We predict Kamala Harris will win the Electoral Vote 275-263, but Trump may win the "Judicial Vote"
We predict a victory for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in both the popular vote and the electoral vote. But we make no prediction about the actual outcome of the presidential election, because that will be up to the "judicial vote," which has been the most relevant factor in the presidential election since "Bush v. Gore" in 2000. We base this prediction on the actions of the Harris/Walz campaign (which has focused on winning the electoral vote) compared to the actions of the Trump/Vance campaign (which has focused on minimizing their popular vote loss, and on winning the judicial vote)....
The Harris/Walz campaign has focused on winning the electoral vote by reaching out beyond voters who are already likely to vote Democratic on Nov. 5:
Kamala has appeared on numerous podcasts that reach young voters, and other groups who have traditionally low voter turnout rates. The Democrats are counting on young voters preferring Democrats, or at least preferring the candidate who has reached out to them.
The Harris/Walz campaign has reached out to minority voters, through proxies such as Barack Obama. Minority voters -- especially immigrants -- have been targeted by Republican "voter suppression" efforts, and the Democratic campaign strategy is to overwhelm those with voter volume.
Kamala has reached out to Republican "Never-Trumpers" extensively -- by emphasizing moderate stances on issues such as Israel and fracking -- and by making joint media appearances with Liz Cheney (R-WY) and others. This group includes millions of what were called "Double-Haters" in the Trump-Biden race -- the Democrats' goal is that they say "Kamala is acceptable because she'll support democracy even though I disagree with her on most other issues."
Each of the above strategies seems likely to gain millions of votes, and we predict that will make a decisive difference in several swing states, where both Harris and Walz have focused their attention.
The Trump/Vance campaign has focused on turnout from their core supporters; maximizing their popular vote; and preparing for the "judicial vote" after November 5:
Trump and Vance have emphasized pro-isolationist and anti-immigrant policies in all campaign appearances -- those are popular stances among MAGA groups, and generally have majority support in all but the most liberal "blue" states. This contrasts the Harris/Walz strategy of emphasizing moderate stances. Keeping MAGA supporters involved doesn't add to votes (because they would have voted Republican anyway) but does prepare for thousands of supporters to show up for post-election events such as the January 6, 2025 certification count.
Trump has made numerous campaign appearances in New York and California and other "blue states." Why Trump follows this counter-intuitive strategy is obvious from his statements following the 2020 election: Trump noted repeatedly that he got more popular votes (74 million) than any other sitting president -- and challenged many of Biden's 81 million votes. Trump's strategy in 2024 is to reduce the popular vote loss from the 2020 difference of 7 million -- so that he can claim he did better than in 2020, and therefore his supporters should push for a "judicial vote" in his favor.
The Trump/Vance campaign has invested heavily in preparatory lawsuits on every aspect of voting in every swing state -- and more lawsuits can be expected after November 5. The goal is to apply "lessons learned" from 2021, and question enough swing state certifications so that the Electoral College certification on Jan. 6 2025 goes to a House vote. Trump/Vance will certainly win a House vote because each state gets an equal number of votes, and the majority of states are Republican.
Even if our electoral vote prediction is accurate, Trump could be elected President by successfully questioning the Electoral certification in enough states to overcome Trump's electoral vote deficit. All of the above strategies focus on Trump/Vance winning the "judicial vote" and the outcome of dozens of lawsuits is so dependent on judges' whims that the outcome cannot be predicted.
Gubernatorial primary date indicated for each state. Click on the state abbreviations for excerpts from gubernatorial primary debates, or click on a candidate name for all excerpts for that candidate:
Senate primary date indicated for each state. Click on the state abbreviations for excerpts from Senate primary debates, or click on a candidate name for all excerpts for that candidate:
Michigan & more early Primaries: Feb. 8-March 3, 2024
Trump and Biden down to one challenger each
We list below the delegate counts for the early primaries and caucuses -- because the delegate counts are all that matter!
Marianne Williamson withdrew after the Michigan primary, leaving Joe Biden with only Rep. Dean Phillips as a challenger. [But she "unsuspended" her campaign for Super Tuesday!]
Vivek Ramaswamy and Gov. Ron DeSantis withdrew and endorsed Donald Trump, leaving only Gov. Nikki Haley as a challenger.
South Carolina & Nevada Democratic Primaries: Feb. 3-6, 2024
South Carolina Republican Primary coming on Feb. 28; Nevada Republican caucus coming on Feb. 8
President Biden won his first REAL primary -- because the N.H. primary awarded no delegates, but the South Carolina and Nevada primaries do. The reason for Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson to continue their campaigns is to gain some delegates so they have a voice at the summer convention. That didn't happen in the SC or NV primary (but it DID happen for Nikki Haley in New Hampshire, and she'll keep gaining delegates as long as she stays in the race).
The Republicans DID hold a primary in Nevada but it was a "beauty contest" where no delegates were awarded; the delegates will be awarded at a caucus on Feb. 8.
The results are in for the NH Primaries (and the Iowa caucuses).
First we report the delegate counts -- the only number that REALLY matters:
Bound Delegates
IA
NH
Total
Donald Trump
20
12
32
Nikki Haley
8
9
17
Ron DeSantis
9
0
9
Vivek Ramaswamy
3
0
3
Total needed for nomination:
1,215
Donald Trump won both IA and NH, but these are both small contests in terms of delegates, and the runners-up do get delegates awarded too. When Nikki Haley says she'll "stay in the race," she means she'll seek more delegates in her home state of South Carolina (Feb. 24) and on "Super Tuesday" (multiple states on March 5).
By staying in the race, Haley will gain hundreds of delegates, who are "bound" to vote for her in the first nominating round at the Republican Convention on July 15. Trump's delegates are bound for Trump too -- but delegates are not bound on the second round of voting. By July, Trump may face felony convictions, and some delegates may seek a second round. The pundits ask, "What is Haley's path to the nomination?" -- that is ONE path, however unlikely!
While the pundits ooze breathlessly about the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire, keep in mind that they represent only a tiny fraction of the voting population. Both are small states, and much less racially diverse than the rest of the country -- and even within their small, mostly-white populations, few people actually turn out to vote. In Iowa, only about 15% of registered Republicans voted in the caucuses (just over 100,000 people out of a population of 3.2 million). In New Hampshire, about 300,000 voted out of a population of 1.4 million (which might make 40% of registered voters). That means about 400,000 people have voted in Republican primaries -- compared to 36 million in 2020 -- there's a long way to go!
The New Hampshire Democrats did hold a primary, but did not elect any delegates (because they broke the Democratic Party rules about voting too early). Also, Joe Biden's name was not printed on the ballot (because he wanted to respect the Democratic Party rules) and all of his votes were "write-in" votes. But Biden won the popular vote handily anyway (with lower turnout than the Republican primary). The Iowa Democrats' "presidential preference" caucus will be finalized on March 5.
Sources:
CBS News, "How many delegates does New Hampshire have for the 2024 primary and how are they awarded?", by Kathryn Watson, (Link)
New York Post, "New Hampshire primary live updates: Trump celebrates third NH primary win, mocks 'imposter' Haley for loss," by Diana Glebova , Ryan King , Steven Nelson , Samuel Chamberlain and Kaydi Pelletier, (Link)
CBS News, "Iowa caucus turnout for 2024 and how it compares to previous years," by Kaia Hubbard, January 16, 2024, (Link)
New York Times, "New Hampshire's G.O.P. Primary Sets a State Turnout Record," by Nick Corasaniti, (Link)
Ballotpedia vote counts for Iowa and New Hampshire, all of the above downloaded 1/24/24 unless otherwise dated.
Oct. 6: Mayor Steve Laffey: Switched from Republican to Independent, and withdrew
For the upcoming Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, there are 5 candidates remainging running in the Republican primary, and 3 candidates running in the Democratic primary.
Source: Try our VoteMatch quiz today - now including Dr. Jill Stein and Rep. Dean Phillips.
Fourth GOP Presidential debate: Dec. 6, 2023
4 contenders in Tuscaloosa
The Republican National Committee established these qualifications for the 4th debate:
Participants must have 6% of the vote in multiple polls (an increase from 4% in the 3rd debate)
Participants must have 80,000 unique donors (an increase from 70,000 donors in the 3rd debate)
Participants must sign a pledge to support the party's eventual 2024 nominee (Trump does not qualify for this criteria, but Trump was invited anyway. Trump did not counter-program against this debate).
NewsNation Republican Primary Debate in Tuscaloosa (University of Alabama)
Moderated by Megyn Kelly of SiriusXM; Elizabeth Vargas of NewsNation; and Eliana Johnson of Washington Free Beacon
The fourth and final Republican Presidential Primary Debate of 2023, from the University of Alabama; broadcast on News Nation and the CW.
The 2023 Governor races are all decided now, so we begin our coverage of the 2024 Governor races in thirteen states.
Click on the state name below to see our coverage of the primary races,
or click on each candidate's name to see their VoteMatch responses.
Two Gubernatorial races -- MS and KY -- were decided on November 7.
Our VoteMatch quiz covers all three 2023 governor's races (pick KY, LA, or MS under "2022 Gubernatorial races").
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