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(Feb. 6, 2019)
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(Jan.-March, 2018)
2018 State of the Union speech
(Jan. 30, 2018)
2017 State of the Union speech
(Feb. 28, 2017)
Third Presidential debate
(Oct. 19, 2016)
Second Presidential debate
(Oct. 9, 2016)
Vice-presidential debate
(Oct. 4, 2016)
First Presidential debate
(Sept. 26, 2016)
Bernie Sanders vs. Hillary Clinton On the Issues
(paperback Feb. 2016)

Miami Democratic debate
(March 2016)
Miami Republican debate
(March 2016)
Republican primary debate in Detroit, Michigan
(March 2016)
CNN-Telemundo Republican debate on eve of Texas primary.
(Feb. 2016)
2016 CNN GOP Town Hall in South Carolina
(Feb. 2016)
2016 CBS News Republican Debate in S.C.
(Feb. 2016)
PBS Democratic Primary Debate in Wisconsin
(Feb. 2016)
2016 ABC News/IJReview Republican Debate in N.H.
(Feb. 2016)
MSNBC Democratic primary debate in New Hampshire
(Feb. 2016)
CNN Democratic Town Hall
(Jan. 2016)
Fox Iowa GOP debate
(Jan. 2016)
NBC/CBC Democratic debate
(Jan. 2016)
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(Jan. 2016)
State of the Union address
(Jan. 2016)
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush On the Issues
(paperback Feb. 2016)

CNN GOP Nevada debate
(Dec. 2015)
Syrian Refugee crisis
(Nov.-Dec. 2015)
CBS Democratic debate
(Nov. 2015)
Fox Business GOP debate
(Nov. 2015)
CNBC GOP debate
(Oct. 2015)

CNN Democrat debate
(Oct. 2015)

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(Sept. 2015)

Fox/Facebook GOP debate
(August 2015)

Marco Rubio vs. Jeb Bush On the Issues
(paperback June 2015)

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul On the Issues
(paperback May 2015)

Rand Paul vs. Jeb Bush On the Issues
(paperback April 2015)

Jeb vs. Hillary On the Issues
(paperback Feb. 2015)

Rand vs. Ron Paul On the Issues
(Chart April 2015)

Hillary vs. Bill Clinton On the Issues
(Chart Feb. 2015)

Jeb vs. George Bush On the Issues
(Chart March 2015)

Excerpts from "Hard Choices"
(by Hillary Clinton)

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(by Jeb Bush)

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Iowa pre-caucus Summits
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No Apology
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Promises to Keep
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End the Fed

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America By Heart
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My Life
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  -   NE - NH - NM - NV - NY - OH - OK - OR - PA - RI - SC - SD - TN - TX - VT - WI - WY -


State of the State Speeches: Feb. 28, 2023

Excerpts from Governor's early State of the State addresses

Most governors make a State of the State address to the state legistlature, or a State of the Commonwealth speech, or some other similar title. We're in the height of "State of the State Season" so we excerpt the early half (we'll do another round in March). Here, we divide excerpt headlines into "left" and "right" on key issues -- look for the party outliers in Republicans on the left or Democrats on the right -- it DOES happen!
Left-leaning stanceDescription of the stancesRight-leaning stance
Katie Hobbs (D, AZ): My administration will always protect reproductive freedom Right to abortion vs. right to life Greg Gianforte (R, MT): Our commitment to unborn babies will never waver
Gretchen Whitmer (D, MI): Let's repeal outdated laws restricting who you can marry LGBTQIA+ rights vs. traditional gender Tate Reeves (R, MS): Radical liberals attempt to undermine scientific truths
Josh Green (D, HI): Move toward restorative approach not strictly punitive Rehabilitation vs. tough-on-crime Michelle Lujan-Grisham: (D, NM): Keep high-risk violent offenders behind bars before trial
Andy Beshear (D, KY): 5% pay raise to address public school teacher shortage Public K-12 vs. private schools Brad Little (R, ID): Support public schools AND educational freedom
Phil Murphy (D, NJ): Primed to be a leader on the East Coast in offshore-wind Renewable energy vs. fossil fuels Jim Justice (D, WV): I believe we need to welcome all sources of energy
Gretchen Whitmer (D, MI): Expand voting rights; protect election workers Expand voting rights vs. restriction Joe Lombardo (R, NV): End universal mail-in ballots; require voter ID
Kathy Hochul (D, NY): $1B and critical policy changes for mental health care Expand public health care vs. privatize Tate Reeves (R, MS): Seek free market solutions to disrupt traditional healthcare
Katie Hobbs (D, AZ): $40M for scholarships regardless of immigration status Welcoming immigrants vs. securing border Brad Little (R, ID): Secure the border to stop supply of fentanyl from Mexico
Tony Evers (D, WI): Big tax breaks for wealthiest 20% of earners is reckless Tax the rich vs. lowering taxes Doug Burgum (R, ND): Adopt the lowest flat-rate income tax in the nation

Source: See additional State of the State speeches.

State Legislation: Feb. 17, 2023

Excerpts from state legislator voting records for new members of Congress

We begin our coverage of newly-elected members of the House of Representatives with state voting records. These newly-seated federal legislators all previously served in their state legislatures. We gather up significant votes and present a selection here, with links to other state votes too.
CA-R State Assembly Member Kevin Kiley AB2223 on Abortion : Keep law requiring coroners to investigate stillbirths
CA-D State Assembly Member Adam Gray AB2501 on Civil Rights : Eliminate "gay panic" tactic for criminal defendants
CA-D State Assembly Speaker Kevin Mullin AB732 on Abortion : Provide full reproductive services in jails and prisons
CO-D State Senator Brittany Pettersen HB21-1211 on Crime : Restrict use of solitary confinement in local jails
CO-D State Rep. Yadira Caraveo HB21-1189 on Environment : Require real-time emissions monitoring of air toxics
FL-D State Rep. Jared Moskowitz HB633 on Abortion : Oppose 24 hour waiting period for abortion
HI-D State Senator Jill Tokuda HB 290 on Drugs : Allow transport between islands of medical marijuana
IL-D State Rep. Delia Ramirez HB2040 on Crime : Prohibit the use of for-profit prisons
IN-R State Senator Erin Houchin SB373 on Education : Supports teaching creation science in public schools
IA-R State Senator Zach Nunn HF 517 on Gun Control : Kids over age 14 can use guns with parental approval
KY-D State Senate Minority Leader Morgan McGarvey HB 11 on Health Care : Ban use of tobacco products in schools
MI-D State Rep. Shri Thanedar HB4838 on Government Reform : Oppose laws perpetuating "Big Lie" of rigged election
NY-R State Assembly Member Mike Lawler S9458 on Gun Control : Kathy Hochul Raise the age to buy semiautomatic rifle to 21
NY-R State Assembly Member Marc Molinaro AB8354 on Civil Rights : Opposed equal marriage rights for same-sex couples
NC-D State Senator Don Davis SB168 on Government Reform : Voted for shielding death investigation records from public
NC-D State Senator Valerie Foushee SB553 on Environment : Opposed weakening environmental/health regulation
NC-D State Senator Wiley Nickel SB168 on Crime : Wiley Nickel Expunge charges from not guilty verdict or dismissal
OH-D State House Minority Leader Emilia Sykes HB128 on Energy & Oil : Repeal bribe-based nuclear subsidies; keep solar subsidies
OK-R State Senator Josh Brecheen SB1140 on Families & Children : Allow religious discrimination by child welfare agencies
OR-D State House Majority Leader Val Hoyle HB4301 on Crime : Ban use of chokeholds by police with few exceptions
PA-D State Rep. Summer Lee HB321 on Abortion : Opposed ban on abortions linked to disabilities
SC-R State Rep. Russell Fry H3728 on Drugs : Require reporting of administration of opioid antidote
TX-D State Rep. Jasmine Crockett HB1927 on Gun Control : Oppose concealed carry without training or permit
VT-D State Senate Majority Leader Becca Balint H308 on Crime : Address racial disparities in criminal justice
VA-R State Senator Jen Kiggans HB1 on Government Reform : Disallow no-excuse absentee voting for all elections

Source: See additional State Legislation coverage.

State of the Union: Feb. 7-9, 2023

Annual Presidential message to a Joint Session of Congress

Source: See additional 2023 SOTU coverage.

100th Senator sworn in: Jan. 23, 2023

No change in party balance, so public barely noticed...

"Former Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts was sworn in as the newest member of the U.S. Senate, replacing Republican Sen. Ben Sasse.

"Ricketts is bringing the Senate back to its 'full 100-person strength,' said Republican leader Mitch McConnell, who welcomed Ricketts on the Senate floor after he was sworn into office by Vice President Kamala Harris. McConnell said the wealthy investor has 'applied private sector savvy to the work of public administration with great effect.'

"The Republican is joining the Senate as Democrats navigate a 51-49 majority, having gained one seat in last year's election and with newly-Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema accepting committee assignments from Democrats. Ricketts replaces Sasse, who took a job as the president of the University of Florida two years into his second term.

"Ricketts was appointed by his successor and political ally, Republican Gov. Jim Pillen, and will have to run in a special election in 2024 to fill out the rest of Sasse's term. If he wins, he would then run again in 2026 for a full six-year term.

"Sasse was a fiercely independent Republican senator who often kept to himself and was a harsh critic of former President Donald Trump, especially after the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol insurrection. Sasse was one of seven Republicans who voted to impeach the president shortly afterward, and Trump frequently lashed out at him.

"Ricketts also has a complicated relationship with the former president, who has criticized him and his family for supporting Republican candidates who he opposed, including Pillen. Trump backed one of Pillen's primary opponents, Charles W. Herbster.

"Nominating Ricketts earlier this month, after Sasse's departure, Pillen said that 111 people applied for the vacant seat and nine Republicans were interviewed. He said he chose Ricketts based on their shared conservatism and Ricketts' promise that he would later run to be elected to the seat. 'I don't believe in placeholders,' Pillen said. 'Placeholders don't have any accountability to the people.' "

Source: See additional 2023 Senate coverage for newly-elected Senate members, and Associated Press for the excerpts above.

House Leadership: Jan. 3-7, 2023

Full results trickling in until Nov. 12 at the earliest!

The United States House of Representatives chooses its own leadership via internal votes.
Generally, leadership positions are filled by each party caucus (Republicans choose their leadership, and Democrats do so separately).
Then the Speaker of the House, a Constitutional position, is elected by the House membership as a whole.
The Speaker vote this year took many ballots over several days -- but here are the results...
Republican House Leadership Democratic House Leadership
  • CA-20: Kevin McCarthy , Speaker of the House
  • LA-1: Steve Scalise, House Majority Leader
  • MN-6: Tom Emmer, House Majority Whip
  • NY-21: Elise Stefanik, House Republican Conference Chair
  • LA-4: Mike Johnson, House Republican Conference Vice Chair
  • MI-10: Lisa McClain, House Republican Conference Secretary
  • AL-6: Gary Palmer, House Republican Policy Committee Chair
  • NC-8: Rich Hudson, National Republican Congressional Committee Chair
  • PA-14: Guy Reschenthaler, House Republican Chief Deputy Whip
  • NY-8: Hakeem Jeffries, House Minority Leader
  • MA-5: Katherine Clark, House Minority Whip
  • SC-6: Jim Clyburn, House Assistant Minority Leader
  • CA-31: Pete Aguilar, House Democratic Caucus Chair
  • CA-33: Ted Lieu, House Democratic Caucus Vice Chair
  • WA-1: Suzan DelBene, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair
  • CO-2: Joe Neguse, House Democratic Policy and Communications Committee Chair
  • VA-7: Abigail Spanberger, House Democratic Battleground Leadership Representative
  • IL-9: Jan Schakowsky, House Democratic Senior Chief Deputy Whip
  • Source: See additional 2023 House coverage for newly-elected House members, coming soon.

    IFFY Awards: Jan. 1, 2023

    Who were the worst candidates on the issues in 2022?

      OnTheissues.org gives out "IFFY Awards" for the most issue-free campaigns in each election cycle. The winners should be ashamed of themselves for hiding their issues stances from voters -- but since IFFY candidates have shown no shame, we will shame them here....

    • Republican nominee for New York Senate Joe Pinion: The lack of an "issues page" on Pinion's campaign website is the foremost characteristic of an iffy candidate. Pinion had little news coverage nor any other coverage either, since he was a "sacrificial lamb" in blue-state New York (i.e. the Republicans wanted to run SOMEone!). His campaign theme was basically "Vote for me because I'm not Chuck Schumer". We thought early in 2022 he was a very interesting candidate -- pro-business but rated 0% by the NRA -- now we think the NRA just couldn't find any gun issue stances.

    • Republican nominee for Maryland Senate Chris Chaffee: No excuse of being a "sacrificial lamb" here -- Maryland has a Republican Governor! Chaffee had no website at all, so we pieced together some issue stances from his Facebook and Twitter feeds, but those sources are so brief as to exclude thoughtfulness on the issues (which is why iffy candidates use them exclusively!)

    • Democratic nominee for Oklahoma Governor Joy Hofmeister: This candidate switched from Republican to Democrat, and then beat previous State Senator Constance Johnson in the Democratic primary. Hofmeister was iffy on her views on the issues, presumably because she was nervous about being herself in a red state. She got a respectable 41% against Republican incumbent Kevin Stitt, and we think she could have won if she had been clearer about her actual issue stances.

    • Two new House members share the shame of issue-free IFFY status: Colorado Democratic Representative-Elect Yadira Caraveo and Florida Republican Representative-Elect Aaron Bean. Both of these candidates served in their state legislatures -- see CO State Senate votes and FL State Rep votes -- which means we can look up their votes (and we did, and will report them shortly). But they didn't tell their constituents about their voting records -- and normal voters have no means to look them up. It's tragic that some candidates feel they have to hide who they are, from their voters -- these two hid everything they could, and won anyway. Bean ran a TV ad where he listed all the problems he sees -- he's a professional auctioneer who can enunciate a lot in "Twenty Seconds"! -- but that sort of "listing the issues" is an old iffy trick to say "here's what the issues ARE without my having to say what I would actually DO."

    • Independent Texas Governor candidate Deirdre Gilbert: Ms. Gilbert was disqualified from the Democratic ballot so she ran as an independent -- which is exactly the sort of candidate that OnTheIssues was invented for! But she turned down our issues quiz, and evidently turned down all other press inquiries as well. Her website is a "word salad" -- a series of complaints in summary terms without context or answers -- resulting in one of the most iffy candidacies of 2022.

    • Special mention to New York Republican Representative-Elect George Santos: we THINK we covered Santos in a non-iffy manner -- he was clear about his issue stances -- but he has been accused of lying about everything from his religion ("Jew-ISH", whatever that means) to just about every aspect of his professional resume. He's a second-time candidate and we don't think he "embellished" so much in 2020, so we trust older issue stances more than the ones currently under multiple investigations.

      Source: See additional 2023 House coverage for newly-elected House members (some still pending as of January -- check back next week!).

    Warnock wins Georgia Senate Runoff: Dec. 6, 2022

    Democrats increase majority to 51-49

      Democrat Raphael Warnock beat Republican Herschel Walker in Georgia's runoff election. A runoff was held because no candidate got a majority on November 6. Prior to this election, Democrats held a majority in the Senate 50-49 -- so did the results really matter to the rest of the country? Yes, for two reasons....

    1. Avoiding 50-50 ties: In 2021-2022, the Senate was tied, 50 Democrats to 50 Republicans. If a vote resulted in a tie, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris gets to vote, so the Democrats win 51-50. If the Georgia Republican had won, this situation would occur again, so why did the pundits care so much about Georgia? Because ALL 50 Democrats had to agree to get to 50-50! That gave a lot of power to the most conservative Democrats, usually West Virginia's Joe Manchin and Arizona's Kyrsten Sinema. With a 51-49 Senate, Democrats can lose one vote and still win with a 50-50 tie.

    2. Committee Majorities: Most legislative work is done in committees, including writing legislation and deciding which legislation gets a vote on the Senate floor. Senate committees in 2021-2022 are split 50-50, just like the partisan balance of the Senate as a whole -- and there's no vice-presidential tie-breaker in committee votes! For example, the Senate Environment Committee has 10 Democrats and 10 Republicans -- with a Democratic Chair but an equal number of Republicans. In contrast, the House Environment Committee has 28 Democrats outnumbering 23 Republicans. In 2023, every Senate committee will seat a majority of Democrats, instead of an even number of Republicans -- a majority instead of a tie.

    Source: See additional 2022 Senate coverage.

    Election results: Nov. 8-24, 2022

    Full results trickling in until Nov. 12 at the earliest!

      Update Nov. 24: Alaska finally reported their Instant Runoff results, and there are a only a few House races left to decide, plus the Georgia runoff on Dec. 6, but here's the "final" big picture, including how OnTheIssues predictions held up....
    • House: The Republicans will take a slim majority. OnTheIssues predicted a thin GOP House majority of 10-20 seats but the actual result will be much thinner than our prediction, well under a 10-seat majority.
    • Governors: The Republicans will lose a few seats. OnTheIssues predicted Democratic gubernatorial gains of 2 seats and that was right on (we predicted one race wrong in each party, for a total of 2 wrong predictions out of 36).
    • Senate: The Democrats will maintain a slim majority. OnTheIssues predicted a thin Democratic Senate majority of 2 seats but the actual result will be either a one-seat Democratic majority, or a 50-50 tie with the Democratic Vice President as the tiebreaker. The Senate is 50R-to-50D with only the Georgia runoff still undecided.
    • Election Deniers: OnTheIssues predicted no 2020 election deniers would win office, and this prediction held true, with zero wins based on an anti-democracy message in any Senate or Gubernatorial races (and in only a few statewide races like Secretary of State).

    Source: See additional 2022 House coverage for newly-elected House members.

    House Election prediction: Oct. 27, 2022

    Republicans gain 10 to 20 seats and gain House majority

    The 117th Congress (the U.S. House of Representatives from January 2021 until January 2023) had 15 special House elections. Following are the old and new members of Congress, with party affiliation marked. We list these as indicative of the electoral chances for the two parties in the November 8th election.

    Unlike Senators and Governors, every member of the House is up for re-election on November 8th. Currently the House partisan balance stands at 220 Democrats to 212 Republicans, with 3 vacancies to be filled on Nov. 8. Traditionally, the party in power loses House seats in the midterm election, and this year looks no different.

    OnTheIssues predicts a net gain of 10 to 20 seats for Republicans, resulting in a House partisan balance of about 227 Republicans to 208 Democrats. That means the Republicans would have a House majority, and hence would appoint Chairs of all House committees, and decide which bills come up for votes, and which pass the House.

    We predict the Senate will remain a Democratic majority -- hence the two chambers will be "split", creating a challenge for passing any legislation. The traditional method to deal with a split Congress is to pass "bipartisan legislation" which both parties agree to -- that means the 118th Congress will be more moderate than the 117th Congress.

    RaceElection dateIncumbentWinner (marked with for winners on Nov. 8)
    Alaska At-LargeAugust 16, 2022Don Young (R, deceased 3/18/22)Mary Peltola (D)
    California 22June 7, 2022Devin Nunes (R, resigned 1/1/22 for CEO job)Connie Conway (R, not running for re-election in Nov. 2022)
    Florida 20January 11, 2022Alcee Hastings (D, deceased 4/6/21)Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D)
    Indiana 2November 8, 2022Jackie Walorski (R, deceased 8/3/22)SPEL Nov. 8th: Rudy Yakym(R)
    Louisiana 2April 24, 2021Cedric Richmond (D, resigned 1/15/21 for Biden Admin. job)Troy Carter (D)
    Louisiana 5March 20, 2021Luke Letlow (R, deceased 12/29/20 as Member-elect)Julia Letlow (R)
    Minnesota 1August 9, 2022Jim Hagedorn (R, deceased 2/17/22)Brad Finstad (R)
    Nebraska 1June 28, 2022Jeffrey Fortenberry (R, resigned 3/31/22 upon criminal conviction)Mike Flood (R)
    New Mexico 1June 1, 2021Debra Haaland (D, resigned 3/16/21 for DOI Secretary job)Melanie Ann Stansbury (D)
    New York 19August 23, 2022Antonio Delgado (D, resigned for Lt. Gov. job)Pat Ryan (D; redistricted to NY-18 on Nov.8); NY-19 Nov. 8 winner: Marcus Molinaro (R)
    New York 23August 23, 2022Tom Reed (R, deceased 8/23/22)Joe Sempolinski (R); Nov. 8 winner: Nicholas Langworthy (R)
    Texas 6July 27, 2021Ronald Wright (R, deceased 2/7/21)Jake Ellzey (R)
    Texas 34June 14, 2022Filemon Vela (D, resigned 3/31/22 for lobbyist job)Mayra Flores (R); defeated on Nov. 8 by: Vicente Gonzalez (D)
    Ohio 11November 2, 2021Marcia Fudge (D, resigned 3/10/21 for HUD Secretary job)Shontel Brown (D)
    Ohio 15November 2, 2021Steve Stivers (R, resigned 5/16/21 for CEO job)Mike Carey (R)

    Source: See additional 2022 House coverage. (Color code: yellow=OnTheIssues-predicted party switch; pink=pundit-predicted party switch).

    Governor Election prediction: Oct. 20, 2022

    Democrats win 18; Republican win 18; all election deniers lose

    OnTheIssues predicts 36 Gubernatoral races split 18 Democrat and 18 Republican victories (Democratic net gain of 2 seats)
    The yellow-highlighted states are where we predict the Governor seat switches party. But there's no "party balance" among the nation's 50 governors, like there is among the 100 Senators, since governors are all independent of each other.

    What DOES matter is the implications for future elections, if an "election denier" is elected governor. A governor who disbelieves in electoral democracy means a chaotic and potentially violent 2024 election. We predict that zero election deniers will be elected governor, because their denial turns off so many voters from voting, including their supporters who share their election denial beliefs. In other words, election deniers hurt their own electoral chances, by claiming falsely that votes don't count.

    The pundits perform their polls, and in some cases predict a party turnover where we don't (highlighted in pink). The election deniers for governor include Kari Lake (AZ), Derek Schmidt (KS), Tudor Dixon (MI), Doug Mastriano (PA), and Tim Michels (WI) -- all of whom the pundits say have a chance to win -- but we don't believe those polls! Ron DeSantis (FL) has flirted with election denial, but has not crossed the line -- so we believe the polls that he will win. Many of those pundits predict victories for election deniers -- but we think their polls are wrong, because the election denial candidates "shoot themselves in the foot".

    StateThe left half are states in which we predict Democratic winners (18).
    (Nov. 8 winners marked in left column for correct predictions and right column for incorrect)
    StateThe right half are states in which we predict Republican winners (18).
    (Nov. 8 winners marked in left column for correct predictions and right column for incorrect)
    AZ Katie Hobbs (Democratic challenger) Kari Lake (Republican challenger) AK Mike Dunleavy (Republican incumbent) Bill Walker (Independent challenger)
    CA Gavin Newsom (Democratic incumbent) Brian Dahle (Republican challenger) AL Kay Ivey (Republican incumbent) Yolanda Flowers (Democratic challenger)
    CO Jared Polis (Democratic incumbent) Heidi Ganahl (Republican challenger) AR Sarah Huckabee Sanders (Republican challenger) Chris Jones (Democratic challenger)
    CT Ned Lamont (Democratic incumbent) Bob Stefanowski (Republican challenger) FL Ron DeSantis (Republican incumbent) Charlie Crist (Democratic challenger)
    HI Josh Green (Democratic challenger) Duke Aiona (Republican challenger) GA Brian Kemp (Republican incumbent) Stacey Abrams (Democratic challenger)
    IL J. B. Pritzker (Democratic incumbent) Darren Bailey (Republican challenger) ID Brad Little (Republican incumbent) Stephen Heidt (Democratic challenger)
    KS Laura Kelly (Democratic incumbent) Derek Schmidt (Republican challenger) IA Kim Reynolds (Republican incumbent) Deidre DeJear (Democratic challenger)
    MA Maura Healey (Democratic challenger) Geoff Diehl (Republican challenger) ME Paul LePage (Republican challenger) Janet Mills (Democratic incumbent)
    MD Wes Moore (Democratic challenger) Dan Cox (Republican challenger) NE Jim Pillen (Republican challenger) Carol Blood (Democratic challenger)
    MI Gretchen Whitmer (Democratic incumbent) Tudor Dixon (Republican challenger) NH Chris Sununu (Republican incumbent) Tom Sherman (Democratic challenger)
    MN Tim Walz (DFL incumbent) Scott Jensen (Republican challenger) OH Mike DeWine (Republican incumbent) Nan Whaley (Democratic challenger)
    NM Michelle Lujan Grisham (Democratic incumbent) Mark Ronchetti (Republican challenger) OK Kevin Stitt (Republican incumbent) Joy Hofmeister (Democratic challenger)
    NV Steve Sisolak (Democratic incumbent) Joe Lombardo (Republican challenger) SC Henry McMaster (Republican incumbent) Joe Cunningham (Democratic challenger)
    NY Kathy Hochul (Democratic incumbent) Lee Zeldin (Republican challenger) SD Kristi Noem (Republican incumbent) Jamie R. Smith (Democratic challenger)
    OR Tina Kotek (Democratic challenger) Christine Drazan (Republican challenger) TN Bill Lee (Republican incumbent) Jason Martin (Democratic challenger)
    PA Josh Shapiro (Democratic challenger) Doug Mastriano (Republican challenger) TX Greg Abbott (Republican incumbent) Beto O'Rourke (Democratic challenger)
    RI Dan McKee (Democratic challenger) Ashley Kalus (Republican challenger) VT Phil Scott (Republican incumbent) Brenda Siegel (Democratic challenger)
    WI Tony Evers (Democratic incumbent) Tim Michels (Republican challenger) WY Mark Gordon (Republican incumbent) Theresa Livingston (Democratic challenger)

    Source: See additional 2022 Governor coverage.

    Senate Election prediction: Oct. 8, 2022

    Democrats increase majority to 52-48

    With exactly one month to go before the election, OnTheIssues predicts a Senate split 52D-48R (Democratic net gain of 2 seats)
    The yellow-highlighted states are where we predict the Senate seat switches party. (Pink highlights are "possible upsets according to pundits"). Since the Republicans started with more seats up for re-election this year, we're predicting that the Democrats will gain seats in the Senate, by taking over some seats currently held by Republicans. Party take-overs are notoriously difficult to predict, and we predict 6 takeovers -- 2 to the Republicans and 4 to the Democrats. It's likely that we'll only predict correctly half of those with yellow highlights -- but even in that case, the Dems will still control the Senate 51-49 or 50-50 (with Kamala Harris as the tiebreaker like she is now). Six months ago, all the pundits predicted a Republican takeover of the Senate (a net loss of at least 1 Democratic seat). The pundits are currently in a dither because they see that their early prognositication is clearly incorrect -- we don't see any net loss for the Democrats as even a remote possibility. We'll predict the House next week, where we'll predict a Republican takeover for sure....
    StateThe left side are states in which we predict Democratic winners (16). StateThe right side are states in which we predict Republican winners (19).
    AZ Mark Kelly (Democratic incumbent) Blake Masters (Republican challenger) AK Lisa Murkowski (Republican incumbent) Kelly Tshibaka (Republican challenger)
    CA Alex Padilla (Democratic incumbent) Mark Meuser (Republican challenger) AL Katie Britt (Republican challenger) Will Boyd (Democratic challenger)
    CO Michael Bennet (Democratic incumbent) Joe O'Dea (Republican challenger) AR John Boozman (Republican incumbent) Natalie James (Democratic challenger)
    CT Richard Blumenthal (Democratic incumbent) Leora Levy (Republican challenger) FL Marco Rubio (Republican incumbent) Val Demings (Democratic challenger)
    GA Raphael Warnock (Democratic incumbent) Herschel Walker (Republican challenger) IA Chuck Grassley (Republican incumbent) Michael Franken (Democratic challenger)
    HI Brian Schatz (Democratic incumbent) Bob McDermott (Republican challenger) ID Mike Crapo (Republican incumbent) David Roth (Democratic challenger)
    IL Tammy Duckworth (Democratic incumbent) Kathy Salvi (Republican challenger) IN Todd Young (Republican incumbent) Thomas McDermott Jr. (Democratic challenger)
    MD Chris Van Hollen (Democratic incumbent) Chris Chaffee (Republican challenger) KS Jerry Moran (Republican incumbent) Mark Holland (Democratic challenger)
    NC Cheri Beasley (Democratic challenger) Ted Budd (Republican challenger) KY Rand Paul (Republican incumbent) Charles Booker (Democratic challenger)
    NY Chuck Schumer (Democratic incumbent) Joe Pinion (Republican challenger) LA John Neely Kennedy (Republican incumbent) Luke Mixon (Democratic challenger)
    OH Tim Ryan (Democratic challenger) J. D. Vance (Republican challenger) MO Eric Schmitt (Republican challenger) Trudy Busch Valentine (Democratic challenger)
    OR Ron Wyden (Democratic incumbent) Jo Rae Perkins (Republican challenger) ND John Hoeven (Republican incumbent) Katrina Christiansen (Democratic–NPL challenger)
    PA John Fetterman (Democratic challenger) Mehmet Oz (Republican challenger) NH Don Bolduc (Republican challenger) Maggie Hassan (Democratic challenger)
    VT Peter Welch (Democratic challenger) Gerald Malloy (Republican challenger) NV Adam Laxalt (Republican challenger) Catherine Cortez Masto (Democratic challenger)
    WA Patty Murray (Democratic incumbent) Tiffany Smiley (Republican challenger) OK-4 Markwayne Mullin (Republican challenger) Kendra Horn (Democratic challenger)
    WI Mandela Barnes (Democratic challenger) Ron Johnson (Republican incumbent) OK-6 James Lankford (Republican incumbent) Madison Horn (Democratic challenger)
    The pink highlights are possible takeover or upset seats, according to New York Magazine and numerous other pundits. SC Tim Scott (Republican challenger) Krystle Matthews (Democratic challenger)
    If you're wondering how we can predict 19 Republican victories yet a Democratic net gain, SD John Thune (Republican incumbent) Brian Bengs (Democratic challenger)
    that's because these 35 seats are currently balanced 21 Republicans and 14 Democrats. UT Mike Lee (Republican incumbent) Evan McMullin (Independent challenger)

    Source: See additional 2022 Senate coverage.

    2022 VoteMatch quiz: October 3, 2022

    Finalized 20 questions and candidate answers for 2022 Senate and Governor elections

      The VoteMatch quiz for 2022 is finalized for the November 8th elections:

    • 36 Senate races: 34 regular Senate contests; plus special elections in CA and OK; plus upcoming 2023 special election in NE.

    • 41 Gubernatorial races: 35 regular Governor contests; plus 3 races in 2021 (NJ, VA, and CA recall); plus 3 races in 2023 (KY, MS,and LA).

    • Presidential races: 2020 race, 2016 race, and past presidents back to the 1950s.

    • Poltiical Philosophy: Answer 20 questions for all of the above, plus you get characterized from liberal progressive to conservative populist.

    Source: See additional 2022 Senate debate coverage and additional 2022 Gubernatorial debate coverage.

    New England Primaries: Sept. 6-13, 2022

    Senate and Gubernatorial primaries in MA, NH, and RI

    Massachusetts Republican Governor primaryMassachusetts Democratic Governor primary
    Rhode Island Republican Governor primaryRhode Island Democratic Governor primary
    New Hampshire Republican Senate primaryNew Hampshire Democratic Senate primary
    New Hampshire Republican Governor primaryNew Hampshire Democratic Governor primary

    Source: See additional coverage: NH Senate - NH Governor - RI Governor - MA Governor.

    Late August primaries: Aug. 13 to Aug. 23, 2022

    Contests in Hawaii, Alaska, Wyoming, Florida, and Oklahoma

    Five states held primary polls, with the following results:

    Hawaii Republican Senate primary (Aug. 13)Hawaii Democratic Senate primary (Aug. 13)
    • 41% Bob McDermott
    • 26% Timothy Dalhouse
    • 14% Wallyn Christian
    • 10% Steven Bond
    Hawaii Republican Governor primary (Aug. 13)Hawaii Democratic Governor primary (Aug. 13)
    • 52% Duke Aiona
    • 24% Jay Penn
    • 11% Gary Cordery
    • 9% Heidi Tsuneyoshi
    Alaska Republican Senate primary (Aug. 16 Top-four primary)Alaska Democratic Senate primary (Aug. 16 Top-four primary)
    • 6% Patricia Chesbro
    • 1% Ivan Taylor
    • 1% Edgar Blatchford
    • 1% Sean Thorne (L)
    Alaska Republican Governor primary (Aug. 16 Top-four primary)Alaska Democratic Governor primary (Aug. 16 Top-four primary)
    Wyoming Republican Governor primary (Aug. 16)Wyoming Democratic Governor primary (Aug. 16)
    Florida Republican Senate primary (Aug. 23)Florida Democratic Senate primary (Aug. 23)
    • 84% Val Demings
    • 6% Brian Rush
    • 6% William Sanchez
    • 4% Ricardo De La Fuente
    Florida Republican Governor primary (Aug. 23)Florida Democratic Governor primary (Aug. 23)
    Oklahoma Republican Senate runoff (Aug. 23)Oklahoma Democratic Senate runoff (Aug. 23)

    Source: See additional Senate coverage: AK - FL - HI - OK - - and additional Gubernatorial coverage: AK - FL - HI - WY.

    Seventh Super Tuesday primaries: Aug. 9, 2022

    Contests in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin

    Four states held primary polls, with the following results:

    Connecticut Republican Senate primaryConnecticut Democratic Senate primary
    Connecticut Republican Governor primaryConnecticut Democratic Governor primary
    Minnesota Republican Governor primaryMinnesota Democratic Governor primary
    Vermont Republican Governor primaryVermont Democratic Governor primary
    • 69% Phil Scott
    • 18% Stephen Bellows
    • 18% Myers Mermel
    Vermont Republican Senate primaryVermont Democratic Senate primary
    Wisconsin Republican Governor primaryWisconsin Democratic Governor primary
    Wisconsin Republican Senate primaryWisconsin Democratic Senate primary

    Source: See additional Senate coverage: CT - VT - WI - and additional Gubernatorial coverage: CT - MN - VT - WI.

    Sixth Super Tuesday primaries: Aug. 2, 2022

    Contests in Colorado, Illinois, New York, Oklahoma, Utah

    Five states held primary polls, with the following results:

    Arizona Republican Governor primaryArizona Democratic Governor primary
    Arizona Republican Senate primaryArizona Democratic Senate primary
    Kansas Republican Governor primaryKansas Democratic Governor primary
    Kansas Republican Senate primaryKansas Democratic Senate primary
    • 38% Mark Holland
    • 20% Paul Buskirk
    • 18% Patrick Wiesner
    • 13% Mike Andra
    Michigan Republican Governor primaryMichigan Democratic Governor primary
    Missouri Republican Senate primaryMissouri Democratic Senate primary
    Washington Republican Senate primaryWashington Democratic Senate primary
    Jungle primary - top two vote-getters advance to November election; OnTheIssues separated by party. /td>
    • 54% Patty Murray (D)
    • 1% Ravin Pierre (D)
    • 1% Mohammad Said (D)
    • 1% Pano Churchill (D)
    • 1% Henry Dennison (Socialist Workers Party)
    • 1% Bryan Solstin (D)
    • 32% Tiffany Smiley (R)
    • 3% Leon Lawson (Trump Republican Party)
    • 3% John Guenther (R)
    • 1% Dave Saulibio (JFK Republican Party)
    • 1% Bill Hirt (R)
    • 1% Naz Paul (Independent)

    Source: See additional Senate coverage: AZ - KS - MO - WA - and additional Gubernatorial coverage: AZ - KS - MI.

    Maryland Primaries: July 19, 2022

    Senate and Gubernatorial primaries

    Maryland Republican Senate primaryMaryland Democratic Senate primary
    • 21% Chris Chaffee
    • 15% Lorie Friend
    • 14% John Thormann
    • 11% Joseph Perez
    • 9% George Davis
    Maryland Republican Governor primaryMaryland Democratic Governor primary

    Source: See additional coverage: MD Senate - MD Governor.

    Fifth Super Tuesday primaries: June 28, 2022

    Contests in Colorado, Illinois, New York, Oklahoma, Utah

    Five states held primary polls, with the following results:

    Colorado Republican Senate primaryColorado Democratic Senate primary
    Colorado Republican Governor primaryColorado Democratic Governor primary
    Illinois Republican Senate primaryIllinois Democratic Senate primary
    • 30% Kathy Salvi
    • 25% Peggy Hubbard
    • 13% Matthew Dubiel
    • 11% Casey Chlebek
    • 9% Bobby Piton
    • 7% Anthony Williams
    • 5% Jimmy Lee Tillman II
    Illinois Republican Governor primaryIllinois Democratic Governor primary
    New York Republican Senate primaryNew York Democratic Senate primary
    • 100% Chuck Schumer
    • 0% Moses Mugulusi (disqualified)
    • 0% Khaled Salem (disqualified)
    New York Republican Governor primaryNew York Democratic Governor primary
    Oklahoma 4-year Republican Senate primaryOklahoma 4-year Democratic Senate primary
      The Democratic primary election was canceled. Kendra Horn advanced from the special Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Oklahoma.
    • 100% Kendra Horn
    Oklahoma 6-year Republican Senate primaryOklahoma 6-year Democratic Senate primary
      No candidate got a majority so a runoff will be held on August 23, 2022.
    • 37% Madison Horn
    • 17% Jason Bollinger
    • 14% Dennis Baker
    • 13% Jo Glenn
    • 12% Brandon Wade
    • 7% Arya Azma
    Oklahoma Republican Governor primaryOklahoma Democratic Governor primary
    • 69% Kevin Stitt
    • 14% Joel Kintsel
    • 13% Mark Sherwood
    • 3% Moira McCabe
    Utah Republican Senate primaryUtah Democratic Senate primary
    • 62% Mike Lee
    • 30% Becky Edwards
    • 8% Ally Isom
      The Democratic Party did not nominate a candidate in this race. The party instead endorsed the independent candidate at their convention.
    • 100% Evan McMullin (I)
    • 0% Austin Searle
    • 0% Allen Glines

    Source: See additional Senate coverage: CO - IL - NY - OK - UT - and additional Gubernatorial coverage: CO - IL - NY - OK.

    Primary elections results, Tuesday, June 21, 2022

    Gubernatorial primary runoffs in Alabama

    Primary runoffs this week decided winners from close primaries from May 24; the results:

    Alabama Republican Senatorial primary runoffAlabama Democratic Senatorial primary
      No Republican achieved a majority on May 24, so the top two Republicans faced off in this runoff.
    • 65% Katie Britt
    • 35% Mo Brooks
    • No Democratic primary runoff was required; Will Boyd won the May 24th primary with 64%.
    Alabama Republican Gubernatorial primaryAlabama Democratic Gubernatorial primary
    • No Republican primary runoff was required; Kay Ivey won the May 24th primary with 64%.
      No Democrat achieved a majority on May 24, so the top two Republicans faced off in this runoff.
    • 55% Yolanda Flowers
    • 45% Malika Sanders-Fortier

    Source: See additional issue coverage of Alabama Governor race and issue coverage of Alabama Senate race.

    Fourth Super Tuesday primaries: June 14, 2022

    Contests in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina

    Four states held primary polls, with the following results:

    Nevada Republican Senate primaryNevada Democratic Senate primary
    Nevada Republican Governor primaryNevada Democratic Governor primary
    South Carolina Republican Senate primarySouth Carolina Democratic Senate primary
      Primary was cancelled because there's only one Republican candidate
    • 100% Senator Tim Scott
      Top two advance to runoff on June 28
    • 34% Catherine Fleming Bruce
    • 33% Krystle Matthews
    • 32% Angela Geter
    Maine Republican Governor primaryMaine Democratic Governor primary
    North Dakota Republican Senate primaryNorth Dakota Democratic Senate primary

    Source: See additional Senate coverage: ND - NV - SC - and additional Gubernatorial coverage: ME - NV - SC.

    Third Super Tuesday primaries: June 7, 2022

    Contests in California, Iowa, New Mexico, and South Dakota

    Four states held primaries for Governor and/or United States Senate. Three additional states -- Mississippi, Montana, and New Jersey -- held primaries too, but only for House and other seats. The results of the Senate and Governor races are shown below, with links to our covered candidates.

    California Senatorial jungle primary--Republican resultsCalifornia Senatorial jungle primary--Democratic results
    • 13% Mark Meuser
    • 5% Cordie Williams (R)
    • 4% Jonathan Elist (R)
    • 4% Chuck Smith (R)
    • 3% James P. Bradley
    • 3% James P. Bradley (R)
    • 1% Sarah Sun Liew (R)
    A "jungle primary" means all candidates appear on a single ballot regardless of party. The top two vote-getters advance to the general election. It doesn't necesarily mean that one Democrat and one Republican advance -- but in these two races, that happened!
    California Gubernatorial jungle primary--Republican resultsCalifornia Gubernatorial jungle primary--Democratic results
    • 61% Gavin Newsom

      Independent Candidate:
    • 3% Michael Shellenberger
    • 15% Brian Dahle
    • 4% Jenny Rae Le Roux (R)
    • 3% Shawn Collins (R)
    • 2% Anthony Trimino (R)
    • 1% Leo Zacky (R)
    Iowa Republican Senatorial primaryIowa Democratic Senatorial primary
    Massachusetts Republican Gubernatorial ConventionMassachusetts Democratic Gubernatorial Convention
    The State Convention determines who makes the primary ballot. The Massachusetts Republican Convention took place on May 22; one candidate advanced to the Sept. 6 primary. The Massachusetts Democratic Convention took place on June 3-4; two candidates advanced to the Sept. 6 primary.
    New Mexico Republican Gubernatorial primaryNew Mexico Democratic Gubernatorial primary
    New Mexico Republican Gubernatorial primaryNew Mexico Democratic Gubernatorial primary
    South Dakota Republican Senatorial primarySouth Dakota Democratic Senatorial primary
    • 0% Brian Bengs

      The South Dakota Democratic Senatorial primary election was canceled because there was only one candidate.

    Source: See additional Senate coverage: CA - IA - SD - and additional Gubernatorial coverage: CA - IA - MA - NM.

    Second Super Tuesday primaries: May 24, 2022

    Contests in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and Texas

    Four states held primary polls, with the following results:

    Alabama Republican Senatorial primaryAlabama Democratic Senatorial primary
    Alabama Republican Gubernatorial primaryAlabama Democratic Gubernatorial primary
    • Runoff scheduled for June 21 (no candidate achieved 50%)
    • 33% Yolanda Flowers
    • 33% Malika Sanders-Fortier
    • 12% Patricia Jamieson Candidate Connection
    • 9% Arthur Kennedy
    • 7% Doug Smith
    • 6% Chad Chig Martin
    Arkansas Republican Senatorial primaryArkansas Democratic Senatorial primary
    Arkansas Republican Gubernatorial primaryArkansas Democratic Gubernatorial primary
    Georgia Republican Senatorial primaryGeorgia Democratic Senatorial primary
    Georgia Republican Gubernatorial primaryGeorgia Democratic Gubernatorial primary
    Texas Republican Gubernatorial primaryTexas Democratic Gubernatorial primary
    • 91% Beto O'Rourke
    • 3% Joy Diaz
    • 3% Michael Cooper
    • 1% Inocencio Barrientez
    • 1% Rich Wakeland

    Source: See additional Senate coverage: AL - AR - GA - and additional Gubernatorial coverage: AL - AR - GA - TX.

    Super Tuesday primaries: May 17, 2022

    Contests in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania

    Five states held primary polls, with tight contests in both the Democratic and Republican primaries, with the following results:

    Kentucky Republican Senate primaryKentucky Democratic Senate primary
    • 86% Rand Paul
    • 4% Val Fredrick
    • 3% Paul Hamilton
    • 3% Arnold Blankenship
    • 2% Tami Stainfield
    • 73% Charles Booker
    • 11% Joshua Blanton Sr.
    • 10% John Merrill
    • 6% Ruth Gao
    Idaho Republican Senate primaryIdaho Democratic Senate primary
    Idaho Republican Governor primaryIdaho Democratic Governor primary
    North Carolina Republican Senatorial primaryNorth Carolina Democratic Senatorial primary
    Oregon Republican Senate primaryOregon Democratic Senate primary
    • 33% Jo Rae Perkins
    • 31% Darin Harbick
    • 13% Samuel Palmer
    • 12% Jason Beebe
    • 8% Christopher Christensen
    • 2% Robert Fleming
    • 1% Ibrahim Taher
    • 90% Ron Wyden
    • 6% William Barlow
    • 4% Brent Thompson
    Oregon Republican Governor primaryOregon Democratic Governor primary
    Pennsylvania Republican Senate primaryPennsylvania Democratic Senate primary
    Pennsylvania Republican Governor primaryPennsylvania Democratic Governor primary

    Source: See additional Senate coverage: KY - ID - NC - OR - PA and additional Gubernatorial coverage: ID - OR - PA.

    Primary elections results, Tuesday, May 10, 2022

    Gubernatorial primary in Nebraska; House primary in West Virginia

    Two states held primaries this week; the results:

    Nebraska Republican Governor primaryNebraska Democratic Governor primary
    West Virginia Republican House District 2 primaryWest Virginia Democratic House District 2 primary
    • 57% Barry Wendell
    • 43% Angela Dwyer

    Source: See additional issue coverage of Nebraska Governor race.

    Ohio elections results, Tuesday, May 3, 2022

    Gubernatorial and Senatorial primaries define the field

    Ohio has an early primary for both Governor and Senator, with a large field on the Republican side (but also Democratic contests). The results:

    Republican Governor primaryDemocratic Governor primary
    Republican Senate primaryDemocratic Senate primary

    Source: See additional issue coverage of Ohio Senate race and issue coverage of Ohio Governor race.

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