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Background on Foreign Policy



Foreign Policy topics in the 2024 election cycle:

Ukraine War

The core issue in 2024 is "Who are our allies?" with very different answers from the two parties about who the US should talk to. On the war in Eastern Europe...

The Foreign Policy section is about who the US should talk to; the related War & Peace section is about where the US should send troops or military materiel; the Homeland Security section is about how the US should fund defense actions. On who the US should talk to, Trump has been consistent for years that talking to dictators is the president's role as negotiator-in-chief, and that yes, he talks to dictators, but he "talks tough": The Democrats, on the other hand, claim that Trump threatens democracy by cozying up to non-democracies: The Democrats claim that Putin's invasion of Ukraine was "unprovoked" but the United States and NATO provoked them for many years; Trump points out that Russia did not take any further Ukrainian territory during his term (which is true), because he didn't push NATO membership for Ukraine (which might be true): President Obama sought to extend NATO to include Ukraine, while Putin warned for years that Russia would consider that a cause for war. Putin acted on that threat in 2014 by invading Crimea (part of Ukraine), which Russian troops have occupied ever since; Russia invaded the Donbas region in 2022 which heated up the war. The path to NATO membership has continued to be United States policy under Biden/Harris, who continue to call the invasion "unprovoked," even though Putin made clear Russia felt provoked. The mainstream media has kowtowed to the Administration and routinely publish news articles with headlines like "Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine" (that should be an opinion, not a headline). See War & Peace: Ukraine section for a fuller timeline.

The other two foreign policy hotspots of 2024 are Israel/Hamas (detailed under War & Peace: Gaza, and China/Taiwan (detailed under Free Trade: China but see plenty below from 2020). In summary, Trump applies his mantra of "talk tough and we can solve the problems quickly." Biden/Harris apply more traditional diplomacy; a few excerpts:

South China Sea (China vs. Taiwan)

  • Conflicting claims in the South China Sea: Six different countries have overlapping claims to the international waters of the South China Sea -- China, Taiwan, the Phillipines, Brunei, Malaysia, and Vietnam. See map to the left with color-coding for each of the six countries involved.
  • Spratly Islands: This area of dozens of small islands are claimed by all six countries, and the overlapping claims have led to a brewing conflict, sometimes violent, from 1988 to 2024. The Spratly Islands have some commercial fishing and oil value, but China cares most about the shipping route from China to the west.
  • Artificial Islands: Since 2012, China has been building artificial islands by reclaiming land on existing sub-surface reefs in the Spratlys and in the Paracel islands as well. These can serve as naval bases and airbases, but mostly bolster China's claim of sovereign ownership.
  • Nine-dash line: China has for decades claimed that the nine-dash line (shown on the map in red) is their historical right. Taiwan makes the same claim, but calls it "the eleven-dash line" (Mao Zedong erased two lines to improve relations with Vietnam).
  • Belt and Road Initiative: China has been creating a "Maritime Silk Road" -- for trade with Europe, the Mideast, and Africa like the ancient land-based Silk Road -- which relies on shipping through the South China Sea.

    That encapsulates China's stance concerning the South China Sea -- foremost for American foreign policy is China-Taiwan relations. The South China Sea dispute is just a small bit of the overall dispute between China and Taiwan -- who fought a long civil war in the 1930s resulting in two countries. The United States has to choose sides (or avoid choosing sides) between mainland China, the Communist giant and America's worldwide rival, and Taiwan, a capitalist democracy with little power or significance....

  • U.S. Taiwan relations: Officially, the United States has no diplomatic relations with Taiwan -- in other words, we don't formally recognize the existence of the Republic of China as a separate country. America has diplomatically recognized only the People's Republic of China (Beijing, run by the CCP) since President Nixon's opening in 1972.
  • Normalizing relations with Taiwan? Every president since Nixon has taken a couple of steps toward "normalizing" Taiwan -- China routinely complains about each step. Trump "normalized" U.S. relations with Taiwan during his first term by ignoring the pundits' warnings about geopolitical stability -- compare how the other candidates focus on Taiwan as a pawn in Cold-War-style chess, rather than Trump's focus on Taiwan's actual U.S. relations:
  • TRUMP: Regularized arms sales, diplomacy, and trade with Taiwan (Nov. 2024)
  • VANCE: Chips from Taiwan power the modern economy (July 2024)
  • Former UN Ambassador Nikki HALEY: Win in Ukraine to protect Taiwan from China (Dec. 2023; Trump wants to end the Ukraine war without any victors)
  • DOGE nominee Vivek RAMASWAMY: US will absolutely defend Taiwan: that's deterrence (Dec. 2023; explicit Cold War deterrence against China)
  • Former V.P. Mike PENCE: Letting Russia take Ukraine lets China take Taiwan (Sept. 2023; this is "geopolitical chess")
  • Chinese President XI Jinping: Don't relapse into confrontation & division of Cold War era (Nov 2021, explictly countering the Cold War geopolitics)
  • HARRIS: Don't ban TikTok, but national security concerns with owner tech (March 2024; TikTok is controlled by the China)
  • BIDEN: We are for de-risking, not decoupling, with China (Sept. 2023; this means "keep things calm about Taiwan, and keep talking to Beijing"; Biden doesn't differ much from Trump's policy)

    America's policy on Taiwan is very much a multi-dimensional policy, mixing trade issues with foreign policy and miltary issues. Accordingly, our readers might refer to our "China news" page for consolidated updates (OnTheIssues had a separate "China issues" page in the early 2000s, where you can read older background on China).


    Foreign Policy topics in the 2020 election cycle:

    Foreign Policy Topics for 2015-2016
    Foreign Policy Topics for 2014-2016
    New Foreign Policy Topics for 2012
    Arab Spring
    Foreign Aid
    The 2016 election has candidates demanding a decrease in foreign aid (or an increase). The actual numbers are listed below; the foreign aid allocation, while controversial, is not economically large: it represents 1.5% of federal expenditures ($45 billion out of $1.3 trillion in 2009). Total foreign aid is broken down into military and non-military components, since many would not consider military assistance to be foreign aid but rather war spending by proxy. For comparison, the total U.S. budget is about $3,800 billion.

    News on Foreign Aid (Candidates' recent excerpts)

    Foreign aid advocates (including Hillary Clinton) suggest increasing foreign aid to 1% of the total budget; that increase would be at least an eight-fold increase.

    Billions / year Economic
    Assistance
     Military
    Assistance
     Total
    Foreign Aid
    2003 $16.1  $8.0  $24.1
    2004 $20.4  $5.9  $26.3
    2005 $25.2  $7.6  $32.8
    2006 $21.9  $10.7  $32.6
    2007 $21.8  $12.9  $34.7
    2008 $26.9  $15.4  $42.3
    2009 $29.8  $14.9  $44.7
    2010 $29.0  $13.3  $42.3
    2011 $30.7  $16.5  $47.2
    2012 $31.1  $14.4  $45.6

    The distribution of foreign aid is not evenly distributed and indeed is politically-determined. The table below shows the distribution for the top ten recipient countries for 2010 to 2012 (average distribution for the three years, in millions). Those three years represent President Obama's first three budgets without influence of President Bush.

    Millions / yearEconomic
    Assistance
     Military
    Assistance
     Total
    Foreign Aid
    Afghanistan $3,050   $6,700   $9,750
    Israel $30   $2,950   $2,980
    Iraq $1,200   $1,500   $2,700
    Pakistan $1,100   $500   $1,600
    Egypt $200   $1,300   $1,500
    Jordan $500   $300   $ 800
    Colombia $500   $100   $ 600
    West Bank/Gaza$600   $0   $ 600
    Russia $400   $100   $ 500
    Mexico $300   $100   $ 400

    United Nations
    Russia
    Israel & Palestine
    Iraq
    North Korea
    Asian Economic Crisis
    The economies of the Asia-Pacific region until 1997 seemed to be rushing towards prosperity on par with the US and Europe. But in July 1997, the currencies of Thailand and Indonesia collapsed, followed by recessions throughout East Asia. The 'Asian Miracle' countries were characterized by limited democracy (usually one-party) in open economies (albeit via political insiders). The current situation is:
  • Japan: In slump since 1990 and in recession since June 1998; Japan outlined an Emergency Economic Package in Nov. 1998.
  • Indonesia: President Suharto resigned after 1998 riots in which 1,200 were killed; elections promised for 1999.
  • East Timor: Indonesia invaded East Timor in 1975 shortly after Portugal granted it independence. This island of 800,000 people (to Indonesia's 200 million) voted 80% for independence in August 1999. In September, Pres. Habibie invited in an Australian-led, UN-sponsored force of 7,000, including US support groups but no troops, to stop a massacre by the Indonesian army.
  • China: Holding the line on devaluing its currency is credited with stopping total Asian economic collapse. China's economy has been growing by 8-10% annually in recent years, by far the world's fastest growth. They maintain a partially open economy with a Communist government.
  • Asian Tigers: Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan all suffered minor recessions and are currently recovering.
  • ASEAN: Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, and Thailand were economically weaker than the more developed 'Tigers,' and suffered accordingly. Nevertheless, ASEAN admitted 4 new members (Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos), which may open and democratize those countries.

      Amazon books on Foreign Policy:
    • American Foreign Policy
    • Embracing Israel/Palestine
    • The Rhetoric of American Exceptionalism

      2024 citations on Foreign Policy: https://www.britannica.com/topic/territorial-disputes-in-the-South-China-Sea Encyclopedia Brittanica, "International Relations > territorial disputes in the South China Sea"

      Older references and citations on Foreign Policy:

    • U.S. Trade Representative, "U.S.-China Trade Facts: 2018," downloaded October 2020
    • WorldBank.org, "The World Bank In China," downloaded October 2020
    • Statistics Times, "Comparing United States and China by Economy," 02 Aug 2019
    • Wikipedia, "List of countries by incarceration rate," downloaded November 2020
    • The Conversation, "China's military might is much closer to the US than you probably think," by Peter Robertson, October 1, 2019
    • Department of Defense, "Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republics of China," 2020
    • Wikipedia, "List of states with nuclear weapons," downloaded October 2020
    • BBC, "The Uighurs and the Chinese state: A long history of discord," 20 July 2020
    • Council on Foreign Relations, "China's Repression of Uighurs in Xinjiang," by Lindsay Maizland, June 30, 2020
    • State Department, "U.S. Relations With Hong Kong," Aug. 28, 2020
    • South China Morning Post, "Hong Kong protests, one year on," downloaded Oct. 2020
    • Time magazine, "How Beijing's National Security Crackdown Transformed Hong Kong in a Single Month," by Laignee Barron, August 4, 2020
    • Federation of American Scientists, "The Kurds in Turkey," downloaded Oct. 2020
    • Cultural Survival Quarterly Magazine, "Kurdish Repression in Turkey," June 1982
    • BBC, "Turkey v Syria's Kurds: The short, medium and long story," 23 October 2019
    • CNN, "Russian meddling efforts intensifying as US election nears," by Jeremy Herb, September 12, 2020
    • CNN, "White House was warned that Giuliani was being used by Russians to 'feed misinformation' to Trump," by Devan Cole, October 15, 2020
    • Reuters, "Armenia says Turkey seeks to continue genocide in Nagorno-Karabakh," Oct. 7, 2020
    • BBC, "Q&A: Armenian genocide dispute," 30 October 2019
    • Wall Street Journal, "Trump Eyes a New Real Estate Purchase: Greenland," by y Vivian Salama, Rebecca Ballhaus, Andrew Restuccia and Michael C. Bender, Aug. 16, 2019
    • The Guardian, "Trump cancels Denmark trip after PM says Greenland is not for sale," by Edward Helmore, 20 Aug 2019
    • BBC, "Jamal Khashoggi murder: Saudi court commutes death sentences," 7 September 2019
    • NPR, "Trump And Pompeo Have Enabled A Saudi Cover-Up Of The Khashoggi Killing," by Aaron David Miller & Richard Sokolsky, October 2, 2019
    • The Guardian, "America is likely complicit in war crimes in Yemen. It's time to hold the US to account," by Mohamad Bazzi, 3 Oct 2019
    • USA Today, "North Korea says diplomacy with Trump has failed," Kim Hjelmgaard, June 12, 2020
    • Reuters, "Heir unapparent: If North Korea faces succession, who might replace Kim?," by Sangmi Cha, May 2, 2020
    • Reuters, "Biden on North Korea: Fewer summits, tighter sanctions, same standoff," by Josh Smith, Hyonhee Shin, & Trevor Hunnicutt, Aug. 20, 2020
    Other candidates on Foreign Policy: Background on other issues:
    2024 Presidential Nominees:
    Pres.Joe Biden (Democratic incumbent)
    V.P.Kamala Harris (Democratic nominee)
    Chase Oliver (Libertarian Party)
    Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (Independent)
    Dr.Jill Stein (Green Party)
    Pres.Donald Trump (Republican nominee)
    Sen.JD Vance (Republican V.P. nominee)
    Gov.Tim Walz (Democratic V.P. nominee)
    Dr.Cornel West (People's Party)

    2024 Presidential primary contenders:
    Gov.Doug Burgum (R-ND)
    Gov.Chris Christie (R-NJ)
    Gov.Ron DeSantis (R-FL)
    Larry Elder (R-CA)
    Rep.Will Hurd (R-FL)
    Gov.Nikki Haley (R-SC)
    Gov.Asa Hutchinson (R-AR)
    Perry Johnson (R-IL)
    Mayor Steve Laffey (R-RI)
    V.P.Mike Pence (R-IN)
    Rep.Dean Phillips (D-MN)
    Vivek Ramaswamy (R-)
    Sen.Tim Scott (R-SC)
    Secy.Corey Stapleton (R-MT)
    Mayor Francis Suarez (R-FL)
    Marianne Williamson (D-CA)

    2024 Presidential primary also-ran's or never-ran's:
    Ryan Binkley (R-TX)
    Howie Hawkins (Green Party)
    Joe Maldonado (Libertarian Party)
    Sen.Bernie Sanders (D-VT)
    Kanye West (Birthday Party)
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