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State of the Union speech
(Feb. 28, 2017)
Third Presidential debate
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First Presidential debate
(Sept. 26, 2016)
Bernie Sanders vs. Hillary Clinton On the Issues
(paperback Feb. 2016)
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Miami Democratic debate
(March 2016)
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(March 2016)
Republican primary debate in Detroit, Michigan
(March 2016)
CNN-Telemundo Republican debate on eve of Texas primary.
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2016 CNN GOP Town Hall in South Carolina
(Feb. 2016)
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(Feb. 2016)
PBS Democratic Primary Debate in Wisconsin
(Feb. 2016)
2016 ABC News/IJReview Republican Debate in N.H.
(Feb. 2016)
MSNBC Democratic primary debate in New Hampshire
(Feb. 2016)
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(Jan. 2016)
Fox Iowa GOP debate
(Jan. 2016)
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(Jan. 2016)
Fox Business GOP debate
(Jan. 2016)
State of the Union address
(Jan. 2016)
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush On the Issues
(paperback Feb. 2016)

CNN GOP Nevada debate
(Dec. 2015)
Syrian Refugee crisis
(Nov.-Dec. 2015)
CBS Democratic debate
(Nov. 2015)
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(Nov. 2015)
CNBC GOP debate
(Oct. 2015)

CNN Democrat debate
(Oct. 2015)

CNN GOP debate
(Sept. 2015)

Fox/Facebook GOP debate
(August 2015)

Marco Rubio vs. Jeb Bush On the Issues
(paperback June 2015)

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul On the Issues
(paperback May 2015)

Rand Paul vs. Jeb Bush On the Issues
(paperback April 2015)

Jeb vs. Hillary On the Issues
(paperback Feb. 2015)

Rand vs. Ron Paul On the Issues
(Chart April 2015)

Hillary vs. Bill Clinton On the Issues
(Chart Feb. 2015)

Jeb vs. George Bush On the Issues
(Chart March 2015)

Excerpts from "Hard Choices"
(by Hillary Clinton)

Excerpts from "Immigration Wars"
(by Jeb Bush)

Excerpts from "Government Bullies"
(by Rand Paul)

Iowa pre-caucus Summits
(Jan.-March, 2015)

2015 presidential hopeful excerpts

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No Apology
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Promises to Keep
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End the Fed

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Decision Points
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America By Heart
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2017 Election Coverage
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Senate debates (2016 election)
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Gubernatorial debates (2015-2016-2017 elections):
DE  -   IN  -   KY  -   LA  -   MO  -   MS  -   MT  -   NC  -   ND  -   NH  -   NJ  -   OR  -   UT  -   VA  -   VT  -   WA  -   WV  -      

Gubernatorial results in New Jersey and Virginia: Nov. 7, 2017

Democrats win in both governor races of 2017

Only two states elected governors in 2017, VA and NJ; here are the results:

Democratic contendersStatusRepublican contendersStatus
Phil Murphy, bankerWon N.J. governorship, Nov. 2017Kim Guadagno, Lieutenant GovernorLost N.J. general election Nov 7, 2017
John S. Wisniewski, State AssemblymanLost N.J. Dem. primary, June 2017Jack Ciattarelli, State AssemblymanLost N.J. GOP primary, June 2017
  Chris Christie, incumbent N.J. governorRetiring 2018
Ralph Northam, Virginia Governor-electWon VA governorship, Nov. 2017Ed Gillespie, Former RNC ChairLost VA general election Nov 7, 2017
Tom Perriello, former U.S. RepLost VA Dem. primary, June 2017Frank Wagner, VA State SenatorLost VA GOP primary, June 2017
Terry McAuliffe, former DNC chairTerm-limited VA Governor as of Jan. 2018Corey Stewart, County SupervisorLost VA GOP primary, June 2017
(Click on the links above to see the issue stances of the winners and losers of the VA primary)

Source: Excerpts from 2017 NJ governor debates and NJ gubernatorial race in 50-state context.

Alabama Senate primary & runoff: August 15 & September 26, 2017

Incumbent Luther Strange defeated

  • Nov. 18, 2016: Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions appointed as United States Attorney General
  • Feb. 9, 2017: Luther Strange appointed as interim Senator
  • Aug. 15, 2017: Roy Moore places first in Republican primary
  • Sept. 26, 2017: Roy Moore wins Republican runoff
  • Dec. 12, 2017: Roy Moore (R) faces Doug Jones (D) in general election

Source: Ballotpedia Special elections 2017
For more: excerpts from 2017 Alabama special election.

Gubernatorial primary in Virginia: June 13, 2017

Head-to-head race defined for November 2017

OnTheIssues covers the major candidates in the Virginia gubernatorial race; the election will take place on Nov. 7, 2017 (only two states will elect governors in 2017: VA and NJ):

Democratic contendersStatusRepublican contendersStatus
Ralph Northam, Lieutenant GovernorWon Dem. primary, June 2017Ed Gillespie, Former RNC ChairWon GOP primary, June 2017
Tom Perriello, former U.S. RepLost Dem. primary, June 2017Frank Wagner, State SenatorLost GOP primary, June 2017
Terry McAuliffe, former DNC chairTerm-limited as of Jan. 2018Corey Stewart, County SupervisorLost GOP primary, June 2017
Gerry Connolly, U.S. RepDeclined Dem. primary, Dec. 2015Rob Wittman, U.S. RepWithdrew from GOP primary, Dec. 2016
  Ken Cuccinelli, former Attorney General of VirginiaDeclined GOP primary, May 2016
(Click on the links above to see the issue stances of the winners and losers of the VA primary)

Source: Excerpts from 2017 VA governor debates and VA gubernatorial race in 50-state context.

Gubernatorial State of the State speeches: March 4, 2017

Excerpts from each state

OnTheIssues excerpts State of the State speeches for every incumbent govnernor, as they become available. Following is the list completed so far:

    State of the State speech excerpts by Independent Governors:
  • Alaska Bill Walker 1/18/17

Source: OnTheIssues state of state speeches and OnTheIssues gubernatorial coverage.

State of the Union: Feb. 28, 2017

Trump's addrss to joint session of Congress, plus hte Democratic response

    Pres. Trump's first address to a joint session of Congress was popularly called the "State of the Union" address, although that formal speech is not constitutionally required of an incoming president. Some excerpts:
  • Budget & Economy: Restart engine after worst financial recovery in 65 years.
  • Foreign Policy: America is once again ready to lead.
  • Government Reform: For every new regulation, must eliminate two old ones.
  • Health Care: Slash restraints at FDA; get blessed with more miracle drugs.
  • Homeland Security: Cannot allow beachhead of radical Islamic terrorism.
  • War & Peace: ISIS are lawless savages; extinguish them from our planet.
  • Gov. Steve Beshear (Democratic response): Russia is not our friend; don't ignore serious threats.

Source: Transcripts of State of the Union speech
For more: full excerpts of Trump's State of the Union speech, plus the Democratic response.

Gubernatorial appointments: Feb. 9, 2017

Four appointees by four state governors

    As a result of President Trump's cabinet appointments, and one Senate election, several new officeholders have assumed office (listed below). There will also be five special elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, later this spring, to replace additional cabinet appointments (governors don't make House appointments; only Senate and Attorney General appointments like those below).

  • Jan. 14: New Iowa governor Kim Reynolds (R, was Lieutenant Governor)

  • Jan. 24: New California Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D, was U.S. House member; appointed by Governor)

  • Jan. 24: New South Carolina governor Henry McMaster (R, was Lieutenant Governor)

  • Feb. 9: New Alabama Senator Luther Strange (R, was State Attorney General; appointed by Governor)

Source: OnTheIssues archives; see House coverage for additional upcoming special elections.

Cabinet appointee replacements: Jan. 26, 2017

Who will replace Trump's cabinet nominees?

    Following is a list of Cabinet nominees who are also elected officials, and the status of the election to replace them:
  • Alabama Senate special election to replace Sen. Jeff Sessions, appointed as Attorney General, will have his replacement appointed by Gov. Robert Bentley(R), who could also call for a special election. Gov. Bentley is under threat of impeachment from Alabama's Attorney General, Luther Strange, who is also the frontrunner in the special election.
  • Montana House special election to replace Rep. Ryan Zinke, appointed as Secretary of Interior, should have his replacement appointed by Montana Gov. Steve Bullock(D), under a new 2015 law, but the Montana Secretary of State (who would be in charge of a special election) claims that the new law establishing House appointments is unconstitutional. Former gubernatorial candidate Greg Gianforte(R) and Rob Quist (D) have announced their candidacy, among others.
  • Kansas House special election to replace Rep. Mike Pompeo, appointed as CIA Director: Kansas Governor Sam Brownback set April 11 as the date for the special election to replace Rep. Pompeo. Former Rep. Todd Tiahrt(R) and former State Rep. and former Treasurer Dennis McKinney(D) have announced their candidacy, among others.
  • Georgia House special election to replace Rep. Tom Price appointed as Health and Human Services secretary: Georgia Governor Nathan Deal will set the date for the special election to replace Rep. Price. Former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel(R) and Jon Ossoff (D) are likely contenders, among others.
  • South Carolina gubernatorial succession: Gov. Nikki Haley appointed as UN Ambassador: Gov. Haley resigned and Lt. Gov. Henry McMaster became governor. McMaster spoke at the 2016 Republican National Convention, delivering the official nomination speech for Trump.
  • Iowa gubernatorial succession: : Gov. Terry Branstad appointed as Ambassador to China: Gov. Branstad will resign and Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds will become governor.
  • South Carolina House special election to replace Rep. Mick Mulvaney appointed as Budget Director: Gov. Henry McMaster will set the date for the special election to replace Rep. Mulvaney. State Rep. Ralph Norman(R) and State Rep. Tommy Pope (R) are likely contenders, among others.
  • California House special election to replace Rep. Xavier Becerra: (not related to Trump's Cabinet!) California Attorney General Kamala Harris was elected in November to the U.S. Senate; Governor Jerry_Brown then appointed Rep. Becerra to replace Sen. Harris as Attorney General. Gov. Brown then set a date of April 4 for the special election to replace A.G. Becerra, with a runoff date of June 6, if no candidate gets over 50% of the vote.
    Some of those elections above sure look like "the swamp" that Trump pledged to drain!

Source: Numerous news source.
For more: Cabinet Members On the Issues.

First bills of 115th Congress: Jan. 13, 2017

Republicans introduce first set of bills for 2017-2018

  • Congress introduces many bills as soon as Congress convenes (which occured on Jan. 3)
  • Some of those bills are "re-filings" from previous Congresses -- the same purpose, the same text, but it didn't pass last time, so the sponsor is trying again this year.
  • For newly-inaugurated first-time members of Congress, this is the best means to establish their priorities (since they are unlikely, as incoming freshmen, to have written a bill already!)
  • We looked over our collection of "key bills" from previous Congresses, identifying those which have been re-filed, and then added to those any new co-sponsors (with a 2017 date instead of the old date).
  • The list on the left are the bills from previous Congresses, with new incoming freshmen added with 2017 dates.
  • The list on the right are the corresponding bills from the 115th Congress, which we'll check again in a few weeks for more co-sponsors.
  • Most of these bills are Republican-favored bills; the sponsor has re-filed them because they failed while Obama was President, and are now hoping for passage under President Trump.
    Bill from previous Congress, with links to new co-sponsorsBill from 115th Congress, with all current co-sponsors
    No Taxpayer Funding for Abortion Act (2011)Updated to include 2017 version, H.R.7
    Death Tax Repeal Act (2013)Updated to include 2017 version, H.R.198
    Birthright Citizenship Act (2011)Updated to include 2017 version, H.R.140
    Fair Tax Act (2011)Updated to include 2017 version, H.R.25 and S.18
    National Right-to-Carry Reciprocity Act (2009)Updated to include 2017 version, H.R.38
    Balanced Budget Amendment (2011)Updated to include 2017 version, H.J.Res.29
    Deport Convicted Foreign Criminals Act (2011)Updated to include 2017 version, H.R.82
    PRENDA: Prenatal Nondiscrimination Act (2011)Updated to include 2017 version, H.R.147
    Interstate Transportation of Firearms act (2015)Updated to include 2017 version, H.R.358

    • For this second set of pairs of bills....
    • The pairs of bills below meet the same criteria as the set above, but they have no new co-sponsors yet.
    • Often, a bill's main sponsor has to take some time to gather up co-sponsors to sign the bill.
    • We'll check back in a few weeks and add the new co-sponsors, again focusing on incoming freshmen Members.
    • For now, we link the bill from the previous Congresses to the corresponding bill from the 115th Congress (the links include the currently-empty list of new sponsors)
    • We'll do the same for the 115th Senate in a few weeks too -- the Senate is traditionally slower at filing bills than the House.
      Bill from previous Congress, which have no new co-sponsors so farBill from 115th Congress, awaiting new co-sponsors
      Protecting Employees and Retirees in Business Bankruptcies Act (2013)Updated to include 2017 version, H.R.138
      Strengthening Fishing Communities and Increasing Flexibility in Fisheries Management Act (2011)Updated to include 2017 version, H.R.200
      Title X Abortion Provider Prohibition Act (2013)Updated to include 2017 version, H.R.217
      Housing Fairness Act (2011)Updated to include 2017 version, H.R.149
      Federal Sunset Act (2009)Updated to include 2017 version, H.R.31
      Jerusalem Embassy and Recognition Act (2015)Updated to include 2017 version, H.R.265
      Original Living Wage Act (2015)Updated to include 2017 version, H.R.122
      African Elephant Conservation and Legal Ivory Possession Act (2014)Updated to include 2017 version, H.R.226
      Source: OnTheIssues archives.
      For more: House of Representatives.

      115th Congress inaugurated: Jan. 3, 2017

      Republican majorities in both chambers elect leadership (and Democrats too)

        The person who is 2nd in line for the Presidency, and the person who is 3rd in line for the Presidency, were elected today, but hardly anyone noticed despite the importance of this vote for the Constitutionally-defined "line of succcession." The Constitution specifies that the Speaker of the House is 2nd in line, after the Vice President -- and further specifies that the President Pro-Tem of the Senate is 3rd in line -- those two positions were filled by elections today. Try googling this event and you will find very little -- so we summarize the results here.

        New members of the 115th Congress are sworn in today, two weeks ahead of the presidential inauguration. The first order of business, for both chambers, is to elect new leadership. Leadership positions are elected by partisan votes, with separate votes for each party's leadership positions. The new Congressional leaders are:

      President of the SenateVice President Mike Pence (R, IN)
      President Pro-Tem of the SenateOrrin Hatch (R, UT)
      Senate Majority LeaderMitch McConnell (R, KY)
      Senate Majority WhipJohn Cornyn (R, TX)
      Senate Minority LeaderCharles Schumer (D, NY)
      Senate Minority WhipDick Durbin (D, IL)
      Speaker of the HousePaul Ryan (R, WI)
      House Majority LeaderKevin McCarthy (R, CA)
      House Majority WhipSteve Scalise (R, LA)
      House Minority LeaderNancy Pelosi (D, CA)
      House Minority WhipSteny Hoyer (D, MD)
        All of the newly-inaugurated members are now fully covered on the issues, on our Senate pages and our House of Representatives page.

        And if you're wondering who's 4th in line for Presidency after Paul Ryan and Orrin Hatch -- that would be Secretary of State John Kerry, until Trump's Secretary of State nominee gets confirmed. The rest of the Cabinet fills in the line of succession from 5th in line and onwards -- see our Cabinet succession list for details!

        Source: OnTheIssues archives.
        For more: Senate and House of Representatives.

        IFFY Awards: Dec. 31, 2016

        OnTheIssues.org presents our annual IFFY awards for "iffy" candidates

          OnTheIssues condemns candidates with an "IFFY Award" for running an "Issue-Free campaign." These are "iffy" candidates because they refused to provide voters with information on what they believe and how they will legislate. They are likely to be "iffy legislators" too -- never providing their constituents with information, on the belief that the less voters know, the more likely the "iffy" candidates are to get re-elected.

          An IFFY award is a non-partisan condemnation: OnTheIssues doesn't care WHAT candidates' issue stances are -- as long as they HAVE issue stances!

          At OnTheIssues, we believe that candidates should make clear their issue stances, and if they don't do that, then they should not run for office at all, and if they get elected and still won't divulge their issue stances, that they should resign or be driven from office by outraged constituents.

          The following candidates comprise our IFFY award recipients for 2016. One of them was elected Governor, and the other four Will be seated in the U.S. House of Representatives in January 2017 -- and we recommend that you write to them demanding that they speak on the issues!

        • Anthony Brown Democrat U.S. Rep Maryland- district 4

        • Jim Justice West Virginia Democratic Governor-elect

        • Lou Correa Democrat U.S. Rep California- district 46

        • Ted Budd Republican U.S. Rep North Carolina- district 13

        • Trey Hollingsworth Republican U.S. Rep Indiana- district 9

        Source: OnTheIssues research and a remarkable lack of news sources.

        Louisiana Runoffs: Dec. 10, 2016

        Three final members of Congress

          Lousiana's elections on November 8th left three seats in Congress undecided, because Louisiana law requires a "runoff" election between the top two vote-getters if no one gets over 50% of the vote.

          Winners of the three runoff races:

        • Senator-Elect John Neely Kennedy(R) beat Foster Campbell(D).
        • District 3 Representative-Elect Clay Higgins(R) replaced Charles Boustany(R) who retired to run for Senate.
        • District 4 Representative-Elect Mike Johnson(R) replaced John Fleming(R) who retired to run for Senate.

        Source: OnTheIssues archives and New Orleans Times-Picayune.
        For more: Louisiana Politicians on the Issues.

        Cabinet nominations: Dec. 4, 2016

        Who will get nominated? Actual accouncements plus speculation

        Source: PoliticalWire.com and numerous news source.
        For more: Cabinet Members On the Issues.

      Prediction versus results: Nov. 28, 2016

      OnTheIssues.org predictions as bad as everyone else's in 2016

      Presidential electoral counts: Hillary Clinton 232;
      Donald Trump 306;
      Evan McMullin 0
      Hillary Clinton 372;
      Donald Trump 160;
      Evan McMullin 6
      Recounts still underway in MI, WI, and PA
      Party control of U.S. House: Democrats gain 6 seats, leaving Republican majority of 241-194. Democrats gain 25 seats, leaving Republican majority of 222-213. Two runoff elections pending in Louisiana on Dec. 10; both have retiring Republican incumbents
      Party control of U.S. Senate: Democrats gain 2 seats, leaving Republican majority of 52-48. Democrats gain 6 seats, winning Democratic majority of 52-48. One runoff election pending in Louisiana on Dec. 10
      Party control of Governorships: Republicans gain 3 seats, leaving Republican majority of 34-16. OnTheIssues made no prediction but it would have been just as inaccurate as above! One gubernatorial outcome still being contested in courts, in North Carolina

      We predicted that the polls were systemically inaccurate in the Democrats' favor because they discounted get-out-the-vote efforts by Hillary. In fact, the polls were systemically inaccurate in the Republicans' favor because they discounted many voters who would not tell the pollsters their vote.

      For more: House outcomes by contest, Senate outcomes by contest and Gubernatorial outcomes by contest.

      Presidential prediction: Oct. 28, 2016

      OnTheIssues.org prediction: Democrats win 372-160

      Electoral counts: Hillary Clinton 372; Donald Trump 160; Evan McMullin 6
      • OnTheIssues predicts a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton, 372-160 electoral votes.

      • Some points of interest:

      • We predict that Evan McMullin will win Utah and its 6 electoral votes.

      • That would be the first electoral vote victory for a 3rd-party candidate since George Wallace in 1968.

      • Even if McMullin loses Utah, he will most likely come in second place, the first time a non-major party has come in second since Ross Perot in 1992.

      • We predict that Hillary will turn blue many traditionally red states, including North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.

      • We do not predict that Hillary will turn Texas blue -- but the pundits love that possibility and will talk about it endlessly on election night.

      • When the polls close at 8 PM on election night, the bellweather states are PA, GA, and NC -- if those three fall to Hillary, our map will be pretty accurate for the rest of the country.

      • Nebrasks and Maine split their electoral votes; we predict both will do so, with the urban areas going for Hillary and the rural areas for Trump.

      • Methodology:

      • As with our Senate Prediction and House Prediction, our preliminary analysis is "meta-analysis" of polls, summing up the results of numerous credible statewide polls nationwide.

      • Then we apply political intuition as to why the polls are systemically over-counting or under-counting in their results (for example, the polls in 2008 and 2012 systemically under-counted turnout among minority voters and young voters -- our intuitive effort here is to predict those sorts of systemic errors for 2016).

      • There are two core systemic errors for 2016 that the polls cannot capture: increased turnout among youth and minorities (which favors Hillary Clinton), and decreased GOTV efforts by the Republican Party (which disfavors Donald Trump).

      • The Clinton campaign is currently attempting to increase youth turnout by deploying Bernie Sanders and is also currently attempting to increase minority turnout by deploying Barack Obama. We do not think these efforts will be very successful -- Hillary simply does not appeal to youth like Bernie Sanders does, and does not appeal to minorities like Barack Obama does. Her efforts will succeed at avoiding these groups voting for Trump, but we predict the usual historically low turnout, unlike the very high youth turnout enjoyed by Sanders in the 2016 primaries and the historically high minority turnout enjoyed by Obama in 2012.

      • Bottom line on youth and minorities: the polls will get it right: youth and minorities will vote overwhelmingly for Hillary over Trump, but will have under-whelming turnout at the polls.

      • The Trump campaign is attempting to overcome lackluster participation by Republican Party officials nationwide -- we explore this problem in detail in our commentary on the second presidential debate. Lackluster Republican Party participation in the presidential campaign means that "GOTV efforts" -- "Get Out The Vote" on election day -- will be severely hampered by having only half the number of Republican volunteers compared to Democratic volunteers. This "GOTV failure" will cost Trump 3% or 4% on Election Day -- and the daily tracking polls do NOT account for this!

      • Bottom line on Republican GOTV: If the polls indicate that Trump is only ahead by 2% or 3% in a particular state, it is likely that Hillary will win that state due to superior Democratic GOTV. Trump has consistently complained that the Republican Party has not done its fair share -- we agree, and we think that will cost Trump the election!

      For more: Hillary Clinton On the Issues and Donald Trump On the Issues .

      House of Representatives prediction: Oct. 26, 2016

      OnTheIssues.org prediction: Republicans hold their House majority by 5 seats

        Currently the GOP holds a House majority of 30 seats. OnTheIssues predicts that the Democrats will gain a substantial number of seats in the House, but not quite enough to overcome the Republican majority. Our summary prediction first:
      1. Category A: First we list 27 Republican-held districts where we predict a Democratic win.
      2. Category B: Then we list 2 Democrat-held districts where we predict a Republican win -- which means a net 25 turnovers, 5 fewer than is needed for a Democratic majority.
      3. Category C: 15 Republican-held House districts where we predict the Republicans will retain the seat in a tight race.
      4. Category D: 3 Democratic-held House districts where we predict the Democrats will retain the seat in a tight race.
      We predict that for all 388 other districts not listed here, the incumbent party will maintain its seat.

      Net result: House control is maintained by the GOP, with a Republican majority of 247-188 slipping to a weaker majority of 222-213.

        • Category B: 2 Democratic-held districts where we predict a Republican win
        • Florida 2 (R+11) Gwen Graham (retiring); takeover by Ken Sukhia
        • Florida 18 (Even) Patrick Murphy (retiring); takeover by Randy Perkins
        • Category C: 15 hotly-contested Republican-held districts where we predict the Republican will hold the seat
          * These are all districts where our prediction changed since August
        • Arizona 2 (R+9) Martha McSally survives challenge by Victoria Steele
        • Colorado 3 (R+8) Scott Tipton survives challenge by Gail Schwartz
        • Florida 27 (R+11) Ileana Ros-Lehtinen survives challenge by Scott Fuhrman
        • Illinois 12 (R+9) Mike Bost survives challenge by C.J. Baricevic
        • Iowa 3 (R+7) David Young survives challenge by Jim Mowrer
        • Michigan 6 (R+11) Fred Upton survives challenge by Paul Clements
        • Michigan 8 (R+9) Mike Bishop survives challenge by Suzanna Shkreli
        • Michigan 11 (R+4) Dave Trott survives challenge by Former Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (who would caucus R)
        • Minnesota 3 (R+5) Erik Paulsen survives challenge by State Sen. Terri Bonoff
        • New York 1 (R+7) Lee Zeldin survives challenge by Anna E. Throne-Holst
        • New York 23 (R+9) Tom Reed survives challenge by John Plumb
        • Pennsylvania 6 (R+11) Ryan Costello survives challenge by Mike Parrish
        • Pennsylvania 16 (R+7) Joe Pitts survives challenge by Christina Hartman
        • Virginia 5 (R+6) Robert Hurt survives challenge by Jane Dittmar
        • Washington 8 (R+4) Dave Reichert survives challenge by Santiago Ramos
        • Category D: 3 hotly-contested Democratic-held districts where we predict the Democrat will hold the seat
          * These are all districts where our prediction changed since August
        • Arizona 1 (D+4) Ann Kirkpatrick (retiring); Tom O'Halleran survives challenge by Paul Babeu and Former Secretary of state Ken Bennett
        • Nebraska 2 (D+3) Brad Ashford survives challenge by Don Bacon
        • New York 3 (D+11) Steve Israel survives challenge by Jack Martins
        Prediction methodology
      • We use a "meta-analysis" of looking at the averages of several polls simultaneously (not using partisan voting history in the district as in our earlier prediction). Such analyses are available on Wikipedia and in numerous other sources.
      • First we determine "competitive" districts, where several polling organizations indicate that the incumbent party might lose.
      • Then we look at the actual opponents; they must meet several criteria:
      • They must have a web presence (a professional campaign website, and presence in newspaper reports)
      • They must have an "issues" section on their website (we refuse to predict any candidate can win without a platform -- and we found MANY such candidates!)
      • They must be within "striking distance," i.e. within 4 percentage points, a typical margin-of-error on polls.
      • Meeting those criteria "certifies" a challenger as winnable and hence in Category A or B; our theory is that 2016 is a "change election" and any seriously-challenged incumbent will lose if the polls indicate "even" or a challenger slightly behind.

      For more: Members of the House of Representatives On the Issues.

      Senate prediction: Oct. 23, 2016

      OnTheIssues.org prediction: Democrats take a Senate majority by 2 seats

      Our state-by-state analysis of the Senate is presented below; we predict a 2-seat majority by the Democrats.
        Our summary prediction first. Currently the GOP holds a Senate majority of 4 seats.
      1. Category A: First we list 7 Republican-held districts where we predict a Democratic win.
      2. Category B: Then we list 1 Democrat-held district where we predict a Republican win -- which means a net 6 turnovers, 2 more than is needed for a Democratic majority.
      3. Category C: 17 Republican-held Senate seats where we predict the Republicans will retain the seat.
      4. Category D: 9 Democratic-held Senate seats where we predict the Democrats will retain the seat.
      5. Net result: Senate control switches from a Republican majority of 54-46 to a Democratic majority of 52-48.

      For more: Members of the Senate On the Issues.

      Third presidential debate: Oct. 19, 2016

      Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton debate in Las Vegas

      Excerpts and fact-checking from the third debate:

      • Donald Trump on Abortion: Not acceptable to rip baby from womb in 9th month.
      • Donald Trump on Budget & Economy: We're dying at 1% GDP growth; we don't make things anymore.
      • Hillary Clinton on Free Trade: I fought illegal dumping of Chinese steel and aluminum.
      • Donald Trump on Free Trade: I disagreed with Ronald Reagan on trade; we need better
      • Evan McMullin on Free Trade: Consistent conservative in favor of free trade.
      • Hillary Clinton on Government Reform: Unprecedented Russian interference in presidential election.
      • Jill Stein on Government Reform: We need ranked-choice voting in presidential elections.
      • Hillary Clinton FactCheck on Immigration: Yes, voted for a partial wall on Mexican border
      • Donald Trump FactCheck on Immigration: Yes, Hillary would increase Syrian refugees by 550%
      What about the supposedly all-important assertion by Donald Trump that he won't accept the results of the election? (It's there in our excerpts; Hillary called it "horrifying" and the mainstream media has harped on about it endlessly).

      Well, here's what that really means: NOTHING.

      What happens if Hillary is declared the winner on election night and Trump never concedes? NOTHING.

      What happens if Trump NEVER accepts the election results? NOTHING.

      All of these seemingly important events -- Hillary being declared the winner; Trump calling with a concession speech; the loser "accepting" the election results -- none of these matter one bit. Do you know what the U.S. Constitution says about all of those things? NOTHING.

      The Constitution is clear on how presidential elections ACTUALLY work:

      • Each state determines the winner of the electoral votes in that state (by the Secretary of State certifying the result, or various terminology analogous to that).
      • If Trump actually wants to DO something to "not accept the election results," he would have to file a lawsuit in individual states where the election was close enough to warrant that -- TK34 states allow that.
      • 20TK states have an automatic recount process if there's a tight enough margin -- that's what occurred in Florida in 2000 -- otherwise Trump has to pay for a recount.
      • Trump can file those lawsuits regardless of whether he concedes on election night or not (you might recall that in 2000, Al Gore DID concede, and then called George W. Bush back to "rescind" his concession -- but none of that really mattered Constitutionally -- filing his lawsuit the next day DID matter -- that led to the case "Bush v. Gore" that went to the Supreme Court).
      • There are rules in each state about how close the results have to be, to allow filing a lawsuit like that -- Trump can do so, individually in each state, and that would delay certification in THAT state, but not in any other states.
      • After the Secretaries of State certify each state's results, the "Electoral College" meets to finalize the presidential election -- regardless of Trump's "acceptance" of the results or not -- that's what the Constitution is all about.
      • Let's say Hillary wins with 372 electoral votes on election night -- with 270 needed to win, that means Trump would have to file lawsuits in states adding up to at least 102 electoral votes (that's at least a half-dozen mid-size states) in order to delay the Electoral College from voting regardless of some states being delayed.
      • So when you hear the mainstream media harping on about Trump "threatening democracy," you might refer them to the U.S. Constitution -- it's all laid out clearly in Article II, without any reference to "acceptance" or "concession" or anything else -- and nothing Trump has said is any threat to that!

      For more: Excerpts from third presidential debate.

      Second presidential debate: Oct. 9, 2016

      Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump debate at Washington University

      Excerpts and fact-checking from the second debate:

      • Donald Trump on Budget & Economy: U.S. 1% growth is almost no growth, and due to high taxes.
      • Hillary Clinton on Corporations: I voted to close corporate tax loopholes that Trump used.
      • Hillary Clinton FactCheck on Energy & Oil: US not yet quite energy-independent.
      • Donald Trump on Families & Children: I have great respect for women; despite locker-room talk.
      • Hillary Clinton on Free Trade: Trade prosecutor to deal with China illegally dumping steel.
      • Donald Trump on Health Care: ObamaCare will never work; repeal it and replace it.
      • Donald Trump on Homeland Security: Replace a Muslim ban with an extreme vetting of Muslims.
      • Donald Trump on Immigration: Border agents endorsed me because I understand the border.
      • Hillary Clinton on Principles & Values: I've produced results in my 30 years of public service.
      • Donald Trump FactCheck on Tax Reform: Cutting carried interest gains $18B in revenue.
      • Mike Pence FactCheck on War & Peace: Pence says pressure Assad; Trump focuses on ISIS.

      For more: Excerpts from second presidential debate.

      Vice-presidential debate: Oct. 4, 2016

      Republican Mike Pence vs. Democrat Tim Kaine, plus commentary and fact-checking

      An estimated 37 million people watched the vice-presidential debate. Our first round of excerpts:

      • Tim Kaine on Budget & Economy: We tried Trump tax plan in 2000s: it caused Great Recession.
      • Mike Pence on Crime: Law enforcement is not a force for racism or division.
      • Donald Trump on Foreign Policy: FactCheck: Japan should defend itself, including with nukes.
      • Mike Pence on Foreign Policy: America's place in the world is weakened.
      • Tim Kaine on Immigration: No "deportation force" going door-to-door to deport 16M.
      • Tim Kaine on Jobs: Trump is "You're fired"; Hillary is "You're hired".
      • Bill Weld on Principles & Values: Trump's agenda is hurtful to America & the world.
      • Donald Trump on Principles & Values: A businessman, not a lifelong politician.
      • Mike Pence on Principles & Values: Serve based on a lifetime of experience from small towns.
      • Tim Kaine: I bring experience of service at all levels of government.
      • Tim Kaine on Social Security: Never, ever risk Social Security with privatization.
      • Mike Pence on Social Security: We're going to meet our obligations to our seniors.
      • Donald Trump on Social Security: FactCheck: Yes, "privatization would be good for all of us".
      • Mike Pence on Tax Reform: Lower taxes across the board, and we'll get growth.
      • Tim Kaine on War & Peace: We now have fewer troops abroad & reduced Iranian threat.

      For more: Excerpts from the Vice-Presidential debate.

      First presidential debate: Sept. 26, 2016

      Excerpts from first presidential debate at Hofstra University

      An estimated 81 million people watched the first presidential debate. Our first round of excerpts:

      • Hillary Clinton on Budget & Economy: No trumped-up trickle-down: reward work, not transactions.
      • Donald Trump on Crime: Stop-and-frisk worked very well in NYC.
      • Hillary Clinton on Crime: Stop-and-frisk is ineffective as well as unconstitutional.
      • Donald Trump on Energy & Oil: America invested in solar panels and it was a disaster.
      • Donald Trump on Families & Children: Hillary and I agree on paid family leave.
      • Donald Trump on Tax Reform: Not paying income taxes makes me smart.

      For more: Excerpts from first presidential debate.