American Dynasty
Aristocracy, Fortune, and the Politics of Deceit in the House of Bush
by Kevin Phillips


(Click for Amazon book review)

BOOK REVIEW by OnTheIssues.org:

Jeb Bush inherits the Bush dynasty in 2016, while Hillary Clinton similarly inherits the Clinton dynasty -- that is the theme and focus of this book. As its title indicates, it is anti-Bush -- George Sr. and George Jr. adorn the cover from 2003, but for 2016, the real lessons apply to Jeb. Those lessons apply to Hillary, too, and the author takes pains to point out that the issue is bipartisan: "The current evidence that dynasticism is likewise affecting the Democratic Party, through the appeal of Senator Hillary Clinton, supports the notion that great-family politics is still unfolding, not retreating, in the United States. [Regarding] a match between Floridian Jeb Bush and Senator Clinton… the founding father would cringe, to be sure, but portions of the national psyche have seemed accepting" (p. 322 -- sorry, the author writes like that! He means, "Voters in both parties like political families.")

The author makes the case that the American electorate supports political dynasties -- even though the connotation is negative, voters DO vote for wives, sons, nephews, and other inheritors from dynastic founders. The author investigates the problems inherent with that system, making the analogy to royalty: "Were Hillary Clinton to achieve a second restoration [like the restoration of the Bush dynasty in 2000], this one Clintonian, public perception might well lurch toward some American equivalent of the 15th-century Wars of the Roses, during which the English Crown was contested by the houses of York and Lancaster" (p. 4). That means Jeb and Hillary duke it out in 2016 and 2020, and then it implies that George P. Bush and Chelsea Clinton will wait in the wings for 2024 or 2028. We interpret that as a prediction, although the author meant it more as a warning.

The author additionally cites "10 to 20 minor dynasties" (p. 71, plus p. 5 and p. 117) -- some you've heard of, and some you haven't -- again, mostly as a warning that dynasticism is effective as a means of getting elected, but unhealthy for democracy. His partial list (with two dynastic presidential contenders listed on the top right, in ADDITION to Jeb and Hillary!):

But there is a 3rd benefit, which we'll call "Contacts," which the author does not discuss, but which we see as the most relevant for the lead-up to the 2016 election. By "contacts," we mean people who will endorse the dynast and will vote for the dynast in the presidential nominating convention -- this mechanism is why Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton strongly lead in the likelihood of winning the nomination, even during the political turmoil of summer 2015, when both of them trail in the polls: Jeb currently trails both Donald Trump (R, NYC) and Ben Carson (R, MD), while Hillary trails Bernie Sanders (D, VT). "Trailing in the polls" in August 2015 is irrelevant to the 2016 election -- especially because in the delegate count, Jeb and Hillary are doing extremely well:

How do political dynasties help with superdelegate votes? The superdelegates are loyal party members -- either members of Congress, or members of the party's National Committees, for example -- and they expect a personal request for their vote. For the Democrats, Bill Clinton calls -- and offers to visit -- and asks you to commit to Hillary -- that is VERY persuasive for loyal Democrats! For the Republicans, George Bush Sr. or Barabara Bush call -- for the older superdelegates -- or George W. Bush calls -- for the younger superdelegates -- and asks you to commit to Jeb -- that is VERY persuasive for loyal Republicans! And once they commit -- often publicized by an endorsement press release -- you might think "Well, they could change their mind later" -- no, that doesn't happen. Voting at the conventions is public -- no secret ballots there! -- and party loyalists would be permanently ostracized for breaking their word -- they must ask permission to rescind their endorsement, or get formally "released" if the candidate drops out of the race. Jeb has not been as dominant as Hillary in gaining superdelegate commitments because there are so many candidates -- hence Republicans are waiting to see some drop out before they commit. But Jeb is still winning in the only "poll" that actually counts -- committed delegates -- and Hillary is entirely dominant in that same "poll."

The caucuses and primaries elect the regular delegates to the convention, but their commitments are based on the results of each states' voting in early 2016. The political game there is to get eligible voters to vote on caucus day or primary day. That requires a lot of the same methods as for superdelegates, but not quite as much personal attention because the numbers are greater. But not as much greater as you would think -- the number of attendees at the Iowa caucuses in 2012 was about 8,000 people for the Democrats (Obama ran uncontested), and 120,000 for the Republicans -- that's a lot of people, but not millions!

So what about Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders? Yes, they CAN catch up. But Trump so far has focused only on getting lots of media attention -- he's certainly an expert at that! -- and will need to soon switch his focus to getting superdelegates and delegates. Sanders has been focused on getting large crowds to turn out for campaign events -- but that's only useful if those people will attend caucuses and primaries, and young people (most of Sanders' supporters) overwhelmingly do not. Both Trump and Sanders can still translate their popularity into delegate votes -- keep an eye out that they are doing so by looking for news reports about "Iowa infrastructure", "meetings with party officials in New Hampshire", and less showy things like that.

Overall, this book is lousy reading. The author sounds like a scholar rather than a writer -- by which we mean he doesn't know how to reach normal readers. And he missed the most important scholarly aspect of dynastic politics -- the superdelegates -- and hence loses our confidence as a scholar too. It's an interesting read for those concerned about dynastic politics, but as his own book demonstrates, voters are not nearly as worried about dynasties as is the author.

-- Jesse Gordon, jesse@OnTheIssues.org, August 2015

OnTheIssues.org excerpts:  (click on issues for details)

Foreign Policy     Jeb Bush: Supports increasing aid to Nigeria and developing countries.

Principles & Values     Hillary Clinton: OpEd: Dynasties offer donors, free media, & brand extension.

Click for quotations from other sources by: Hillary Clinton Democratic Presidential candidate Jeb Bush Florida Former FL Governor; Republican Presidential candidate