senate majority of 53-47, having gained net seats in the November 2024 election.
That's called a "trifecta": Republicans hold a majority in both chambers of Congress, plus the presidency.
The majority in each chamber of Congress determine Committee chairs, who then control the agenda of which bills get voted upon.
119th Congress sworn in: Democrats: Jan. 3rd, 2025
Issue coverage of all new Democratic members of U.S. House
Following are all of the new Democratic members of the House of Representatives (Republicans in a separate list).
The Congress convening for the two-year term from Jan. 3, 2025, through Jan. 3, 2027, is known as the 119th Congress.
"New member" means the member was not sworn in for the 118th Congress in January 2023.
Some new members, marked "SPEL" for Special Election, did serve in the 118th Cnogress, but for a partial term.
There will be several special elections in early 2025, for any member who resigns -- that applies to several House members who are nominated to serve in Trump's incoming Cabinet (the list appears below; see Nov. 13).
When members of the House resign, the Governor of their state determines the timing of the special election (within a few months).
When members of the Senate resign, the Governor of their state appoints a replacement to serve in the 119th Congress -- then a special election in November 2026 takes place for the remainder of the 6-year Senate term.
Special elections also apply if a member of Congress resigns for any other reason -- which applies to Matt Gaetz (R-FL-4).
Rep. Gaetz resigned from the 118th Congress in December 2024 when Trump nominated him for Attorney General, but Gaetz withdrew under Congressional investigation.
Rep. Gaetz was sworn in to the 119th Congress on January 3, because he was re-elected in November 2024 -- but plans to resign from the 119th Congress also.
OnTheissues will track all of the coming special elections, and Senate appointments, for early 2025, and throughout the 119th Congress.
Assad regime overthrown in major blow to Iran and Russia
Where do the candidates stand on Syria? The rebellion wasn't part of the 2024 election campaign, but many candidates and incoming Trump Administration officials have offered opinions over the many years of the Syrian Civil War. First some background (with links for more details) then the candidates' views:
Bashar al-Assad: The President of Syria fled the country on Dec. 8, 2024, when rebels took the capital, Damascus. Assad was in power since 2000, when his father died.
Syrian Civil War: The Assad regime almost fell in 2014, after three years of civil war. Russia and Iran came to Assad's aid, and have been aiding the Syrian regime ever since. But Russia was busy with the Ukraine war and could not aid Assad in 2024.
Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): The lead rebel group is called HTS, which means "Organization for the Liberation of the Levant." HTS was originally an offshoot of Al Qaeda.
Kurdish and Turkish rebel groups: HTS initiated the 2024 rebellion, but were joined by several other rebel groups. The largest are the Kurds in the east (on the Syria-Iraq border) and Turkish-supported rebels in the north (on the Syria-Turkey border).
Al-Tanf United States military base:: U.S. troops have been in Syria since 2016; we invaded Syria as part of the Iraq-ISIS-Caliphate war. The U.S. has bombed ISIS sites in Syria, since 2023 and currently continuing. U.S. troops did not otherwise participate in the 2024 rebellion, and President-elect Trump has indicated he wants to keep it that way.
We predict Kamala Harris will win the Electoral Vote 275-263, but Trump may win the "Judicial Vote"
We predict a victory for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in both the popular vote and the electoral vote. But we make no prediction about the actual outcome of the presidential election, because that will be up to the "judicial vote," which has been the most relevant factor in the presidential election since "Bush v. Gore" in 2000. We base this prediction on the actions of the Harris/Walz campaign (which has focused on winning the electoral vote) compared to the actions of the Trump/Vance campaign (which has focused on minimizing their popular vote loss, and on winning the judicial vote)....
The Harris/Walz campaign has focused on winning the electoral vote by reaching out beyond voters who are already likely to vote Democratic on Nov. 5:
Kamala has appeared on numerous podcasts that reach young voters, and other groups who have traditionally low voter turnout rates. The Democrats are counting on young voters preferring Democrats, or at least preferring the candidate who has reached out to them.
The Harris/Walz campaign has reached out to minority voters, through proxies such as Barack Obama. Minority voters -- especially immigrants -- have been targeted by Republican "voter suppression" efforts, and the Democratic campaign strategy is to overwhelm those with voter volume.
Kamala has reached out to Republican "Never-Trumpers" extensively -- by emphasizing moderate stances on issues such as Israel and fracking -- and by making joint media appearances with Liz Cheney (R-WY) and others. This group includes millions of what were called "Double-Haters" in the Trump-Biden race -- the Democrats' goal is that they say "Kamala is acceptable because she'll support democracy even though I disagree with her on most other issues."
Each of the above strategies seems likely to gain millions of votes, and we predict that will make a decisive difference in several swing states, where both Harris and Walz have focused their attention.
The Trump/Vance campaign has focused on turnout from their core supporters; maximizing their popular vote; and preparing for the "judicial vote" after November 5:
Trump and Vance have emphasized pro-isolationist and anti-immigrant policies in all campaign appearances -- those are popular stances among MAGA groups, and generally have majority support in all but the most liberal "blue" states. This contrasts the Harris/Walz strategy of emphasizing moderate stances. Keeping MAGA supporters involved doesn't add to votes (because they would have voted Republican anyway) but does prepare for thousands of supporters to show up for post-election events such as the January 6, 2025 certification count.
Trump has made numerous campaign appearances in New York and California and other "blue states." Why Trump follows this counter-intuitive strategy is obvious from his statements following the 2020 election: Trump noted repeatedly that he got more popular votes (74 million) than any other sitting president -- and challenged many of Biden's 81 million votes. Trump's strategy in 2024 is to reduce the popular vote loss from the 2020 difference of 7 million -- so that he can claim he did better than in 2020, and therefore his supporters should push for a "judicial vote" in his favor.
The Trump/Vance campaign has invested heavily in preparatory lawsuits on every aspect of voting in every swing state -- and more lawsuits can be expected after November 5. The goal is to apply "lessons learned" from 2021, and question enough swing state certifications so that the Electoral College certification on Jan. 6 2025 goes to a House vote. Trump/Vance will certainly win a House vote because each state gets an equal number of votes, and the majority of states are Republican.
Even if our electoral vote prediction is accurate, Trump could be elected President by successfully questioning the Electoral certification in enough states to overcome Trump's electoral vote deficit. All of the above strategies focus on Trump/Vance winning the "judicial vote" and the outcome of dozens of lawsuits is so dependent on judges' whims that the outcome cannot be predicted.
Gubernatorial primary date indicated for each state. Click on the state abbreviations for excerpts from gubernatorial primary debates, or click on a candidate name for all excerpts for that candidate:
Senate primary date indicated for each state. Click on the state abbreviations for excerpts from Senate primary debates, or click on a candidate name for all excerpts for that candidate:
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